In California, voters received early ballots in the mail more than a week and a half ago and are now making choices in key 2026 elections, including in the race for governor of the Golden State and mayor of Los Angeles.
Even though the primary election is roughly two weeks away, a new poll shows there isn’t a clear frontrunner in these races.
In the governor’s race, more than 60 candidates are on the ballot, creating a very fluid situation. The mayoral race isn’t much better.
Gov. Gavin Newsom hasn’t yet endorsed a candidate to replace him or lead the state’s most populous city.
As Jeff Burton, a lobbyist and longtime strategist for Republican leaders, told the Deseret News, Newsom’s “top priority hasn’t been California for about a year and a half.”
“It’s been obvious that he’s running for president, and you can’t even say it’s the worst-kept secret, because just everybody knows it,” he said.
Burton added, “He hasn’t been interested in who his predecessor is, or protecting that legacy — and that’s been clear.”
The latest polling, published on Wednesday, shows former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the large field with 19% in the race for California governor.
Former Fox News host and Republican Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer were tied at 17%.
Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan earned 10% and 8% support, respectively, while 12% of voters still remain undecided.
California gubernatorial race is still largely undecided
The news of Becerra’s small lead comes after his recent interview with a Los Angeles paper that garnered negative attention.
“By the way, this is a profile piece, this is not a gotcha piece, right?” Becerra asked KTLA’s Annie Rose Ramos as the cameras rolled.
When the reporter responded that “the questions are fair” and necessary to learn more about him as a candidate, Becerra responded, “So long as it’s about the profile.”
He further explained to the reporter, “The way I describe profile is you talk about all the things that I’ve done, things I want to do, and along with some tough questions, but not only tough questions.”
Jeff Le, a political consultant who also served as a deputy cabinet secretary for California Gov. Jerry Brown, noted that Hilton and Becerra have a district advantage while all candidates are running against the clock in hopes of changing voters’ minds.
Hilton and Becerra have successfully locked in their bases against their closest internal party rivals, namely Chad Bianco and Tom Steyer.
“Even though Becerra recently gave a poorly received interview, the number of undecided voters has shrunk. This means most people have already made up their minds, protecting Becerra’s lead,” noted Le.
Steyer is losing ground to Becerra. His only remaining option to win is to destroy Becerra’s reputation using heavy negative advertising, Le noted.
“(San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan), a late entrant in the race, has made gains from perceived strong debates but he is likely too late to consolidate the anti-Steyer and anti-Becerra coalition at this juncture.”
But, as Burton told the Deseret News, “polling is junk science.”
“Opinions change second by second,” he said. “There’s still a lot of voters who are holding their ballots back, waiting and seeing.”
Burton speculated that with “a wide-open field,” it’s possible the Democrat who receives 15% of the vote could become the next governor of California, where a candidate needs to advance to and win the general election.
Who is leading in the Los Angeles mayoral race?
Even though incumbent Mayor Karen Bass faces “heavy criticism of her handling of last year’s fires and its recovery,” she is the favorite in the race, garnering backing from the Democratic establishment, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as influential unions, according to Le.
As per the latest Emerson College poll, Bass leads with 30% support, up by 10 points compared to last month.
Not too far behind is reality TV star Spencer Pratt, who is running as an independent, with 22%.
“Pratt, armed with strong ads and a penchant for flair, has made leaps and is currently outpacing Democratic Socialist Councilmember Raman by a slim few points,” Le noted. Nithya Raman polled at 15%.
“As of now, Pratt could be the challenger to Bass in the November general election,” he speculated. “One thing to watch will be the number of undecideds who could break late for Pratt.”
Compared to last month, when 50% of the candidates were undecided, only 16% of Los Angeles voters now say they are undecided on who they will vote for in the mayoral race.
Pratt may have been the villain in the storylines for “The Hills” reality show but recent AI-generated ads feature Pratt as Los Angeles’ hero, saving the city. In one video, he is battling Bass in a light-saber duel, as NBC News reported.
These videos, created by Charlie Curran, a filmmaker, have generated millions of views on social media. Pratt himself has shared campaign videos that feature his wife and “The Hills” cast member Heidi Montag Pratt and their son figuring out their life after the devastating Palisades Fire that burned down their home.
As voters navigate the primary, Burton offered two pieces of advice for voters who haven’t filled out their ballots.
First, research your preferred candidates’ qualifications.
Second, ask yourself whether the candidate of choice has the potential to improve the lives of everyday Californians.
“There’s a lot of bureaucracy in California, and you want somebody who can bust through that, which is hard to find,” he said.