An earlier version of this article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Friday mornings here.
Hello, friends. By the time you’re reading this, I’m likely somewhere in the Senate basement, anxiously waiting to see if I need to cancel my weekend plans.
The government is scheduled to shut down at midnight later tonight, and we are expecting a vote later today that would extend government funding through the end of September. Senate Democrats have been mulling this decision over the last week as they’ve been faced with a lose-lose dilemma. I broke down that decision here.
More on that later. But first, let’s check in on how Democrats are doing … and how the party is grasping for a reset after an election cycle that left them with no power in Washington.
The big idea
House Democrats push for reset in attempt to win back Congress
House Democrats are gathering in Leesburg, Virginia, this week for their annual policy retreat where party members discuss messaging and strategy for the upcoming year.
And this one comes at a critical time for the party: Democrats sit in the minority of both the House and Senate, giving them virtually no power in Washington. Now they must band together ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in an attempt to flip the House and gain some sense of leverage against Republicans.
Luckily for Democrats, history is on their side.
Historical trends show that the party of the sitting president typically loses control of the House during the midterm elections, giving the minority party an edge. One of the exceptions to that came during George W. Bush’s first term, when Republicans actually gained seats in the House after the 9/11 attacks.
But with Republicans in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Democrats are scrambling to regroup and pinpoint their messaging tactics before the 2026 cycle begins in earnest.
Much of that message will focus on the Trump administration’s efforts to slash government spending, particularly multibillionaire Elon Musk’s role in purging the federal workforce. Democrats have already started their attacks by accusing Republicans of seeking to dismantle Medicaid and other welfare programs — and party leaders are hoping to make those concerns a top issue.
“Our job over the next 21 months is to make sure that voters are hearing this message loud and clear, and we’re going to keep repeating it over,” Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., chairwoman of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, said on Wednesday.
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., reiterated those plans, telling reporters the party would focus their message on supporting the working class while accusing Republicans of working for the wealthy, with Musk as a prime example.
(Expect Musk to appear in many campaign ads over the next year and a half.)
Meanwhile, a few Democrats I spoke with said they want to hear more from party leaders about outreach tactics, noting that’s become a major discussion point in the aftermath of the 2024 election.
“I think a big reason we lost (in 2024) was around communications, and they’ve already really been talking a lot about that (and) what we did wrong,” Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., told me ahead of the retreat. “Republicans really outflanked us on the podcasts and those networks. They had all these top podcasters I’d never even heard of until the day after the election.”
“But we’re trying to catch up,” he added. “It’s going to take some time. So I think that’s going to be a big piece.”
On the other hand, Republicans are confident they will not only defend their slim majority in the House but actually expand it next November.
“We’re in a very strong position to defy what is the norm,” Johnson told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s not traditionally expected for a new president to pick up seats in the first two years of his term for his party, but we are going to grow the majority next year and we have a great plan to do that.”
3+ things to know
- From the Hill: These new moms want to change how Congress votes. … Senate Democrats to provide votes for Trump-backed resolution to avoid government shutdown … Utah lawmakers team up to block ‘Wall Street’ control of state public lands. … Utah Rep. Burgess Owens hopes to ‘modernize’ distance education funding policies at for-profit colleges.
- From the White House: Trump has just one Cabinet position left to confirm. … But he dropped his choice to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over his vaccine comments. … White House offers warning to colleges: Protect your Jewish students or face consequences.
- From the courts: The Supreme Court turns down religious discrimination case over 2 justices’ objections. … Judge orders Trump to rehire workers purged in mass firings across multiple agencies.
How Trump did the impossible: Convincing ‘Never CR Republicans’ to support his edition
The Senate appears poised to avoid a shutdown after top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said he would vote to end the filibuster, paving the way for Republicans to pass their funding package.
The decision comes after days of intense discussions between Democrats as they debated which was the lesser of two evils: Shut down the government or allow the Trump administration to continue passing policies they disagree with.
But a big reason Senate Democrats got squeezed so hard was in no small part because of President Donald Trump.
After a massive whip effort by Trump and other White House officials earlier this week, the president managed to get nearly every House Republican to vote for his yearlong CR. In doing so, Republicans were able to pass their own funding bill without any Democratic support — something House GOP leaders have attempted (and failed to accomplish) over the last two years.
And many of those GOP holdouts say it was all due to Trump.
“There is no way the CR would have passed had it not been for Trump and his team,” Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo., a typical CR naysayer, told me.
Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., also credited Trump for the House passage of the CR, telling me in a phone call that the president did “what everybody should do in the political arena.”
“I don’t like CRs. I don’t vote for them, it’s no way to do business,” Norman told me. “I can’t give (Trump) enough credit. He did one thing that politicians don’t do. He listened. … Him and JD Vance did a great job of walking us through why we need to do this.”
Because of Trump’s efforts, House Republicans were able to send their CR over to the Senate and skip town by Wednesday, making it Senate Democrats’ problem to choose to avoid a government shutdown or not.
And some Senate Democrats acknowledged that move took away any leverage they had.
“The only time we had any leverage (was if) the Republican needed our votes in the House. The GOP delivered and that effectively iced us out,” Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said on Thursday. “And that forces us to say, ‘Are you gonna shut the government down? Or are you gonna vote for a flawed CR?’ And now for me, I refuse to shut the government down.”
Fetterman was the first Senate Democrat to say he would vote for the House GOP-led CR to avoid a shutdown.
What’s next
The Senate is set to vote on ending the filibuster on Friday morning, with a vote on the full package sometime later in the day. We’re not yet sure when, as Senate procedural rules will force party leaders to come to some kind of time agreement.
After that, the House and Senate are both scheduled to go on recess for the next week. So it’ll be quiet on Capitol Hill (for once!).
In the meantime, reach me by email or follow me on X for more timely updates from the Hill.