Within days, the military activities in Iran will have lasted a month. The effects on America’s military and economy are compounding. This means an impact on politics and Utah elections, which we explore.
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll revealed that 46% of Utahns approved of the military action in Iran, while 36% disapproved. Fifty-four percent believed President Donald Trump should have received approval from Congress. Seventy-four percent of Utah GOP members support this effort, while only 10% of Democrats and 30% of independents share that sentiment. Party conventions will be conducted in the next several weeks. How will this affect campaigns within both parties?
Cowley: Trump circumvented the need for congressional approval by invoking the War Powers Resolution of 1973, authorizing the President to engage in armed conflict without congressional approval for 60 to 90 days. It will be interesting to see if Sen. Mike Lee, the constitutional expert, holds the Commander in Chief to this timeline.
Congressional candidates will be asked by delegates and voters if they support military action in Iran, if they think the President should have sought congressional approval first and what they see as a successful resolution to the conflict. I anticipate responses will vary widely among Republican candidates — especially between convention and signature-gathering candidates — while Democratic candidates will finger-wag in unison.
Pignanelli: “This ‘Yosemite Sam’ strategy of firing wildly in all directions shows that diplomatic niceties are meaningless in dealing with fanatical, authoritarian regimes.” — Matthew Continetti, The Wall Street Journal
I grew up in an America where the horrors of World War II were enmeshed in most and guided how society approached international and even domestic concerns. Adjacent to this emotion was a belief that the early nonintervention attitude of the Allies allowed authoritarian regimes to expand and commit atrocities. This forced us to confront them at a greater expense than if they had been challenged earlier.
This lingering demeanor explains why people my generation and older who responded to this survey — and other similar polls — support some action in Iran. However, these sentiments are accompanied by a deep respect for the military, which demands that civilian political leaders have clear objectives and plans. Furthermore, we all expect our officials to communicate these goals from the beginning and throughout the engagement.
The younger generation endured wars that seemed to have no exit strategy and are less tolerant of interventions.
These different approaches, especially in GOP gatherings, will be displayed at the political conventions. Republican candidates will navigate between MAGA and traditionalists. Because Trump did not pursue the traditional route of communicating objectives at the outset and aggressively rallying the public, Democratic candidates will be steadfastly opposed.
Despite the political wrangling, all Americans and Utahns should be proud of the men and women who continue to exemplify quality, character and courage in our armed forces.
Iran has retaliated by blocking oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing gas prices to rise dramatically, which has exacerbated inflation and economic woes. How does this affect Trump’s approval rating and the June primaries?
Cowley: It’s not the bombs that will blow up Trump’s approval; it’s the oil price impacts. As Democratic strategist James Carville said, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Trump ran on the promise to lower the price of everyday goods. With gas prices skyrocketing over $1.20 in a month, many voters feel betrayed.
Trump loyalists seem to believe the Commander in Chief can do no wrong. Polling shows Trump’s base remains unshaken. Yet among other voters, his approval is sinking faster than the Iranian Navy. Trump’s diminishing popularity may affect his ability to push policies, but it matters even more to Republican midterm candidates who will be impacted by declining GOP momentum. Luckily, Democrats continue to struggle with identifying a winning message.
Battle lines are drawn inside the Republican Party, especially with MAGA voters. Veteran and conservative superstar Joe Kent’s resignation is evidence of these rifts. Infighting is increasing because many MAGA supporters believe “America First” means being noninterventionists — myself included. We don’t want to instigate another forever war in the Middle East.
Pignanelli: The Utah primaries will definitely reflect the national trends. If peace is established and a new government is installed, those candidates aligned with such goals will be rewarded. But if, by Memorial Day, the economy struggles amid a conflict that seems to have no end, noninterventionist Republicans and Democrats will benefit.
The military campaign could escalate and continue for six months and beyond. What are the long-term effects on local elections and politics?
Cowley: History will prove Trump either a military genius or a President Bush 2.0, warning of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. If the conflict persists, gas prices continue to rise and Republican approval declines, Democrats nationwide will have successful midterm elections. Locally, the Democrat doughnut hole district could increase that blue wave.
Pignanelli: The 2003 Iraqi invasion offers a guidebook for the effects on politics. Frustration and confusion caused by that adventure started the current cracks within the GOP. If the action against Iran is perceived as wasteful, both parties will have a strong noninterventionist element. Conversely, a perceived success will dramatically alter foreign relations. Each party will be expected to develop strategies for confronting other opponents.