The midterm election is just a few days away. But after it ends, all eyes will be on top political figures eyeing a 2028 run.
Since President Donald Trump is term limited and the Democratic Party experienced a major shakeup two years ago, both camps are going to be going through a reckoning as they look for the next generation of party leaders.
According to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey, conducted by Morning Consult, most voters both in Utah and nationally aren’t too sure about who should be the two parties’ next nominees.
The surveys found that Trump’s “heirs apparent,” Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have split voters. Vance is seen as the heir to Trump’s MAGA movement, while Rubio is seen as a more traditional-style Republican.
The national survey finds 51% of respondents say Vance is the candidate they’d most like to see receive the Republican Party’s nomination, while 31% selected Rubio.
In Utah, it’s very similar. Just over half, 52%, of respondents said Vance is their preferred candidate to next lead the GOP while 30% picked Rubio.
The split points to uncertainty of what a post-Trump Republican Party should look like.
Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, said it’s interesting to see that Vance has a “head start” but overall the party hasn’t decided who will replace Trump at the helm.
“Republicans have not necessarily decided on what their party should look like after President Trump,” he said. “There’s some benefits for some of these potential candidates who are part of the administration that have a platform and have significant name ID, but that doesn’t automatically answer the question about who comes next.”
Who do Democrats want to see lead their ticket?
Despite seeing enthusiasm in the 2026 midterm races, Democratic voters aren’t entirely sure who they want to lead their party moving forward.
There are plenty of names in the mix, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and more.
The surveys found that Harris earned the most support among respondents, both nationally and in Utah. But her lead wasn’t resounding, with just 31% choosing her as one of the options nationally to be their preferred 2028 candidate. In Utah, her support was higher with 35% selecting the former vice president.
Support for other top Democrats wasn’t enthusiastic, either. Both Newsom and Buttigieg hovered in the 20-30% range in each survey. It paints the picture that Democrats aren’t sure where their party should go after former President Joe Biden’s departure from the 2024 race and Harris’ truncated campaign.
“Democrats don’t have a shortage of people who might run for president. What they don’t yet have is a clear agreement on who should lead them or what direction the party should take,” Perry said.
Potential presidential candidates criss-cross the country ahead of 2026 midterms
While rumors have circulated over the last two years about the top Democrats possibly positioning themselves to launch a campaign, many of them have ramped up speaking engagements across the country to boost the party’s chances in 2026 — and they might be trying to get good face time with voters, too.
For example, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has made campaign stops in Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Maine and more in support of Democratic candidates. Buttigieg has campaigned in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Mississippi and elsewhere. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has crisscrossed the country making stops in Kansas, Oklahoma, Ohio and other states.
Peter Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, said the midterm elections will be a “big night” for Democrats and how the party moves forward toward 2028.
Democrats are energized over the possibility they could flip Republican majority control in the House. Who will control the Senate is seen as much harder to determine. If Democrats are successful, it will put a damper on Trump’s power in his final two years in the White House and could lead to impeachments of the president and other Cabinet officials.
Loge predicts that if Democrats are very successful on Election Night, it will “take some of the wind out of the MAGA sails.” It could put Vance in a difficult position being one of the top choices to be Trump’s successor, meaning he might have to distance himself from the president and his agenda to be the GOP’s leading nominee.
If Democrats aren’t extremely successful and the contests next week are “really close,” meaning if the Republicans keep control of the Senate and it’s not a “complete repudiation of Trump,” Loge explained, Vance and the party might see a path toward a 2028 nomination.
“I think part of what happens to Republicans in two years depends on what happens to Republicans next week,” Loge said.
Perry agreed, saying that there’s “a lot” riding on the midterms for both political parties.
Additionally, both parties must navigate shifting internal dynamics as progressive candidates secure victories in races across the country and Republicans prepare for the post-MAGA era after Trump.
“This is really the question — are voters looking for someone who will continue the politics of the last several years, or are they looking for someone who will take their party in a different direction?” Perry said.
“I think both parties are trying to come to grips with what the direction for the future is and how to keep their family together,” he added.