Going into the final day of the regular season, No. 18 Utah still has a chance, albeit slim, to earn a top-four seed in the upcoming women’s basketball Pac-12 tournament.
There are five teams within one game of each other heading into Saturday’s action, and two of those teams will not earn a first-round bye in the tournament, which comes with being a top-four seed.
Utah would be the No. 6 seed if the season ended today, but there are a handful of scenarios in which the Utes could earn a top-four seed, though any one of them would require at least one or two — or even more — Pac-12 teams that are ranked in the top 20 in the country to be beaten by an unranked opponent.
First things first, though: The Utes need to beat Washington on Saturday (noon MST, Pac-12 Washington) at the Huntsman Center in their regular-season finale.
Pac-12 tournament seeds if the season ended today
Here’s what seed each team would occupy heading into the final day of the regular season, with their current Pac-12 record:
* seed is already clinched
- *No. 1: Stanford — 14-3 in Pac-12 play
- No. 2: USC — 12-5
- No. 3: UCLA — 12-5
- No. 4: Oregon State — 11-6
- No. 5: Colorado — 11-6
- No. 6: Utah — 11-6
- *No. 7: Arizona — 8-9
- *No. 8: California — 7-10
- No. 9: Washington State — 6-11
- No. 10: Washington — 5-12
- No. 11: Arizona State — 3-14
- No. 12: Oregon — 2-15
Saturday’s Pac-12 women’s basketball schedule
- Washington at No. 18 Utah, noon MST
- No. 7 USC at Arizona State, noon
- California at No. 11 Oregon State, 1 p.m.
- Washington State at No. 13 Colorado, 1 p.m.
- No. 4 Stanford at Oregon, 3 p.m.
- No. 8 UCLA at Arizona, 6 p.m.
How could Utah earn a top-four seed in the Pac-12 tournament?
Five of the six Pac-12 games Saturday will have an impact on how the upper half of the conference tournament seedings will be determined.
While it’s most likely that Utah, USC, UCLA, Oregon State and Colorado all win and nothing changes, any number of upsets will shake up the seedings.
Here’s a look at eight scenarios where, according to the Pac-12 tiebreaker rules, Utah would move into a top-four seed and earn a first-round bye in the Pac-12 tournament:
Scenarios where Utah would earn the No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 tournament
- Utah, UCLA, Oregon State and UCLA win, USC loses.
- Utah, Oregon State and Colorado win, USC and UCLA lose.
- Utah, USC and Oregon State win, UCLA and Colorado lose.
- Utah, UCLA and USC win, Oregon State and Colorado lose.
Scenarios where Utah would earn the No. 3 seed in the Pac-12 tournament
- Utah, UCLA and Colorado win, USC and Oregon State lose.
- Utah and Colorado win, UCLA, USC and Oregon State lose.
- Utah and UCLA win, USC, Oregon State and Colorado lose.
Scenario where Utah would earn the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 tournament
- Utah wins, UCLA, USC, Oregon State and Colorado lose.
When is the Pac-12 women’s basketball tournament?
The 2024 Pac-12 women’s basketball tournament will be played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, with the first round on March 6, quarterfinals on March 7, semifinals on March 8 and championship on March 10.
The top four seeds will earn a bye into the quarterfinals, with seeds 5-12 playing in the first round.
Why could Pac-12 tournament seeding have an impact on the NCAA Tournament?
On Thursday night, the women’s NCAA Tournament committee released its second top-16 reveal with 18 days until Selection Sunday.
Five Pac-12 teams appeared in the top 16, meaning they would all host the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Stanford and UCLA were No. 1 seeds, USC was a No. 2 seed, Oregon State was a No. 3 seed and Colorado was a No. 4 seed.
Utah was the only ranked conference team on the outside of that list.
A deep run at the Pac-12 tournament could vault Utah, which has four wins over top 10 teams this year, into a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
“Everybody’s looking forward to March. Either you’re playing in the NCAA Tournament or you’re ready for your season to be done, right? So February is hard, and now we’re in that time where there’s no room, there’s no time for regression,” Utah coach Lynne Roberts said after the team’s win Thursday over Washington State.