SALT LAKE CITY — The NBA draft is less than two weeks away, and as Nov. 18 draws near, I’d like to make a plea to all those who will analyze, speculate and write and talk about the 2020 draft class. Beware the cliches and myths that get tossed around when evaluating NBA prospects.
I’ve been just as guilty as the next person for falling into the trap of relying on draft tropes to explain away a player evaluation, but it’s never too late to improve. And, with that in mind, let’s get down to business.
Here are three things I hope we can all stay away from this draft season.
The ceiling myth
Imagine someone telling you that you would stop improving at anything in your life at 19 years old. If that were true the only things I’d be good at would be arguing with my parents and selling video games part time. Sure glad I was able to improve in other areas.
It seems crazy, but it happens all the time with NBA prospects. Sometimes after just one season of college ball under their belt, a player will be declared by analysts and reporters as having a talent ceiling that they will never be able to improve beyond.
“X player is athletic and has the right tools, but his ceiling is likely as the first man off the bench.”
“Y player is a traditional post player, but that’s his ceiling because he doesn’t have a perimeter game.”
Remember what people said about Luguentz Dort in 2019? Probably not. The Oklahoma City guard went undrafted because he was thought to have a very low ceiling due to his poor shooting numbers and mechanics. He was then thrown a bone by the Thunder to play in the G League.
Fast forward to the NBA playoffs in the bubble and Dort was starting as the Thunder’s most reliable and vicious wing defender, tasked with guarding James Harden.
More and more we are seeing players spend just one year playing college basketball before moving on to the greener pastures of the NBA. That means we have less time to evaluate them and they are barely even adults before joining the ranks of the best basketball players in the world.
It’s completely unfair to pretend that we really know what kind of ceiling these young prospects have or to act like their bodies, skill level or work ethic are going to be the same at age 26 as they are at age 18 or 19.
I’ll take this even further. Brook Lopez added the 3-point shot to his game when he was 30 and Aron Baynes did the same when he was 31. I promise you that there was never a point in which these two centers were scouted as being potential inside/outside threats. But, like most athletes, improvement doesn’t stop just because you reach a certain age.
That brings me to my next point:
Ageism in the draft
I guarantee that before this NBA draft has concluded you will hear someone talking about a four-year college player as if they’re 30 years old, near the end of their career. Then, in the very same breath they’ll talk about a one-and-done player as if he is an untapped fountain of youth with potential unknown to humans.
We’re talking about the difference between a 19-year-old and a 22-year-old. Spoiler alert, it’s not that big of difference.
Every year analysts act like players who stay in college for more than a single season are incapable of improvement. Then, as soon as the draft is over it’s like the whiteboard is erased. For the rest of that player’s career, improvement will be expected, he’ll be lauded for improving and every offseason there will be conversations about what that player is doing to change his body and learn new skills. But hadn’t we just decided that at 22 improvement stops?
Is that what Jazz fans expected of Donovan Mitchell when he turned 22, two years ago? No, because that’s crazy.
If there are any college basketball players reading this, I’d just like to reassure you that life does not end at 22 and your prime is still ahead of you.
Additionally, the 18- and 19-year-olds in the draft are going to almost always be described as having “untapped potential,” which is just draft speak for “who knows?”
There will be busts and sleepers and unexpected surprises in this draft just like there is in every other draft because it is impossible to predict what kind of player or person an 18-year-old will turn out to be.
Just because someone has untapped potential doesn’t mean they’ll tap into it.
Transitioning from college to pro
The Miami Heat play a lot of zone defense. Does that mean that a player who has played one or two years with the Heat is going to crumble and fail if they’re traded to a team that doesn’t play zone?
No. That is a ridiculous assertion.
But, you will no doubt read about college players who were in a zone system. And their ability to transition to a man-to-man defense will be doubted in the harshest of terms.
Take Matisse Thybulle for example. The Philadelphia 76ers rookie was incessantly asked about his ability to play man defense after playing zone at Washington. Turns out, he’s still really good at defense and was one of the best defensive rookies in the league this past season.
We have to start giving these players a little more credit. They’ve dedicated their lives to the game of basketball and they’re capable of learning new skills and adapting to all of the new things that the NBA brings.
These players are going to be surrounded by trainers, coaches and coordinators who are there to help them not only transition smoothly, but also improve along the way.