Michigan’s Democratic primary contest on Tuesday may be one of the closest races ahead of the midterm elections later this year.
It’s a race that has dropped from three candidates to two, but has also caught viral attention online and scrutiny over the two remaining candidates’ positions.
Voters on Tuesday will head to the polls to cast a ballot for either Rep. Haley Stevens, a more moderate Democrat and current congresswoman, or Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former state public health official.
It’s a race that’s split Democratic voters and the results of Tuesday’s primary could be a major indicator of how voters across the country view the future of the Democratic Party.
Race will be Democratic bellwether
The outcome of the primary could have an impact on the nationwide battle for control of the Senate and the future of the Democratic Party, particularly as Democrats remain divided over the two candidates and trends in other states have swung toward the more progressive candidate in recent months.
It also could prove to be another important bellwether for how voters view the party in the first major contests since dealing with major losses in 2024.
Former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, has a fighting chance against whoever the Democratic nominee is, although he polls better against El-Sayed than Stevens. He narrowly lost in 2024 to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat, announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection, opening up a field for Democrats seeking to replace him and another go for Rogers to head to the upper chamber.
Earlier this year, the Democratic primary race was a competitive three-way split between Stevens, El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, but McMorrow announced in early July she was ending her campaign, noting that she wouldn’t endorse either of the remaining candidates.
Peters has endorsed Stevens, the four-term representative, in the race. She’s more closely aligned with the Democratic establishment than her competitor and Peters said he believes she’ll be ready to go on Day 1 in the Senate.
El-Sayed has the endorsement of several progressive lawmakers, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, in the primary matchup between El-Sayed and Stevens, El-Sayed is largely ahead.
But in the November general election against Rogers, Stevens fares better than El-Sayed.
It’s something that’s caught the attention of President Donald Trump, who said Monday that he hopes Rogers wins and neither the “socialist” or “communist” candidates competing in the Democratic primary secure the seat come November.
Those averages show that Michigan, one of the nation’s critical swing states, is going to be a prime example of how voters view the Democratic Party.
Stevens’ lead over Rogers is a point that establishment Democrats in the state hope to drive home since taking hold of the Senate could be in play for the party this year.
Both El-Sayed, Stevens face Israel-related backlash
El-Sayed, who was the furthest left-leaning candidate from the start in terms of his policy prescriptions, has undergone some scrutiny for his progressive stances and aligning himself with controversial figures on the left.
While his campaign saw some new energy, particularly among younger Democrats and progressives, he was criticized this year for touring college campuses with Hasan Piker, a controversial left-wing influencer. Piker has made striking statements about Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and Israel’s war in Gaza, and for saying that “America deserved 9/11″ in 2019.
El-Sayed was criticized by Democrats, including Stevens, for campaigning with Piker, but would not denounce the streamer’s statements.
It was a move that further divided the two candidates and voters over the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel but could be a defining issue for voters in the state, since Michigan has the country’s largest Arab American population.
El-Sayed also embraced “Medicare for All” and wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. It’s something he is looking to emphasize in an effort to stand out against Stevens, who is backed by statewide names like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
During a recent debate among the two Democrats, El-Sayed attempted to lean on Stevens’ record in the House, particularly over immigration and Stevens’ past votes to increase ICE funding.
Stevens has focused on issues of affordability and highlighted her work on the Auto Rescue Task Force that helped buoy up the state’s important auto industry.
Another issue El-Sayed tried to highlight was the multimillion-dollar advertisement campaign that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee put toward supporting Stevens.
AIPAC and its affiliated groups have spent about $30 million to back Stevens, who told The Associated Press that anyone supporting her is choosing to do so because of her dedication to the people of Michigan.
Election Day
Early in-person voting in Michigan ran from July 25 through Aug. 3, with hundreds of thousands of voters in the state already returning mailed-in ballots.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time in Michigan and will close at 8 p.m. for all but three counties that observe central time and will close at 9 p.m.