PROVO — The man who invented “Bracketology” attended BYU’s 87-84 overtime setback at Saint Mary’s Thursday night.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi watched coach Mark Pope’s Cougars, playing without leading scorer Yoeli Childs, who suffered an open dislocation of the index finger on his shooting hand in practice last Tuesday, fall to the Gaels.
So what was he doing in the Bay Area Thursday in the first place? “Have you ever spent January in Philadelphia?” Lunardi said half-jokingly.
Earlier this week, Lunardi, who calls his popular NCAA tournament prognostications a combination of “art and science,” had both teams projected as No. 9 seeds in the 2020 NCAA Tournament. The Cougars haven’t gone to the NCAA tournament since 2015.
For years, college basketball fans have followed Lunardi and his projected brackets, which receive millions of hits online during any given season.
Late Thursday night, Lunardi walked away even more impressed with BYU after it nearly knocked off Saint Mary’s without Childs.
As important as the Cougars’ showdown against Saint Mary’s was, Lunardi knew before tipoff a loss wouldn’t hurt them in terms of their NCAA hopes.
“Nobody’s falling out of the field, particularly BYU,” Lunardi told the Deseret News before the game. “It’s more important for the home team to win. For BYU, it’s essentially a free shot.”
Both teams put on a show Thursday in an overtime thriller. TJ Haws poured in 29 points and Jake Toolson added 24 for the Cougars. Jordan Ford had 24 for the Gaels.
Lunardi was working on his new bracket during the game. It was unveiled Friday and BYU (12-5, 1-1) remained a No. 9 seed as did Saint Mary’s (15-3 2-1).
The Cougars host Portland Saturday (7:30 p.m. MST, BYUtv).
“Everybody knows Duke and Kentucky are going to the tournament and I think both of these teams (BYU and Saint Mary’s) will also,” Lunardi said. “But I’m trying to get around like the (NCAA tournament) committee does to see as many of these kinds of games as possible.”
Lunardi is bullish on the Cougars and the Gaels — and the West Coast Conference in general. Lunardi strongly believes the WCC is a three-bid league. He has the Gonzaga as a No. 1 seed.
“To me, this is an 8 vs. 9 game in the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams are good enough to be in the tournament and advance,” Lunardi said before Thursday’s BYU-Saint Mary’s game. “They’re older and they’ve been in big games. Had Childs been eligible at the beginning of the season, BYU would have been in those brackets. While they were certainly good, they were probably an NIT team without him, roughly. Clearly, they’ve won every game with him except the Utah loss. And he was out at the end of that game. And he’s out (against Saint Mary’s). It’s disappointing but in fairness, Saint Mary’s was probably due for a little bit of luck because they got completely messed up at the end the third overtime at Pacific. Both would be very difficult to play against in the tournament because they’re older, experienced and the 3 can be a great equalizer.”
When it comes to evaluating BYU for the NCAA tournament, Lunardi factors in the Sunday play rule. The Cougars don’t compete on Sundays due to school policy, which requires the NCAA to place them in a Thursday-Saturday bracket, which can impact their seeding.
“BYU is actually on the eight line. I had to move them to get them away from a Sunday (bracket). It was extra hard when they were twice in the Dayton First Four. It triggered a Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, so you had to have three things aligned,” Lunardi said. “Sometimes the bracket doesn’t allow that. The year they played Iona (in 2012) in the First Four, they fell to an 11 seed. That was because of that (Sunday) rule. I’m not disputing anybody’s religious beliefs. That’s reality. (The NCAA tournament committee isn’t) going to move them up to accommodate them. They’re saying, ‘It’s your rule, not ours.’”
How will the NCAA tournament committee view BYU this year, knowing that Childs, who is averaging 20.9 points and 10.1 rebounds, was sidelined for the first nine games due to an NCAA suspension and could be out for a while with this finger injury?
“The player availability charts have become a bigger and bigger element for the committee. And the way it works is, the conference is on the phone regularly during the season on scheduled calls with the committee rep and a secondary committee rep,” Lunardi said. “Of the 10 people, they’re each assigned three leagues as a primary and three leagues as a secondary. It’s their job to get on the phone with the league office and say, ‘What’s the latest?’ The next call might be about Childs. That goes on. They’ll look at BYU’s offensive and defensive efficiency with him and without him. If he comes back and plays as he has been, that would give them the benefit of the doubt if they were on the fence. I just think they’re too good to be on the fence. Both of these teams are genuinely very good.”