Utah’s redistricting issue continues to foster controversies. We, of course, explore them.
The Utah GOP hopes to repeal the 2018 Proposition 4 initiative by another initiative. The signature-gathering window has closed, and they claim to have submitted over 225,000 signatures (the threshold to qualify for the ballot is 140,748 in at least 26 out of 29 Senate districts). What happens now?
Cowley: Now begins the laborious process of verifying signatures while the opposition simultaneously tries to get signers to renege on their John Hancock. All signature-gathering efforts have an anticipated invalidation rate that organizers build into their strategy. Only time will tell if this overage is enough.
I predict they qualify for the ballot, where the real work begins. Regardless if they are successful in meeting the signature threshold, political commentators cannot help but compare the GOP’s signature count to that of organized labor’s less than a year ago in their effort to refer HB267 regarding public labor unions. Unions gathered 320,000 signatures, more than double the required amount.
Utah Republicans are getting complacent. It’s easy to do when we win by such huge margins. This initiative had support from Trump, Cox and Turning Point. They paid signature gatherers huge sums of money. To have all of these things in their favor only to be outshone by the union’s recent overwhelming success warrants examination of the party’s grassroots organizational capabilities.
Pignanelli: “The truth is in the details.” — Stephen King
Currently, the verification rate of signatures is 75%, guaranteeing ballot placement. But for the general election, the GOP faces similar headwinds in 2026 as in 2018, when the original initiative passed. This is another midterm election while Trump is president, which means lower turnout among a right-of-center electorate.
Polls indicate that a majority of Utahns support some form of a boundary commission, whether advisory or more robust. The existing structure will be jettisoned only through strategic messaging. An extreme partisan sledgehammer will not attract enough voters across the spectrum. Supporters of the repeal effort should respect Utahns’ intelligence and speak to the details of Proposition 4.
The Utah Independent Redistricting Commission is comprised of seven commissioners. The governor appoints the chairman, while legislative leadership selects the remaining six commissioners (three of whom may not have voted in a primary election in the last four years). The proposition severely restricts who can be named a commissioner, excluding former lobbyists, principals of businesses that employed a lobbyist, political candidates and persons in service appointments to the state. Utah’s talented business and community leaders who manage companies or nonprofits that hire lobbyists are sidelined.
My mother was a three-term member of the Holladay City Council. She revitalized the town’s economy and enacted anti-discrimination ordinances to protect citizens. But she, along with thousands of wonderful Utahns who fulfilled similar public service, was apparently unworthy because Proposition 4 forbade anyone who served in local government for four years prior to being appointed commissioner.
Proposition 4 institutionalized the statutory degradation of Utah citizens who vote in a primary election, assist in campaigns, hire lobbyists to protect their business interests or serve the public in some capacity. Publicizing this fact will garner support from across the political spectrum, as most Utahns abhor such nastiness.
This insult to my mom should be repudiated.
The Republican initiative isn’t the only ongoing effort to challenge the current map. What’s happening with the legal challenges?
Cowley: The Utah Supreme Court declined to intervene for now in the divisive game of map pingpong. A federal three-judge panel also declined to intercede. Utah is now stuck with a map that hands liberals a safe seat. Maybe it’s for the best. Voters are about to face the consequences of the progressive agenda. Perhaps that will spur conservatives to not take our supermajority for granted.
In light of this decision, little ol’ Utah could flip control of Congress. The eyes and deep pockets of special interest groups are fixed on the Beehive State.
Pignanelli: Three judges denied the request by several plaintiffs (including House of Representatives members Celeste Maloy and Burgess Owens) for a preliminary injunction preventing implementation of the state district court’s selected map. The only option left is to file an emergency application with a U.S. Supreme Court justice. Rumors are circulating that an appeal to Justice Neil Gorsuch is possible, but that is a long shot.
Judge Gibson’s map prevails, and the uncertainty is now over. What is next for incumbents and other candidates as the congressional filing period, March 9-13, approaches?
Cowley: McAdams isn’t wasting any time. He’s the first candidate to qualify for the ballot by gathering signatures.
Blouin is racking up endorsements from far-left, progressive groups.
Most incumbents and would-be challengers are pondering which district gives them the best shot at winning. Then there’s “Class-Act Kennedy," who is focusing on what really matters — serving Utahns, not plotting advantageous campaign strategies.
Pignanelli: Now that the legal circus is over, the only thing that is certain is that neither of the Republican incumbent members of Congress will be running in the deep blue District 1. So decisions will be made about who is running against whom or retiring.
Most of the Democratic contenders are experienced politicos. This promises a rowdy convention and an even wilder primary.