Recent polling unveils the favorability of politicians critical to Utah’s politics. Polls and politics are our favorite topics.
Ahead of Trump’s record-long State of the Union address, a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll revealed that 50% of Utahns (and 42% of Americans) approve of the president’s job performance. Will his speech affect this? More importantly, will the attacks on Iran improve or hurt approval ratings?
COWLEY: In his annual address, Trump enumerated his wins, admonished Democrats, and employed the predictable political parlor trick of trotting out American heroes. Trump’s long-winded speech won’t impact his approval rating. While his base remains pleased as punch, lukewarm backers are splintering off, causing his approval to dip slightly and Republicans’ midterm outlook to become murkier. Even his detractors have to admit he remains effective, respected, and feared.
In my lifetime, our great nation has almost continuously been engaged in Middle East conflicts, which we have neither won nor have they left these nations better off. I fear this will be no different.
Pollster Nate Silver forecast possible outcomes — if this war resolves quickly, Trump’s approval will increase through a “rallying-around-the-flag” effect. If this becomes a protracted battle with ballooning costs and a mounting death toll of American troops, approval will plummet.
PIGNANELLI: “We are seeing a very different Donald Trump in terms of foreign policy and what he thinks he needs to do within the Republican base and establishment.” — Sarah Isgur, ABC News.
Several media outlets claim that Trump’s “low” approval ratings are unusual. However, President Barack Obama at the same point in his administration — February of the second year of his second term — was also at 42% favorability. This level is the norm for 21st-century chief executives. The State of the Union address (which now seems a distant memory) will alone not move Trump’s numbers in Utah or the country.
Notwithstanding conventional thought to the contrary, a recent Politico poll exposed that 50% of Trump voters supported military action against Iran. Thus, the attack on Iran could be a short-term boost to popularity and, depending on the length, either solidify or disintegrate the base.
People my age and older remember the fall of the Shah in 1979 and the Americans held hostage for 444 days. This was further compounded by a failed rescue attempt, which partially led to the defeat of President Jimmy Carter against Ronald Reagan. The Iranian revolution also precipitated an energy crisis, which dramatically increased the cost of petroleum and fostered another recession. Consequently, in 1980, Reagan led to windfall electoral results in the country and Utah.
Forty-six years later, turmoil in Iran could affect the results this November. Furthermore, history suggests the 2028 elections in Utah may be determined by what happened this weekend.
The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll also disclosed favorable ratings for Utah’s U.S. senators. Forty-two percent approved of Sen. John Curtis, and 29% disapproved. When asked the same question of Sen. Mike Lee, 47% approved, and 37% disapproved. What does this reveal?
COWLEY: Curtis has shown a willingness to buck Trump while advocating for unique solutions to address Utah’s environmental concerns, palatable to conservatives. His awareness and approval increased 5% since last year, a significant jump in a short time.
Lee has a loyal following in Utah and nationally. He has emerged as a constitutional expert and one of Trump’s strongest supporters, earning him a shoutout from the President during the State of the Union.
Utah is represented by two strong Republican senators, each with their own style and priorities. Utah may appear to be a monolithic party state to the casual observer, but there are a lot of nuances among Republican voters, observable through the variations of our U.S. senators.
PIGNANELLI: The rising popularity of the freshman senator is directly attributed to his engaging personality. This is an especially critical advantage considering the general frustration many Utahns have toward the federal government.
Lee’s numbers reflect his aggressive engagement on many issues and he enjoys a core following among conservatives.
The relative popularity of both senators is especially interesting when considering their approach to Trump. Curtis has occasionally strategically distanced himself from some administrative objectives, while Lee has been more aligned. Both are very clear in their opinions, which resonates with Utahns.
The same poll found 52% of Utah voters approve of Gov. Spencer Cox’s performance in office. Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson received a nod from 34% of Utahns, but 44% were unsure. Any surprises in these results?
COWLEY: Cox remains popular because the state is doing well, and his style fits the cultural ethos of Utahns, transcending party lines.
Utah has a tradition of promoting lieutenant governors to governor, and insiders are speculating if Henderson will occupy the Kearns Mansion in two years. The role of lieutenant governor in most states is that of an understudy. In Utah, however, Henderson’s authority includes that of chief election officer. There have been some rifts over election administration and security, but it’s mostly insider baseball, relevant only to a small number of hard-line Republicans.
PIGNANELLI: Utah continues to excel in most lifestyle metrics, so I remain amazed that Cox’s result is not higher. I can assure the 44% that Henderson is a hardworking, dedicated public servant.
Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Email: capitolcowgirl@gmail.com
Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah Legislature. Email: frankp@xmission.com