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Hello, friends. Happy shutdown week.
It’s my first shutdown that I’ve covered while being a journalist (the last one happened when I was a sophomore in college!), and so far it hasn’t been as chaotic as I thought it would be. In fact, lawmakers are really slow-walking negotiations. But more on that later.
And to my fellow Taylor Swift fans, I hope you’re enjoying the latest album drop. Let me know which songs are your favorites!
— Cami Mondeaux
The Big Idea
The shutdown is dominating political messaging. But will voters remember in November?
It’s Day 3 of the federal shutdown. And all signs point to a dragged-out fight mostly featuring political posturing and possibly thousands of people being furloughed from their jobs.
But aside from the immediate impacts, both political parties are gearing up for the political implications — especially how they can use this shutdown to notch some early wins ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. At that time, the House will be up for grabs and it’s a true toss-up for which party will win control.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the main campaign arm for House Republicans, has already started running ads against vulnerable Democrats to place the blame of a shutdown squarely on their shoulders.
“Democrats refused to fund the government. So now military troops, police and Border Patrol lose their paychecks. Because of Democrats, veterans, farmers, small businesses lose critical funding,” one ad says. “Democrats are grinding America to a halt in order to give illegal immigrants free healthcare. Tell Democrats: Stop the shutdown.”
But Democrats are getting in on the action, too. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which does the campaigning for House Democrats, has been circulating a memo with the party’s main talking points: Republicans are causing a health care crisis.
“After voting for the one of the most unpopular pieces of legislation in modern American history, Republicans launched an unprecedented attack on health care in service of their billionaire donors,” the memo reads. “House Democrats will continue to highlight that contrast from now until Election Day.”
But it got me thinking. Is this shutdown really going to make a difference in an election 13 months from now?
Let’s be real: Voters have historically short-term memories. The internal politics and drama of this shutdown likely won’t have much sway. And Republicans seem to acknowledge that — and argue that all anyone will remember is Democrats voting against a spending bill.
“House Democrats are on the record that they voted to shut down the government. That’s a fact. There’s no arguing that,” Will Kiley, a communications director for the NRCC, told me this week. “You know, we make arguments as to why — whatever. But there’s an explicit fact that they voted no on government funding, and that will be used by us going forward.”
Zoom out: Democrats’ whole argument to shut down the government is that they’re upset with the Trump administration unilaterally slashing federal funding, especially for programs that have already been approved by Congress. But there’s nothing they can do about that — so instead, they’ve focused their message on demands to reverse the cuts to Medicare and other health care programs that Republicans approved in July.
By making the shutdown about health care, Democrats say that’s the message that will resonate with everyday people.
“They hit it just right by tying this thing to healthcare. I think millions of Americans are concerned about losing health care benefits,” Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, told me this week.
Bannon acknowledged to me that the shutdown itself has “limited capacity” to be campaigned on next November. But “it’s not the shutdown that’s important to Democrats,” he says.
“Donald Trump promised to bring prices down on Day 1 of the second administration, and then pointing out that prices, including health care costs, continue to go up — Now that has a lot of staying power,” he said.
But how much does talk of health care premiums and tax credit subsidies really hit home for voters? They are complicated issues, and it’s caused Democrats to go into overtime explaining their demands and what it all means for the everyday consumer.
And it’s that overexplanation that is a sign of a losing argument, Republicans will argue.
“I think that it builds into a larger narrative of them not being focused on the main issues,” a GOP strategist involved with campaigning told me. “I don’t think their health care message is really going to work, because the fact is, they voted to shut down the government. They can do the ‘Oh, well, here’s why,’ or whatever, but people don’t buy it. I think when you’re explaining you’re losing, is the old adage.”
It’ll take time for us to know for sure whether this will be a winning or losing strategy in terms of elections. But first, lawmakers need to find the exit ramp.
— Cami Mondeaux
Stories driving the week
- Utah map drama: The Utah Republican Party is pushing voters to support a proposed congressional map they view as the most favorable to incumbent Republicans as part of their efforts to preserve their GOP stronghold in Congress in next year’s midterms.
- Shutdown off-ramp: A group of roughly a dozen senators gathered on the Senate floor during votes on Wednesday to discuss possible backup plans to reopen the government, suggesting a number of different options that could garner bipartisan support. No plan has been finalized, according to senators involved with the conversation, but it’s opened the door to negotiations.
- Government chopping block: President Donald Trump will meet with the Office of Budget and Management to determine which government agencies and programs should receive spending cuts during the federal shutdown — hinting that Democratic-aligned projects will be targeted.
Republicans throw cold water on bipartisan backup plan
A bipartisan group of senators is quietly negotiating to secure a deal on government funding — but those efforts may be futile, according to top Republican leaders.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., brushed off the idea of any changes to the Republican spending resolution that passed the House in mid-September, and seemed to reject any negotiations at all.
“Don’t ask the Republicans what we should be doing or what we should be negotiating,” Johnson told reporters on Thursday morning. “I don’t have anything to negotiate.”
And his counterpart in the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., seemed unenthused himself when asked about it later that day.
“And what? The House is going to come back and vote on a one month as opposed to seven weeks?” Thune said. “I mean, think about this right now. We’re really quibbling over pretty small stuff.”
That appears to put a halt on any bipartisan backup plan — but it doesn’t mean an alternative bill is impossible. Lawmakers could very well get antsy if this shutdown continues to last through the end of next week.
Thune has also been adamant that these kinds of negotiations can’t happen unless the government is reopened, basically saying that Democrats have to swallow the GOP resolution before they can get anything in return.
“It all starts with, as I’ve said before, reopening the government,” Thune said. “That’s going to happen first.”
— Cami Mondeaux
Quick hits
From the Hill: Sen. Mike Lee wants to prevent safety delays on public transit. … Here’s how a shutdown affects the country. … Arizona’s gubernatorial race heats up as Rep. David Schweikert jumps in.
From the White House: Trump signs order to use artificial intelligence in pediatric cancer research. … Trump continues to send National Guard to cities. … Americans view Trump, all congressional leaders negatively, according to poll.
From the courts: Supreme Court to decide fate of Trump’s attempted Fed firing. … Federal judge delivers scathing rebuke of Trump over free speech crackdown.
What’s next
The Senate will vote again on the competing spending resolutions on Friday, which are likely to fail for the fourth time. Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., says the Senate will then recess for the weekend — giving Democrats time “to think,” he said — and they’ll come back on Monday.
The House canceled votes next week as GOP leaders try to ramp up the pressure on Senate Democrats. That will delay any action on the Epstein files, and it will mean Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva wil need to wait even longer to get sworn in after winning her special election last month.
As always, feel free to reach out to me by email with story ideas or questions you have for lawmakers. And follow me on X for breaking news and timely developments from the Hill.