WASHINGTON — Democrats are closely watching statewide elections on Tuesday night with hopes that President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and growing political fatigue on the government shutdown can catapult them to big wins.
Voters will cast ballots for a new governor in Virginia and New Jersey, where Democrats are expected to win both. New York City residents will also choose a new mayor and California voters are set to decide whether to eliminate a handful of Republican districts in the state with a new midterm congressional map.
But the Democratic Party is also struggling with historically low approval ratings, and Republicans say the New York City mayoral race shows the party is moving to the left of most Americans.
“Clearly, America is heading in the wrong direction, and there is a better way that Democrats are offering,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., told reporters on Monday. “That’s why I believe we’re going to see significant Democratic victories across America, including in New Jersey, in Virginia and in California.”
While Democrats have rejected accusations from their Republican colleagues that they are leveraging the government shutdown for political purposes, several in the party have acknowledged they could benefit from the stalemate in Congress.
“I honestly don’t like to think about that in that kind of way,” Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., whose state will elect a new governor on Tuesday, told reporters last week. “I think the election in New Jersey is going to, in part, be a reaction to just the recklessness of how Trump has been governing, or their lack thereof of actually governing.”
Other lawmakers in Virginia and New York shared similar sentiments, telling the Deseret News there are several aspects they will be watching as ballots are counted on election night.
Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said he would be keeping an eye on rural areas in the state that have historically supported Trump in past elections, noting any movement there would indicate strong momentum for Democrats.
“I spend a lot of time in those parts of Virginia, and I can tell you folks there are feeling the squeeze. They’re paying more for health care because of this administration’s attacks on the Affordable Care Act. They’re facing higher costs thanks to reckless tariffs that have driven up prices on everything from groceries to farm equipment,” Warner told the Deseret News. “And despite all the tough talk, families, farmers, and small businesses in rural America are still waiting on the economic relief and stability they were promised. So I’ll be watching how those voters are responding on election night.”
Despite not being on the ballot until next year, and even though this year’s big races are primarily in blue states, House Democrats say that Tuesday night’s results will provide a pulse check for how voters view the two major parties before the 2026 midterms, at which point the two chambers of Congress will be up for grabs.
Virginia’s off-year elections have acted as a bellwether over the last decade, especially during its governor’s races that occur one year after the presidential election.
Those races have typically resulted in the party opposite of the recently elected president receiving a surge in the off-year contests. For example, Democrat Ralph Northam won by a record-high margin in 2017 after Trump won the year before and Republican Glenn Youngkin flipped the seat in 2021 after former President Joe Biden’s win.
“The margins for statewide and legislative races led by Abigail Spanberger will tell a story tomorrow that is a Virginia story first, but if you talk to voters here, national events and what the president has done are a major factor,” Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., told the Deseret News. “There’s no question that the Virginia elections are a referendum on this president and his Republican allies, who currently have total control of government in Washington and of statewide executive offices in Virginia.”
“Abigail Spanberger herself is in a position to show what may happen in 2026, especially if costs of groceries, health care, electricity, and other key items continue to rise with no action by Republicans to address them,” Beyer added, referring to Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger who is currently leading in the polls.
In addition to the two governor’s races, Democrats will also want to keep a close eye on the mayoral contest in New York City. Zohran Mamdani, the party’s candidate and member of the democratic socialists, is leading the polls and has garnered national attention for his policy ideas.
Mamdani’s campaign has put traditional Democrats at somewhat of a crossroads as the 34-year-old candidate has motivated turnout among young educated voters — but he’s also opened the party up to attacks from Republicans that the party is heading down a “communist path.”
“You’ve got big elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the governor’s races and transgenders races, etc, but all the attention is focused primarily on New York City. Why?” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said on Monday. “Because of fear. The fear that Mamdani and all that he represents will be rising to power, that he will be elected the mayor of America’s largest city, the once cradle of capitalism, that we’re going to have a Marxist, a communist, running the largest city.”
That fear, Johnson argued, is why Democrats have been insistent on keeping the government shut down — an accusation that Jeffries denied.
“That is a ridiculous characterization when we consistently have been on the right side of the American people,” Jeffries said. “On the economy, on healthcare, on nutritional assistance, on the rule of law, on standing up for law-abiding immigrant communities, on defending our history, on the American way of life, and, of course, on democracy itself.”
Those issues, and others, Jeffries said would prove on Election Day “that we’re on the right side of the American people.”