The GOP primary contest for Arizona governor has boiled down to two candidates: congressmen Andy Biggs and David Schweikert.
The field narrowed after Karrin Taylor Robson, who, along with Biggs, had President Donald Trump’s endorsement, dropped out earlier this year.
The latest survey from Noble Predictive Insights found that Biggs has 40% support among registered Republicans, while Schweikert is at 19%, with 41% still undecided.
Biggs’ gained a 16-percentage-point lead between December 2025, when he enjoyed 24% support, and February 2026, when it rose to 40%. Schweikert, in comparison, only saw a 5-point jump.
The latest survey, conducted from Feb. 23-26, 2026, surveyed 1,023 registered Arizona voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.06%.
The results suggest that Biggs, with Trump’s endorsement, has an edge over Schweikert.
How do Biggs and Schweikert match up to Trump?
Biggs entered this race in January 2025. At the time, Turning Point USA didn’t leave a single stone unturned for Biggs’ first rally in his bid for governor. Schweikert, the “budget hawk,” followed suit in October 2025. In many ways, Schweikert is the policy-focused alternative by comparison to his MAGA-aligned colleague and challenger. Whose message is resonating with Arizona GOP voters?
“Biggs is ahead in every demographic category in the Republican primary,” according to NPI’s press release.
Biggs, a Brigham Young University graduate and a Latter-day Saint, is especially popular among seniors. Among Republican voters, he holds a 24-point lead and a 21-point advantage with voters loyal to Trump.
“Schweikert’s biggest advantage right now is that there is a sizable amount of undecided voters available (approximately 40%) across key voter blocs, and the election is not for another five months,” said Mike Noble, the founder and CEO of NPI, as per the press release.
“The numbers indicate Biggs benefited the most from Robson’s exit from the race, and he’s not very far from the coveted 50% threshold,” Noble added.
To get a sense of the larger playing field, NPI matched incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs with the two GOP candidates.
Hobbs maintains a 5-point lead against Biggs and a 9-point lead against Schweikert. As Noble said, the incumbent governor “is running away with this contest, although with no competitive opponent to speak of — she has to feel good about the position she is currently in.”
It’s worth noting that Hobbs enjoys a more favorable rating among women and has a 15-point lead among Democratic women. The opposite is true for Biggs, who enjoys support from men and has a 5-point lead among Republican men. And while Biggs performs better among older voters, Hobbs is popular among younger voters.
“With double-digit undecideds among registered voters, this race is far from locked in,” Noble said. “The candidate who can consolidate their base while making inroads with persuadable women and middle-aged voters will have the edge.”
Other competitive contests in Arizona
While this survey from NPI helps crystallize the top contenders for the highest office in Arizona, its polling shows several races down the ballot are largely unsettled.
NPI examined contests for secretary of state, attorney general, and superintendent of public instruction and found that the races may be undetermined, but they are also highly competitive.
“This is a classic low-information primary,” said Noble. “With 67% undecided, this race hasn’t even begun to fully form. The candidate who can build early name ID and consolidate a coalition of older primary voters will have a major advantage.”
One of the more notable races is the one for Arizona secretary of state. It has attracted state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, with 17% support, and former Republican Party chairwoman Gina Swoboda, with 16% support. Meanwhile, 67% are unsure.
The office is currently held by Adrian Fontes.
Swoboda initially launched her bid for Arizona’s 1st District, set to be vacant after Schweikert’s retirement from this office. Currently labeled a “toss-up,” this race is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive races in the country.