WASHINGTON — National Democrats are turning their attention to Utah after a district judge ordered state lawmakers to redraw its congressional map, possibly thrusting the Beehive State into the national redistricting war ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Utah 3rd District Judge Dianna Gibson ruled on Monday that the state Legislature illegally gerrymandered the current congressional boundaries, ordering state lawmakers to redraw the map within the next 30 days. Doing so could put a larger portion of Salt Lake City into one district rather than the current map that has it divided between the four congressional districts.
If that happens, Democrats argue the seat could be up for grabs — and give them opportunity to flip a key district as they battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“I think it absolutely can be in play depending on what the maps end up looking like,” a Democratic operative told the Deseret News. “We’re going to compete wherever is necessary to win the majority. And we are keeping an eye on what’s going on in Utah, and we will stand ready to compete there if we need to.”
Under Gibson’s ruling, the state Legislature must submit a new map that adheres to anti-gerrymandering rules passed under the citizen-led initiative known as Proposition 4, which was at the center of the lawsuit. The quick timeline would ensure a new map could be in place before the Nov. 1 deadline and be used in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Utah Legislature could still appeal Gibson’s decision to the state Supreme Court, which would delay the redrawing if the court decided to take up the case. That could mean a new map wouldn’t be in play until at least the 2028 election cycle.
But Democrats appear bullish with their chances, with multiple operatives telling the Deseret News they believe Gibson’s timeline will remain in place.
“I respectfully disagree with the assessment that it might be and probably will be delayed until 2028,” a Democratic operative, who requested anonymity to discuss national strategy, said. “From our perspective, they seem to think (it can be done) pretty quickly. So, it could absolutely be in play this cycle because Salt Lake City used to be a Democratic seat, and if they draw a map that is in accordance with Prop 4, which essentially means they can’t crack Salt Lake City, it should be at least one safe, blue seat.”
Another operative told the Deseret News that if the maps are set in stone by next November, Salt Lake City should be considered a Democratic-advantaged district.
Democrats are likely envisioning a map where Utah’s 4th District, currently held by Rep. Burgess Owens and rated as an R+14 seat, encompasses a majority of Salt Lake City — similar to how it did before the new boundaries were established in 2022.
The 4th District was first established in 2013, after which it ping-ponged between Democratic and Republican control until the end of the decade. Both the races in 2018, when Democrat Ben McAdams unseated former Rep. Mia Love, and in 2020, when Owens defeated McAdams, were decided by less than 1 percentage point.
An independent redistricting commission proposed several maps in 2021 that would’ve made the 4th District even more Democratic, although those were rejected by the state Legislature. Instead, lawmakers divided Salt Lake City between the districts, solidifying GOP control of all four seats.
Now that the Legislature must redraw the maps, it may need to return to those proposals that give Democrats an edge in the capital city.
“It seemed very, very unlikely to me that we would get that new map in place for 2026 prior to the decision coming out, but with the timelines that have been set already ... it seems like there’s maybe a 50-50 shot that we actually have something in place for 2026,” state Sen. Nate Blouin, D-Salt Lake City, who has been vocal about overturning the current congressional map, told the Deseret News in an interview.
Blouin said he has talked to Democrats in Washington, D.C., who seem to have a renewed sense of hope that the party can crack into the Republican stronghold for the first time since McAdams was defeated.
The decision quickly captured the attention of national groups such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ main fundraising arm, and the Democratic National Committee — with both groups issuing statements in support of Gibson’s ruling shortly after it was issued.
“Utah Republicans gerrymandered the maps because they knew they were losing power in the state, and they attempted to stop Democratic gains in the state,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. “With this ruling, power is back in the hands of everyday Utahns to be able to choose their representatives, instead of Donald Trump and Republicans.”
“Every seat counts,” he added, “and Democrats everywhere are fired up and ready to take back the House in the midterms in 2026.”
Democrats only need to net three seats in the 2026 midterm elections to wrest control of the House. The party also has historical precedence on its side as trends show that the party of the sitting president typically loses control of the House during midterm elections.
The news has also sparked local interest, Blouin said, calling it a “huge opportunity” for Democrats who want to run for federal office.
“There’s been very little attention on Utah from a Democratic perspective (in recent years), and so that makes it tough to get people excited for legislative races,” Blouin said. “So this is definitely an opportunity, if we have more of a left-leaning seat, to really run a strong campaign.”
Gibson scheduled a status conference for Friday at 10 a.m., during which the judge will schedule next steps for the map redrawing.