Thanksgiving dinner prices will be lower this year, even though the overall cost of living in the United States rose in 2025.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, this year Americans will see a “moderate decline” in prices for their annual Thanksgiving dinners — but the cost of living in the U.S. has risen about 3% over the last year.
The two statistics have left each political party pointing fingers about what costs Americans will see this holiday season.
Thanksgiving staples drop in price
This year marked the 40th year that the group has surveyed the prices of Thanksgiving dinner items to find the average cost Americans will pay. The federation uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey the prices in the first week of November.
They found that this year, a dinner for 10 people costs $55.18, which is about $5.52 per person. It’s a 5% decline in cost from 2024 and marks the third straight year that prices have dropped from a previous record high of $64.05 in 2022.
The table’s “centerpiece,” as American Farm Bureau Federation describes it, the turkey, dramatically decreased in price this year. In 2025, the average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey is $21.50, down more than 16% from last year.
The organization notes that the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, but grocery stores are featuring Thanksgiving deals in the hopes to “draw consumer demand back to turkey” which would lower retail costs.
The Associated Press noted that the price for wholesale turkey was expected to rise 44% this year and avian viruses are a big reason why.
“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” AFBF economist Faith Parum said in a statement. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey will remain an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
American Farm Bureau Federation surveys the prices for fresh cranberries, but if your family opts for canned jellied cranberry sauce, prices could be higher this year. The AP noted that canned goods may be more expensive as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have led to suppliers raising prices.
Still, half of the items AFBF examined have declined in price this year, including dinner rolls and stuffing. Fresh vegetables increased, however, and the federation noted that since they are traditionally low-cost items, the impacts could be felt in Americans’ wallets.
Here’s the facts from this year’s AFBF survey:
- Turkey (16 pound): $21.50
- Cranberries (12 ounce): $2.28
- Sweet potatoes (3 pound): $4.00
- Carrots and celery (½ pound each): $1.36
- Green peas (16 ounce): $2.03
- 9-inch pie shells (2): $3.37
- Cube stuffing (14 ounce): $3.71
- Dinner rolls (1 dozen): $3.56
- Pumpkin pie mix (30 ounce): $4.16
- Whole milk (1 gallon): $3.73
- Whipping cream (½ pint): $1.87
Overall costs for 10 people:
- 2022: $64.05
- 2023: $61.17
- 2024: $58.08
- 2025: $55.18
What about the cost of living?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of prices paid by consumers, finds that from September 2024 to September 2025, the cost of living rose 3%.
The index finds that gasoline prices have dropped, but energy, shelter, medical, furnishings, recreation and other costs all rose over the last year. Even though inflation is up slightly from April, it’s down compared to the past three years.
This is a sticking point for Trump, who vowed on the campaign trail to bring down inflation and other prices for Americans, and was propelled to the White House over economic concerns. The Trump administration is looking for ways it can shake up its messaging about affordability as voters share concerns about his campaign promises.
Americans have consistently shown they’re concerned about the economy, electing leaders in the 2025 election that focused on affordability. New surveys show that U.S. consumers were much less confident in the economy in November after the government shutdown.
So, who is to blame for the cheaper dinner but higher overall costs?
Over the last several years, there’s been a lot of partisan finger pointing about who is to blame for the state of the U.S. economy, the high prices Americans are faced with and who has the solution to fix it.
It’s an issue that is important to Trump, who campaigned on promises that he’d turn around the U.S. economy and bring down prices for Americans. He’s facing increased pressure from the public, especially since voters in the 2025 election said they were focused on affordability.
Trump is reportedly changing up the way he’s speaking about the economy and affordability as the holiday season approaches.
This Thanksgiving, Trump has consistently pointed out that Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket is 25% lower than it was last year, pointing to it as an indication that his economic agenda is working. On Tuesday, he said it was a “big deal” that the cost of Thanksgiving items was cheaper, but the AP noted that the meal basket is cheaper this year partially because Walmart chose to include different items and fewer products overall compared to previous years.
The Democratic National Committee, along with the Joint Economic Committee Minority compiled the most recent labor statistics to estimate how much American households are spending to afford the same items each month. They note that it’s the same method of examining costs that Republicans used under the Biden administration.
They found that from February to September 2025, the average American family has paid more than $700 in higher costs due to Trump-era inflation. The analysis finds that Utahns are paying more than other states, too. The report stated that Utah families are paying $1,030 more than they previously did for the same goods.
DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement to the Deseret News that Utahns are paying more because of Trump’s “disastrous economic agenda” and argued it was built on “broken promises.”
“This Thanksgiving, monthly costs are rising, and families in Utah are paying more because Trump and his Republican lackeys don’t have any plan to make life more affordable for working people in this country,” Martin said.
The Republican National Committee, however, is pointing to Thanksgiving prices as an indicator of their party’s successful leadership and economic agenda. The RNC argues Republicans have been working to “fix Bidenflation” and lower prices for food and gas.
The RNC pointed to Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal deal, citing the same statistic as Trump that it went down 25%. They also point to other retailers, including Lidl, Aldi and Target, that have seen prices for traditional Thanksgiving meals lower than they have been in years.
“American families are starting to see costs go down, thanks to President Trump fighting Bidenflation,” RNC spokesperson Delanie Bomar said in a statement. “Democrats spent four years driving costs through the roof with reckless spending, but President Trump is fighting for working families this holiday season.”
The Republican Party is highlighting statistics that show Thanksgiving will be cheaper for Americans than previous years, but the public may not be buying it. A new CBS News/YouGov survey finds consumers point to the Trump White House as the reason grocery prices haven’t gone down.
While each side of the political spectrum is looking to shift blame for the high prices consumers will see on their grocery receipts, it won’t change the fact that heading into the holiday season, many Americans will feel the financial strain of the current economic moment.