- California’s top-two primary system means the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party, creating a real possibility that two Republicans could make the November ballot.
- Democrats such as Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer remain closely grouped behind them despite Democrats’ much larger spending totals.
- Controversies have dotted the gubernatorial races from a UCLA debate to allegations of sexual assault and more.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s impending absence from state politics has created a surprising 2026 gubernatorial race, which could end with a Republican leading the state for the first time in 16 years.
The Golden State has a top-two election system. Every candidate — Republican, Democrat, Green, etc. — will appear on every primary ballot on June 2. The two candidates who pull in the most votes will face off in the general election in November.
As of the end of March, Democratic candidates had spent a combined $132 million on their campaigns, but regardless, they’ve largely struggled to break away from the pack. Meanwhile, in the last credible poll from March 2026, two Republicans — Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco — polled the highest, with 17% and 16%, respectively.
The Democrats followed behind. California Rep. Eric Swalwell pulled in 13%, state Rep. Katie Porter was at 13%, then came businessman Tom Steyer with 10%, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra with 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa with 4%, and current San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan with 4%.
But even outside the possibility that two Republicans could end up on the ballot for governor in November, California’s gubernatorial race has been one to watch.
Will Trump’s endorsement shake support for Bianco?
On Sunday, President Donald Trump posted his endorsement of Republican candidate Steve Hilton to Truth Social. Political analysts on both sides of the aisle have said the endorsement will damage the likelihood of a two-Republican ticket.
“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years. He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell,“ Trump wrote.
He continued, “Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late.”
Corrin Rankin, the chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told the Deseret News that Californians are “taking notice” of Trump’s endorsement. However, she said she still believes there’s a chance both candidates will be ranked top two by June.
“There’s just a trend in California that people are looking for something different,” she said. “Republicans are talking about affordability; lowering prices for working families, whether it be gas, groceries; the soaring cost of insurance; public safety; kids education in schools — just simple solutions that make it easier for people to make businesses thrive.”
Californians are getting tired of the Democratic approach, “and they’re ready to try something different,” she said. “They want to see crime go down. They want to see prices go down and they’re looking towards Republicans to make that happen.”
Meanwhile, the state’s Democratic Party chair, Rusty Hicks, has pled with lower-polling Democrats to drop out of the race. His request has been met with accusations of racism.
Accusations of racism have been a thorn in the race
The University of Southern California agreed to host a debate between the five highest polling gubernatorial candidates, plus candidate Matt Mahan, then canceled it over complaints that the lineup excluded candidates of color.
One Democratic candidate, Becerra, the former California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, sent a letter to USC’s president, saying the university had “disqualified all of the candidates of color from participating” and was “rigging” the election.
After USC explained how the candidates were selected based solely off of poll results, Becerra responded, “USC goes to great lengths to justify its exclusionary candidate formula. But you can’t escape the detestable outcome: you disqualified all of the candidates of color from participating while you invited a white candidate who has NEVER polled higher than some of the candidates of color, including me.”
Betty Yee, another Democratic candidate, added, “We are a minority-majority state, and the idea that the four candidates of color are not going to be on the stage to bring those perspectives, to really speak to those communities, is really not doing right by the voters.”
However, the USC political science professor who created the formula, which determined the participants, told The New York Times that he’d made it “without knowing who would benefit and who would not.”
One candidate faces accusations of sexual assault
On Tuesday, Swalwell’s campaign responded to accusations that the current U.S. representative behaved inappropriately with female staffers.
“This false, outrageous rumor is being spread 27 days before an election begins by flailing opponents who have sadly teamed up with MAGA conspiracy theorists because they know Eric Swalwell is the front-runner in this race,” spokesperson Micah Beasley told Politico.
The statement comes as accusations against Swalwell have escalated on social media. On Sunday, a progressive Gen Z influencer said alleged victims had “stayed quiet due to a belief that non-disclosure agreements required them to keep this secret.”
Beasley’s statement addressed this: “In 13 years, no one in Eric Swalwell’s congressional office has ever been asked to sign an NDA. Ever. In 13 years, not a single ethics complaint by any staff in his office or any other office has ever been lodged. Ever.”
Another candidate is struggling to make up lost ground after viral interview
As of March, state Rep. Katie Porter had more individual donors than any other candidate and ranked fourth in the polls, with 13% of those surveyed.
However, her poll numbers have slipped since last August, when she polled highest in the race at about 18%, followed by Hilton at 12%.
Porter’s poll rankings slipped in October, after CBS released an interview in which she tried to leave part-way through.
When asked if Porter thought she needed to win over voters who had voted for Trump in 2024, she said, “I don’t want to keep doing this. I’m going to call it.”
“I want to have a pleasant, positive conversation in which you ask me about every question on this list. And if every question you’re going to make up a follow-up question, we’re never going to get there. I have never had to do this before,” she said.
When the interviewer proceeded to ask a different question, Porter interrupted and said, “I don’t want to have an unhappy experience with you. And I don’t want to have this all on camera.”
A week after the video was posted, Porter told CBS in a statement, “I absolutely understand that I could have been better in those moments. I’m going to hold myself to that standard.”
Many Californians just want a safer, cheaper place to live
Rankin told the Deseret News that Californians are growing tired of increased taxes and decreased policing.
“They want to hear that when they leave their cars parked outside, they’re not going to be broken into. They want to feel safe in their neighborhoods and feel that their children can ride their bike outside and play,” she said.
She continued, “They want to go to Rite Aid or CVS and be able to buy shampoo without having to call the cashier to unlock the shampoo.”
A statewide survey, published mid-March, reinforces these ideas.
For the last year, more Californians have said they think the state is headed in the wrong direction than the right one, and the most important issue for all voters was the price of groceries, gas and utilities.
More than three-quarters of respondents added that corruption in the government would motivate them to vote in the next election.
Rankin referenced this widespread concern about fraud. “It doesn’t make any difference if you’re taxing the middle class and billionaires if you’re going to just keep giving it to nonprofits that are wasting the money,” she said. “And people are seeing it.”