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“We’re totally in control of the House.” Maybe not the vote of confidence you want from the leader of your party, but that’s what House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told a group of us on Tuesday after pulling bills off the floor due to Republican opposition.
Let me break that down for you so you don’t miss this dynamic.
On Tuesday, the House was set to vote on three labor-related bills dealing with a range of issues. To be clear, labor bills like these would be hard to pass in any normal Congress where Republicans have a wider majority to work with. That’s because Republicans have such vast opinions on these types of proposals.
But now we are in a situation where Republicans have a historically small margin and some pretty headstrong members. And we saw that come to fruition on Tuesday evening when Republican leaders kept a vote open for an hour — just to have the bill fail anyway.
Moments after that, they pulled two other bills from consideration to avoid a similar fate.
“This is life with a small margin,” Johnson said after the vote. “We’re not deterred in any way.”
But even though Johnson has some confidence things will turn around, the math is not exactly on his side. On their best days (meaning all members are present, which is a hard ask during an election year), Johnson can only afford to lose two Republicans on any given vote.
That is easier said than done, especially as we’ve seen members miss votes due to illness, accidents, missed flights, etc. Which means there’s a real risk of Republicans not having their majority on some days if a handful of them are missing and all Democrats are present.
So that shaky dynamic gives any one or two lawmakers immense power on any given vote, which is what we saw on Tuesday when a band of lawmakers decided to block legislation introduced by their own party they disagreed with.
The bill that failed was a proposal to exclude voluntary training sessions from being eligible for overtime pay, which was introduced by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa. Six Republicans joined all Democrats to vote against it, which was more than enough to sink it on the floor.
“I don’t like the idea of people potentially getting taken advantage of doing free training, and they’re off time, not making an hourly rate,” Rep. Riley Moore, R-W.Va., one of the six defectors, said. “It’s optional, but there could be undue pressure that’s put into place for some of these folks, which I don’t particularly like.”
It introduces a new harsh reality for Republican leaders: You really need to know who is in town and if everyone is on board with a piece of legislation before you bring it up for a vote.
That calculation will be more difficult in the coming weeks with lawmakers such as Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., at home recovering from surgery and Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wisc., saying he’ll be absent to stay home with his wife who is dealing with a “serious medical issue.”
Then you have members like Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, who has been absent for 28 of the 31 House votes so far this year as he runs for Senate.
With such a small margin, Republicans have no room for error.
Stories driving the week
- Paging the Clintons: Bill and Hillary Clinton refused to testify in House Republicans’ investigation into deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, setting the stage for what could be a drawn-out legal battle that the prominent Democrats are calling politically motivated.
- Reconciliation 2.0: House Republicans are laying the groundwork to fast-track a number of agenda items before the midterm elections, including a number of policies that didn’t make it in President Donald Trump’s signature tax package last summer.
- Greenland isn’t happy: A top Danish official said there was a “fundamental disagreement” over the ownership of Greenland as President Donald Trump insists the U.S. needs to acquire the land to better compete with adversaries in the region like China and Russia.
Will Congress finish their budget?
Congress is making steady progress toward funding different areas of the federal government, but it’s still an open question whether lawmakers will finish its budget before the end of this month.
Scheduling note: Current spending levels are set to lapse at midnight on Jan. 30.
The House passed another two-bill spending package this week, and the Senate passed the three-bill minibus that cleared the House last week. The Senate will be out on recess next week, but negotiators are hoping to release the final spending package over the weekend.
So, it’s progress. But there are still some hiccups that could delay the final package — which must include the most difficult spending bills.
The biggest question right now is what will happen with the Department of Homeland Security bill. Lawmakers were supposed to release that text last weekend, but it’s been stalled after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and killed a woman in Minneapolis last week.
Republicans and Democrats disagree over what happened leading up to the death of Renee Nicole Good in Minnesota, who the DHS says was shot as she attempted to run over a law enforcement officer, while Democrats say she was trying to get away.
Now, Democrats say they won’t back a budget unless it cuts funding to ICE — a request that Republicans won’t budge on.
They could end up just passing another continuing resolution to extend current spending levels until the end of the fiscal year, but even that’s a hard ask for Democrats. Especially those who want to use their leverage to secure some concessions.
“A CR doesn’t fix any of the problems either,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who sits on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said on Thursday. “A CR isn’t great. A budget without any constraints on DHS isn’t likely to get a lot of Democratic votes either.”
So what will the play call be? Keep an eye on whether they release more spending bills this weekend — that will be a big hint.
Quick Hits
From the Hill: Republican leaders successfully kill effort to limit Trump’s war powers in Venezuela. … Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly sues the Pentagon over attempt to demote him.
From the White House: Here’s why the Trump administration wants Greenland. … U.S. signals it could be preparing for Iran strike. … How the Fed chair pushed back against the Trump administration’s investigation.
From the courts: Supreme Court might uphold bans on transgender athletes in girls sports. … Arizona abortion restrictions challenged in court. … Supreme Court rejects case about Boy Scouts sex abuse.
What’s next
The House is back on Tuesday after the MLK holiday. The Senate is out all week on recess and won’t return until Jan. 26.
As always, feel free to reach out to me by email with story ideas or questions you have for lawmakers. And follow me on X for breaking news and timely developments from the Hill.