The Republican race for Utah governor has already begun to take shape a full two years before the primary election, and at least a year before candidates would normally begin to consider making their announcements.
A behind-the-scenes bid by former Rep. Jason Chaffetz to frame himself as the presumptive nominee has sparked a premature “shadow primary,” four of the state’s top GOP consultants and donors told the Deseret News.
They all asked to remain anonymous so they could speak about the race freely.
Chaffetz confirmed he is considering a run for governor in an interview with the Deseret News, but dismissed the claim he is actively seeking donors this early. There is still “an eternity” for election decisions to be made, he said.
The reason he has been traveling up and down the state, headlining Lincoln Day fundraising dinners and working the crowds at GOP nominating conventions, is to “garner support for conservatives,” the Fox News contributor said.
This is also why last year he transferred money from a federal political action committee to a state PAC, Chaffetz said, to support individuals like Salt Lake County sheriff candidate Shane Manwaring and local Republican parties.
“I’m actively doing those things,” Chaffetz said. “It takes money and resources. I’ve raised the money, but I’ve been handing it back out.”
As of mid-April, Chaffetz’s Utah Victory PAC had received nearly $60,000 in 2026 for a total of $427,000, after giving less than $9,000 to the GOP in Utah, San Juan, Sevier, Summit, Utah, Washington and Weber counties.
On Tuesday, Chaffetz said it is a “distinct possibility” he will run to replace Gov. Spencer Cox. He has teased his ambitions before: In 2016, he said he would “take a serious, serious look at running for governor” in 2020.
Who else is considering a bid?
The state’s most plugged-in politicos from across the conservative spectrum say Chaffetz is doing more than simply currying favor with the grassroots; he is going all in to make the 2028 race his to lose before it even begins.
“Jason’s running for governor. He’s basically told everyone he’s running for governor,” a top GOP donor, who has spoken directly with Chaffetz, told the Deseret News.
Other candidates considering the seat include House Speaker Mike Schultz, Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, Traeger Grills CEO Jeremy Andrus, serial entrepreneur Brad Bonham and Rep. Blake Moore, according to multiple sources.
Meanwhile, a group of longtime allies are trying to recruit Sen. John Curtis to leave his recently won position in the Senate because they feel he is the only viable candidate who can continue Cox’s brand of civility and compromise.
Underlying all these conversations is Chaffetz’s push to clear the way to the state Capitol by securing commitments from donors before most candidates have even started thinking about the gubernatorial election.
“Jason wants to make it a juggernaut, no question. And Jason works hard,” a veteran GOP consultant told the Deseret News.
The consultant believes Chaffetz’s easy-mannered tone coupled with his deeply conservative views could make him uniquely capable to bridge the widening gap between the right wing and the center right in Utah GOP politics.
The Fox News contributor’s momentum has spurred the state’s set of “Disagree Better”-style Republicans into action, with well-known influencers launching a campaign to pull another juggernaut into the 2028 shadow primary.
Will John Curtis enter the race?
Hoping to stem the tide of money tied up in promises to Chaffetz, a group of Cox and Curtis backers spoke to Politico’s Samuel Benson, suggesting Curtis might want to swap his Senate seat to become the state’s chief executive.
Following the article’s release, Curtis told the Deseret News on Tuesday he is not thinking about Utah’s gubernatorial race and disputed claims made in the piece, particularly that he is unsatisfied with his work in Washington, D.C.
The article may still have had its intended effect. At least one top donor has canceled a meet-and-greet scheduled with Chaffetz since learning Curtis might run for governor, according to two sources familiar with the decision.
For months, Chaffetz has worked to craft a narrative that despite the extended timeline, the 2028 race is coming into focus with him as the front runner, said one Utah donor, who cannot remember another race rolling out this early.
“Chaffetz is running the most aggressive shadow primary campaign of anybody that I’ve seen in recent history in Utah,” the source said. “That is the motion in the political market that is creating everything else that’s happening.”
Chaffetz’s pitch, according to the source is, “Hey, it’s inevitable that I’m going to be the next governor. When I’m focused, I don’t lose. I’m going to lock up the support. I’m going to be the next governor, so you better get on board.”
It may be smart politics to try to scare away potential contenders, but the source said Chaffetz’s victory is far from inevitable as Curtis’ name has already convinced dozens of donors to remain neutral until the primary draws closer.
Donors are frustrated the “shadow primary stage” started so early, according to another top GOP operative. And there is skepticism that Chaffetz, who has been out of office for eight years since resigning, is the best to govern the state.
Will Speaker Schultz or Lt. Gov. Henderson run?
Even with two years to go, it seems likely the 2028 race could become a two-way contest between Chaffetz and Curtis because they have the most important ingredient — name ID — which is hard to earn or buy, the operative said.
In an interview with the Deseret News, Schultz, R-Hooper, who has the wealth to potentially self-fund a campaign, said he is entirely focused on serving Utah in his current position, and will wait to make a decision about 2028.
“I have not even came close to making a decision,” Schultz said. “Honestly, it will depend on what the field looks like before I make that decision.”
Henderson, who ran against Curtis in the 2017 special election to replace Chaffetz, said she will “think about 2028 when it’s time to think about 2028″ and that she did not accept the role as Cox’s lieutenant “to get a different one.”
While he rejected aspects of the Politico story that claimed he has prayerfully sought guidance about a gubernatorial bid, Curtis has become more open to it as people have reached out, sources close to the senator told the Deseret News.
This echoes the process that led Curtis to reverse his decision not to run for Senate in 2023, when his refusal was met with a fundraising campaign by some supporters of outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney to get Curtis to change his mind.
Curtis finally entered the race in January 2024, long after former state Speaker Brad Wilson shored up support among donors, who eventually split between the candidates. That could happen again, the veteran consultant said.
“There may be some flip-flop fatigue on that,” the source said. “Politicians are very susceptible to having two people tell them ‘you should run,’ and feeling like it’s the Tabernacle Choir.”