WASHINGTON — Republicans shouldn’t read too much into Tuesday’s special election results in Tennessee, where the Republican candidate notched a closer-than-expected victory over the Democratic challenger, top party leaders say. But they should heed the lessons.
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 percentage points on Tuesday night, a single-digit margin of victory in a district that President Donald Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024. While Democrats were quick to characterize the results as a five-alarm fire, GOP leaders are warning not to take too much stock in an off-year special election — at least not yet.
“It’s not uncommon, as you all know, in midterm elections for the party out of power to have headwinds, and I think the opposition party tends to be more motivated,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told reporters on Wednesday. “So in a special election, or off-year elections, the turnout models are significantly different than they would be in an even-numbered year.”
Top House Republicans sought to temper expectations in the days leading up to the election that voter turnout is often lopsided in favor of the minority party, as they are more inclined to vote against the party in control. But the closer-than-expected results do offer a warning sign that Republicans need to craft a unified message if they want to avoid a similar fate in the midterm elections, they say.
“Obviously we need to take to heart the fact that we have to sharpen our message and make sure that we’re giving people a reason to vote for us in the midterms next year,” Thune said.
But some prominent GOP strategists offered a more urgent message — pushing Republicans to take Tuesday’s results as a bellwether of what’s to come.
“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” Matt Whitlock, a veteran political strategist, said in a post on X. “If every House district in the country shifted left by this same amount — about 15 points — we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018 — estimated 43 seats flipping.”
“That’s based on a lot of assumptions, and districts around the country don’t have uniform shifts,” he added, “but it’s a huge wake-up call for Republicans to get serious.”
Other Republicans said their fate could even get worse if they don’t act fast, noting midterm turnout will be higher than the special election numbers.
“In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said in an interview with Fox on Tuesday night. “Hate is a powerful motivator. They hate President Trump.”
Still, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed confidence the results were in line with what party leaders predicted.
“The president won it by 22 points, but it’s actually rated to be a slightly Republican district. So winning it by 9 points is almost exactly on the nose of what we might expect,” Johnson said. “Matt Van Epps is an extraordinary individual. Well-accomplished in his life. A combat veteran. A patriot. And he’s going to be a great member of this team.”
Johnson said he hopes to swear Epps in as soon as this week, which would bring the House margins up to 220-213 and give Republicans a three-seat majority.