National surveys reveal shifting political alliances, including those with deep religious convictions. Recent activities also defy the standard partisan formula. We explore the applications for Utah politics.
A recent Cooperative Election Study showed Republicans losing support nationally and in Utah, especially with some members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Democrats and unaffiliated equally benefited from the shift. What’s happening, and is the GOP in danger of losing this once reliable demographic?
Cowley: Republican leaders should be cognizant of this trend, but it’s far from forecasting the downfall of the party. Yes, the 20-year trend captures a small percentage of Latter-day Saint voters abandoning the GOP to register as Democrat or unaffiliated equally. Yet, other religious groups are leaving the Democratic Party, also opting to be unaffiliated. The bottom line is there is a souring on Republican antics, but the Democratic platform lacks the sizzle to bring migrating voters into their tent.
As noted by Quin Monson, these numbers likely capture the emergence of young Latter-day Saint voters affiliating as Democrats more than their predecessors, not necessarily a change of heart from the demographic as a whole.
General conference reminded us that Utah’s predominant religion espouses civility. When the Republican standard-bearer (Trump) is known for brashness, it has a chilling effect on some church members. Once Trump is out of the White House, these voters will return to their origins, just like the prodigal son.
LDS voters make up less than 2% of the electorate, so on the national stage, this shift is less impactful; but in states like Utah, Idaho and Arizona, the change in this voting bloc is significant.
Pignanelli: “What is surprising, and of likely grave concern to the White House, are the dips in support from the very groups that helped Trump take back the presidency in 2024.”— Tatishe Nteta, pollster, UMass Amherst
A Utah native, I grew to appreciate the deep undercurrents that influence the decisions of residents in groups and as individuals. For more than half a century, many ancestors to our state’s citizens endured horrific discrimination, causing destruction, injury and death. Even worse, these terrible acts were often committed with official government authority.
Thus, there is an underlying antipathy toward bullying, especially by the federal government. This usually appears in disputes surrounding public lands and welfare programs. Further, because of this background, insults and targeted actions against innocent immigrants and refugees are not tolerated.
Therefore, how the federal government is treating people without criminal convictions (including citizens) is disconcerting for church members.
This regret is reflected across the country in other groups.
National and local Republican officials should understand what is percolating and develop countering messages; otherwise, the midterms could have problems for them throughout the ballot.
What does the failure of the GOP’s initiative to reverse Better Boundaries mean? Is this further evidence of voters moving away from the Republican Party, and what does it mean for elections?
Cowley: Organizers of signature-gathering campaigns incorporate an expected invalidation rate into their total signature goal. The GOP’s initiative invalidation rate was 25% — higher than most. They left no room for error, barely meeting the county qualification (26 of 29). The opposition mounted a signature removal campaign removing an impressive 10,000 signatures to keep it off the ballot. Removal efforts are laborious and expensive, as I experienced in multiple similar campaigns.
This should serve as a wake-up call to Utah Republicans. A bare minimum grassroots effort, combined with an assumption that with enough money and high profile endorsements that the initiative would prevail, is a recipe for disaster. For too long, we have rested on our laurels. To preserve Utah’s values, Republicans need to stand up and defend them or risk becoming Arizona, Colorado or Nevada. There is blood in the water. Liberal leaders see Utah as ripe for upheaval. It will take time for conservatives to build a robust engagement infrastructure. So, to any Republican leaders contemplating running Amendment D this year — I urge you to reconsider.
Pignanelli: Republican operatives usually work at the other end of initiatives, so they were unprepared to defend against a massive campaign to remove signatures. The outcome defied predictions, which will foster greater interest in initiatives by national special interest groups in the near future.
Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson sent letters to 300,000 voters informing them that per SB153 becoming law, their voting records are about to become public. The LG also pushed against an executive order from Trump, attempting to create a national list of eligible voters. How will this impact elections?
Cowley: You’ve heard arguments about public voting records warding off voter fraud but having better data makes running for office more attainable to candidates without overflowing coffers.
Running for office is expensive and time-consuming. When candidates know who their constituents are, they can better allocate campaign resources.
Pignanelli: I recall when legislation was passed to keep such records unavailable. This was driven by fear that access to them would result in harm and fraud. Yet, instances of such conduct was never revealed. The same unsubstantiated emotion is driving demands for a national citizen list. Protections exist to prevent mischief, but also allow safe access for our elections.