WASHINGTON — Voters in Tennessee’s 7th District will elect a new House representative on Tuesday evening, and the race is shaping up to be much closer than initially expected — leaving Republicans in a scramble to keep a seat crucial to their slim majority.
The special election will fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Mark Green, who retired earlier this year. Green won the seat with nearly 60% of the vote, and President Donald Trump won by roughly 22 percentage points in the 2024 election.
But polling shows the Republican and Democratic candidates in a statistical tie, prompting GOP leaders to go into overdrive to save what should be considered a safe Republican seat.
“Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said on Tuesday. “And when you’re in a deep-red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative, will win. And you cannot assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everybody to go out there and make that happen.”
Johnson traveled to Tennessee’s 7th District on Monday to campaign alongside Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, appearing at 12 events within 10 hours, he said. Trump has also participated in virtual rallies for Van Epps, and he broke his silence for a rare social media post on X encouraging voter turnout.
“Polls open in all Counties no later than 9:00 A.M., but some open as early as 7:00 A.M,” he wrote. “Polls close at 7:00 P.M. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 7 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! Election Day is TOMORROW, December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE, VOTE, VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
The race will serve as a test for Republicans’ trifecta in Washington, and a loss would be catastrophic for their slim majority in the House. With current margins, Johnson can only afford to lose two votes on any given vote, which would temporarily increase to three if Van Epps wins on Tuesday.
Democrats are closely watching the race, especially as national Republican groups outspend their opponents to ensure a victory. As of Tuesday, top political action committees led by Republicans have outspent their Democratic counterparts $3.1 million to $2.3 million, according to AdImpact.
And with a new Emerson College/The Hill poll showing Van Epps just 2 percentage points above Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn, Democrats are taking the opportunity to hammer their GOP colleagues.
“That’s shocking,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., told reporters on Monday. “This is not a district that anyone believes should be competitive. No rational person believes this district should be competitive. And yet it’s apparently very competitive. It’s going to be a much-closer-than-expected race.”
To be sure, Democratic leaders are not openly projecting confidence they’ll win the race. But the fact that Republicans are pouring so much money into what should be a safe seat during an off-year special election is considered a good sign for the minority party heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
“Republicans have already lost,” Jeffries said. “The fact that they are spending millions of dollars to hold the seat that Donald Trump just won by 22 points is extraordinary, and more evidence that Republican extremists are completely and totally on the run because they have failed the American people.”
A close race in deep-red Tennessee could be a bellwether of how Democrats will fare in next year’s midterm elections when the party hopes to flip the House out of GOP control. After a string of victories in other off-year elections last month, Democrats are hoping they can ride the semi-blue wave into next November.