Politicos of all types and flavors love to prognosticate (a fancy word for guessing). We join the fun of conjecturing.
What will be the hottest topic of the upcoming Utah legislative session?
Cowley: Populism will be the entrée this session, served piping hot, just in time for an election year. Expect multiple bills addressing affordability, including gas prices, property taxes, utilities, health care and more.
Pignanelli: “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.” — Peter Drucker
In addition to Renae’s list, the predicted tight budget will impact deliberations. Also, this is an election year, so lawmakers will be articulating statements on a variety of issues sensitive to constituents, especially delegates. My advice is to enjoy the entertainment.
Will Plaintiff Map 1, selected by Judge Gibson, be what governs Utah’s upcoming congressional election?
Cowley: Yes, but not without another judicial ruling. The Utah Supreme Court will hear the Legislature’s appeal and leave the existing map in place. Utah is about to elect a liberal to Congress.
Pignanelli: The Utah Supreme Court will remand the matter back to Judge Gibson for another hearing to select a map proposed by the Legislature or the Boundary Commission. Thus, Map 1 disappears.
Will Democrats retake the majority in Congress?
Cowley: Democrats will retake the majority, but not by a huge margin nor through any great feat of their own. Chalk it up to the ebbs and flows of political tides that seem to emerge every midterm election. Team Trump will continue to rack up MAGA wins, which moderates and the far left will use as campaign fodder.
Pignanelli: History documents that the traditional dynamics are aligned for the Democrats to capture the House. But history has taken quite a beating lately, so projections should be based on how the economy is faring this summer.
Will Utah legislative Republicans lose seats or grow their supermajority in the upcoming elections?
Cowley: Without a counterbalancing influence from the right, Utah Republicans will lose seats in the House. This is not the result of sinking voter approval but rather the influx of money from out-of-state liberal entities that see an opportunity to grow their ranks. In the aftermath of the unions’ successful referendum signature gathering, CD2 gerrymandered for a liberal, and the strong possibility of both a referendum on Better Boundaries and Amendment D on the ballot, things are lining up for Democrats to make some inroads.
Pignanelli: Renae is correct, suggesting a Map 1 effect could result in GOP losses. But I predict, as detailed above, that a different map will be adopted. Consequently, the usual dynamics will be in play, including the economy, public safety, etc. to counterbalance (or support) external resources.
Will Trump gain or lose popularity with Republicans?
Cowley: Trump isn’t one to let grass grow under his feet, so this feverish pace of implementing policies will continue. This has the unfortunate consequence of creating more opportunities for voters to find fault with his agenda, or at least his methods for achieving it. His approval numbers will continue to sink slowly, but his ability to get things done will not be hampered one iota.
Pignanelli: After the United States Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s tariffs, congressional Republicans will find ways to quietly create distance.
Will the United States Supreme Court rule against Donald Trump in his imposition of tariffs?
Cowley: The court’s right-leaning justices juxtaposed with the clear language of the Constitution makes this one a toss-up. I give the tie to the runner (Trump).
Pignanelli: This may be the most consequential decision of the decade. The United States Constitution states that Congress, not the chief executive, has the authority to impose tariffs. Regardless of one’s feelings about the president or this policy, the clear language of the Constitution must be upheld. A different decision could lead to results that diminish our beloved document.
Will NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani fulfill his extreme campaign promises or will reality moderate his first year in office?
Cowley: It’s easy to talk the talk and harder to walk the walk, especially when it comes with a steep price tag. Mamdani will have to pay for his radical ideas, which won’t be easy. I see a lot of finger-pointing and do-nothing press conferences in his future.
Pignanelli: Mamdani’s opponents in three years will either point to programs that were implemented but caused serious economic issues or say that he was unable to effectuate any serious policies. He is in for a rough ride.
Predictions for ballot initiative outcomes?
Cowley: Amendment D fails. Repeal of Better Boundaries succeeds. Constitutional amendment publication requirements will pass. Raising the threshold of statewide initiatives that increase taxes to 60% passes overwhelmingly.
Pignanelli: After years of confusion, lawmakers will develop a disciplined and compelling message on these matters. The Constitutional amendments restoring legislative power to amend initiatives and amending notice requirements will secure support. The other initiatives also pass.
Our hopes for 2026?
Cowley: A safe, uncomplicated labor and delivery with a healthy baby boy. Did I mention my husband and I are expecting our first?!
Pignanelli: That Utah football overcomes portal challenges and assumes the rightful place as conference champion.