Every 10 years, the U.S. Census Bureau reports population-based reapportionment among states to distribute the 435 seats in the House of Representatives relative to the state’s population change.
After reapportionment has been decided and approved by Congress, lawmakers in each state will redraw boundaries that create legislative districts with a roughly equal number of constituents in each district. It’s a state-level process governed by different rules depending on the state.
Redistricting has long been a contentious issue across the country, with those in power looking to rig maps to favor certain candidates or political parties. The practice of changing district boundaries to favor one party is commonly known as gerrymandering.
In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that gerrymandered maps can’t be challenged in federal courts because redistricting is an inherently political matter. Since then, gerrymandering has only increased, the Brennan Center for Justice found. And in 2006, the court upheld a state’s right to perform mid-decade redistricting, which does not require the state to rely on census data or population changes.
Republicans currently hold a slim 219-213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the party is concerned about holding its majority come 2026 — particularly as historical data shows the House flipping control in midterm elections and knowing Democrats will put up a fierce fight to win back the chamber.
Congressional maps drawn after the 2020 census were expected to hold until 2030, but instead lawmakers are looking to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms. The battle over congressional maps started this past summer in Texas.
Texas maps kickstart the fight
In July, President Donald Trump held a call with members of Texas’ Republican congressional delegation and told them the state would seek five new seats the GOP could win through redistricting, The Associated Press reported at the time.
It was the first sign that Trump was looking to not repeat what happened during his first presidency, when Democrats flipped the House just two years into his term. The unusual move to redistrict mid-decade has now sparked a developing partisan battle over House seats as Democrat-led states are also redrawing their maps.
Trump told reporters in July that “Texas will be the biggest” state to add GOP-friendly districts. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called a special session that month and another in August, where a new congressional map was passed by state lawmakers and eventually signed into law.
Abbott celebrated in a post online, saying he signed the “One Big Beautiful Map” into law. He said Texas will be “more RED in Congress,” with the new seats bringing the state’s makeup to a possible 30 Republican seats to eight Democratic seats.
With the new map, if not overturned by courts, Republicans hope to gain five more House seats in the 2026 election. The move was at first protested by state Democrats, but later gained the attention of lawmakers in other states.
On the ballot and in the state Legislature
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, declared “game on” to Texas’ plan and signed a measure instructing his state Legislature to redraw California’s maps in a way that could counteract the GOP pickups in Texas.
California will hold a special election on Tuesday, Nov. 4, where voters will cast ballots on Proposition 50, which would override a state law meant to make the redistricting process less partisan. If voters agree to temporarily override the law, a new map would be instituted for the state’s congressional districts for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections, that would give Democrats the edge in five additional districts.
Missouri then called a special session to redraw the state’s map, looking to gain one GOP seat. The map was signed into law by Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe in late September. The map is being challenged in court and could be frozen until after the 2026 election if enough signatures are gathered by a group looking to overturn the legislature’s actions.
North Carolina Republicans followed suit and announced new plans for a redistricting session in October to gain an extra GOP seat. The map was passed by the state Legislature, and while Democratic Gov. Josh Stein has publicly opposed it, he has virtually no veto power when it comes to redistricting.
A Republican-led panel in Ohio on Friday adopted new House districts that would boost Republicans’ chances of winning two additional seats in next year’s elections. Unlike other states, Ohio was required by the state constitution to revise maps after the 2020 version was adopted without bipartisan support. After the panel’s approval, Ohio became the fourth state where Republican lawmakers revised congressional districts in their favor.
Utah has been engaged in its own legal battle since 2021, when new maps were put in place in the state following the census, but a judge struck the districts down after lawmakers rewrote legislation passed as part of an initiative. Several versions of proposed maps were presented to a Legislative Redistricting Committee made up of state lawmakers, and the approved map was sent to a district court judge for approval in early October.
The map that could be in place next November would give Democrats a fighting chance in one or two districts that previously heavily favored Republicans. However, it’s not set in stone. State Republicans are looking to pass an initiative rescinding the original ballot measure that set the redistricting process.
In Virginia, redrawing maps is on the table and if passed, it would be one of the few states with a Democratic-led legislature to join the national fight. However, on Tuesday, all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for reelection and Democrats would need to keep their slim majority in order to pass a new map next year before going to voters, the AP reported.
Several other states have proposed redoing their maps or expressed interest in joining in the national redistricting arms race, including New York, Maryland, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.
What it could mean for next year’s elections
Historically, the party that controls the White House will almost always lose ground in midterm elections in the House. In the last 20 out of 22 midterm elections dating back to 1938, the president’s party has lost ground in the House. The only exceptions were shaped by unusual circumstances, including the response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and former President Bill Clinton’s impeachment process, Brookings noted in a report.
Since Trump returned to the White House earlier this year, he’s enjoyed the support of a slim yet united Republican majority in both the House and Senate. During Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and Democrats took the majority for the later half of his term. It’s an election outcome the president is obviously trying to avoid this time around.
While history isn’t on Trump’s side heading into 2026, he may achieve his goal through redistricting. Brookings pointed out that the more House seats a president’s party holds, the larger the group’s losses tend to be in the midterms.
The GOP currently holds a slim majority in the House, 219-213, which will soon become 214 Democrats once Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, Ariz., is sworn in. That leaves just five more Republicans than Democrats — and the GOP’s efforts to redistrict, if successful, could give the party upward of 15 new seats that could outweigh any efforts by Democratic-led states to counteract the GOP gains.
Still, current polling may be in Democrats’ favor. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics taken in late October show Democrats with a very slim lead of 2.7 percentage points over Republicans in the 2026 generic congressional vote survey spread. A “blue wave,” given historical context, could still happen even if GOP redistricting is successful.