Very few Utahns are alive who remember the political climate of the 1930s. We were one of the most liberal progressive states in the country. Because of redistricting, we will soon reenact portions of that legacy. We discuss the reasons and ramifications.
The new boundaries ordered by Judge Gibson created District 1 — one of the bluest in the country. Multiple Democratic contenders (and some Republicans) are lining up for a battle that, for the first time in many decades, guarantees a Democrat win. What can Utahns expect from this race? Will the primaries prove the old adage that Utah Democrats are more moderate than their counterparts, or are they very much to the left?
Cowley: Better Boundaries claimed to be the solution to partisan gerrymandering, but instead gave us more extreme, polarized districts on both sides of the aisle. Regardless of how you calculate the political divide (I see it as D+24), the doughnut-hole district amounts to a Democrat slam dunk.
In a recent town hall, Democratic candidates vying for CD1 all tried to out-liberal one another, pledging allegiance to the progressive agenda. Ben McAdams sat out the event, citing that his record speaks for itself. It was reminiscent of Trump declining to participate in Republican debates, but with full coffers, he’s a strong contender.
Republican candidates in this district deserve an honorable mention for carrying the GOP banner into a battle they will surely lose.
Pignanelli: “Opportunity does not knock, it presents itself when you beat down the door.” — Kyle Chandler
For decades, Utah liberals waged marvelous arguments among themselves while frustrated with no chance at the ballot box. But those pent-up emotions are about to explode with a potential victory.
Early in the 20th century, Democrats and progressives were active but had limited electoral success. Then came the Great Depression, and Utah suffered greatly. This resulted in Utah evolving into a very liberal state during the 1930s. Democrats controlled the federal delegation and held a supermajority in the Legislature. Utah will get a modern flavor for this leftward tilt in the upcoming Democratic convention and primary.
Renae accurately predicts that most candidates will try to outflank each other to the left. McAdams may be the exception to this tactic, trying to collect a plurality of moderate voters in a primary with multiple lefties.
The new congressional district election will retire the old canard that a Utah Democrat would be a Republican anywhere else. In a poll conducted by the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, 70% of Utah Democrats were sympathetic to socialism compared to 61% of their national counterparts. (Forty percent of local Democrats were more favorable to capitalism than 36% of other Democrats … so go figure). The current rhetoric surrounding the nomination does document that many Utah Democrats are further to the left than their colleagues across the country.
Thus, the excitement metric for left-wing Utah politicos is reviving a century-old dynamic.
By creating such a left-leaning district, the remaining three districts are very Republican, with partisanship scores of R+43, R+45 and R+55. How will this affect the incumbents and the overall races?
Cowley: With Rep. Burgess Owens hanging up his political cleats, it negates the need for incumbent infighting, allowing each to run their own race.
CD3 is a battle for the far right. Rep. Celeste Maloy drew a challenge from perennial candidate Phil Lyman. Lyman has a loyal following of militant conservatives, but Maloy isn’t without her own army of rural advocates. David Harris, a retired two-star general, is the dark horse in this race.
The reddest of red districts is CD2, where conservative queen Karianne Lisonbee is taking on well-funded incumbent Blake Moore. Lisonbee is going the convention-only route, while Moore chose convention and signatures. It will be interesting to see if this Republican bastion is a stronghold for the far right or for moderates.
Rep. Mike Kennedy elected to run in CD4. This is the most boring race on the ballot since Kennedy’s fellow candidates are all relatively unknown by comparison.
Pignanelli: One political operative humorously relabeled the 2018 Better Boundaries proposition, which fostered the new districts, as “Broken Boundaries.” His rationale is the lopsided result of Utah’s congressional map for the 2026 elections.
With all the left-wing candidates antagonizing conservative voters in the other three districts, this will drive incumbents and challengers to move even further to the right to prevail in the primary.
We can only hope that all this extreme politicking in 2026 will make moderation more fashionable in the future.
What will be the down-ballot effects of these races in all four districts?
Cowley: The deep-blue doughnut hole district could pose a problem for down-ballot Republicans vying for swing seats in Salt Lake County because of the increase in liberal turnout. The other three districts should have a positive net effect for Republican candidates in the general.
Pignanelli: The media flurry surrounding ultra-liberal warfare in the Democratic primary will highlight left-wing politics that Utahns have rarely encountered before. Politicos are making various predictions about the impact on other races in the state. Democrats will be energized in District 1, but so will right-wing voters throughout the entire state. The partisan divide will temporarily increase.