- Republican affiliation among Latter-day Saints has fallen 10 percentage points since 2007.
- GOP affiliation increased among nearly every other religious group over the past two decades.
- Those living in "LDS Enclaves" were by far the most likely to rank polarization as a top issue.
American members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints stood out over the past 20 years as the only religious group besides atheists that shifted toward greater Democratic Party self-identification.
Latter-day Saints remain the second most Republican-leaning religious group in the United States but a new Cooperative Election Study analysis found this GOP advantage has shrunk by around 10 percentage points.
Latter-day Saint partisan composition has changed from 68.5% GOP affiliation from 2007-2010, to 57.5% from 2022-2025, with the loss evenly split between increases in Democratic affiliation and no affiliation.
Meanwhile, the opposite trend has taken place among every other faith demographic, with Democrats almost losing their 10-point margin nationwide as the share of politically unaffiliated doubled from 10-20%
Interpretations of Latter-day Saints’ outlier trajectory range from what could be a generational turn spurred by President Donald Trump, to predictions of a temporary swing followed by a return to the status quo.
National drop in Democratic ID
The Cooperative Election Study, or CES, is considered the largest academic survey of American elections. It is conducted by YouGov, which published an analysis of two decades of CES partisanship data on March 24.
Most polls don’t have big enough sample sizes to draw conclusions about Latter-day Saints, who make up less than 2% of the electorate. But in even years, CES interviews more than 50,000 Americans, including 600-900 Latter-day Saints.
Overall, the YouGov analysis found Democratic affiliation fell from 50% to 40% nationwide since 2007. It is now roughly equal with the 37% of Americans who lean Republican. Another 23% lean toward neither party.
Every major demographic group, with the exception of white men with college degrees, moved away from Democratic affiliation during this period, particularly black men with no degree and Hispanic women with a degree.
But this has not translated into Republican Party gains.
The share of the public that leans Republican has stayed relatively constant, hovering just below four-in-ten Americans. Democratic losses have led to a higher percentage of people with no party affinity.
A swing in the opposite direction
The story 20 years of data tells for the rest of the country is not true for its 7 million Latter-day Saints.
Those who identify as members of the church started the survey period as the most GOP-leaning religious group in America. In 2008, 69% of Latter-day Saints identified as Republicans, 18% as Democrats and 13% as neither.
GOP affiliation peaked at 74% in 2012 with Latter-day Saint Mitt Romney as the Republican Party nominee for president. Once Trump entered office, GOP affiliation dipped to an average of 59% during his first term.
During Joe Biden’s presidency, Latter-day Saint GOP affiliation remained around 55%, as Democratic affiliation rose to 24% and no affiliation moved to 20% among Latter-day Saints. But 2025 may have been a turning point.
The most recent CES results show a five-point shift from Democratic affiliation to Republican affiliation last year.
While it has been eclipsed by white evangelicals, the share of GOP-leaning Latter-day Saints still outnumbers Democrats by a 40-point margin, said Brad Jones, author of the report and a Brigham Young University graduate.
“It’s not to say that Mormons are suddenly overall Democratic,” Jones told the Deseret News. “This hasn’t been a dramatic reshaping of the landscape, but it was surprising to see them bucking that national trend.”
What’s behind the shift?
One factor shared by the counterexamples to the trend — Latter-day Saints and atheists — is a greater likelihood of having a college education, Jones said, which has become one of the key dividing lines of politics in the Trump era.
Another possible explanation for dissatisfaction with the GOP among some Latter-day Saints is a perceived conflict with teachings about civility, compromise and the U.S. Constitution, according to BYU professor Quin Monson.
Peacemaking has joined political priorities like restricting abortion and preserving the traditional family, Monson said. But GOP alienation won’t impact electoral outcomes if Democrats don’t offer an adequate alternative.
“It’s way too soon to conclude that there’s some massive realignment,” Monson told the Deseret News. “But it certainly could be interpreted as the beginning of something important. Partisanship changes slowly.”
Decades of data demonstrate people rarely change their mind about partisan loyalties, said Monson, who wrote the book on Latter-day Saint politics. The more likely agent of change is what Monson called “generational replacement.”
CES polls have found that young Latter-day Saint voters were almost evenly divided in terms of party affiliation in 2024. But even as they fled the GOP label, a majority still voted for Trump and held conservative policy positions.
The role of polarization
Turning Point Action COO Tyler Bowyer, a Latter-day Saint who runs Charlie Kirk’s campaign operation, told the Deseret News he blames criticisms from prominent Latter-day Saint politicians for the temporary aversion to the GOP.
“I think many Republicans have actually come home to Trump and will continue to,” Bowyer said. “The attacks from LDS officeholders like Mitt and (former Sen. Jeff Flake) did serious damage early but has leveled out.”
But political division appears to be an increasing concern for Latter-day Saints and their neighbors.
An American Communities Project survey, released the same day as the YouGov analysis, identified those living in “LDS Enclaves” as the most likely to rate polarization and extremism as a top-three problem for the nation.
Nearly 40% of the 365 respondents in Southeastern Idaho and Utah ranked this as a most important issue, compared to 27% nationwide. They were also the most likely to share this concern about their own community.
Alex Bass, who authored the American Communities Project report, and who is also a BYU grad, said these results suggest Latter-day Saints are still grappling with political shifts that have left them feeling out of place.
“The Republican Party has definitely changed,” Bass told the Deseret News. “And I think that they are just moving away from the new Republican Party.”