Going into the final week of the regular season, Utah basketball is on a two-game winning streak after beating Stanford and California by an average of 25.5 points during the team’s final home stand.
That win streak has put the Runnin’ Utes (18-11, 9-9 Pac-12) into position to potentially still earn a top-four seed for the upcoming Pac-12 tournament, which would give Utah a first-round bye.
Utah, seen as an NCAA Tournament bubble team who could use a strong finish to the year, heads into the final week of the season with the No. 5 seed and can finish anywhere from the No. 4 to No. 9 seeds.
How could Utah get the No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament?
A couple scenarios exist where the Utes could snag a top-four seed for the upcoming Pac-12 tournament (March 13-16 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas).
It’s also key to note that, entering the week, Utah is tied with UCLA at 9-9 in the Pac-12 standings, but the Utes hold the head-to-head advantage by virtue of their 2-0 record against the Bruins.
Scenario No. 1
- Utah beats Oregon State and Colorado beats Oregon on Thursday. The Buffaloes would clinch the No. 3 seed with that result.
- Utah then beats Oregon on Saturday.
This would bring Utah into a tie for fourth with the Ducks and potentially UCLA (who hosts No. 5 Arizona and Arizona State this week) in the Pac-12 standings.
In either case, the Utes would have the tiebreaker.
If they are tied in the standings with Oregon only, Utah would win the tiebreaker because of its 2-0 record against them (the Utes beat the Ducks in Salt Lake City back in January).
Utah would also have the tiebreaker in a three-way tie between Utah, Oregon and UCLA. The first determining factor in a multiple-team tie is head-to-head record among the group, per Pac-12 tiebreaking rules, and the Utes would have a 4-0 record against the other two.
Scenario No. 2
- Utah beats Oregon State and Oregon beats Colorado on Thursday. The Ducks would clinch the No. 3 seed in this scenario.
- Utah then beats the Ducks on Saturday and Oregon State beats Colorado.
This would have Utah, Colorado and potentially UCLA tied for fourth in the Pac-12 standings.
In a two-team tie with the Buffaloes, it would take two steps to determine the tiebreaker. First is head-to-head competition, and Utah and Colorado split two games this season.
The next step, per Pac-12 tiebreaker rules, is looking at the tied teams’ record, “(won-lost percentage) vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.”
Arizona and Washington State are guaranteed to finish No. 1 and No. 2, not necessarily in that order, in the Pac-12 standings, but both Utah and Colorado had similar records against both schools.
That would force the tiebreaker to apply to the next highest team in the standings, Oregon.
Utah would own the tiebreaker because of its 2-0 record against Oregon, while Colorado would have gone 1-1 against the Ducks.
In a three-team tie between Utah, Colorado and UCLA, the Utes would earn the No. 4 seed because of a 3-1 head-to-head record against the other two.
If the Pac-12 tournament started today …
Here’s what the tournament seeding would look like if the Pac-12 tournament was this week.
It should be noted four teams — California, Stanford, Washington and Washington State — will play their final regular-season games on Thursday, with the rest of the league finishing Saturday. That’s why there are not an even number of games played for each school going into the week:
- No. 1: Arizona — 14-4 in Pac-12 play.
- No. 2: Washington State — 14-5.
- No. 3: Colorado — 11-7 (Colorado holds tiebreaker because of its earlier win over Oregon; they play again Thursday).
- No. 4: Oregon — 11-7.
- No. 5: Utah — 9-9.
- No. 6: UCLA — 9-9 (Utah holds tiebreaker because of its 2-0 season record vs. UCLA).
- No. 7: California — 9-10.
- No. 8: Arizona State — 8-10.
- No. 9: Washington — 8-11.
- No. 10: Stanford — 7-12.
- No. 11: USC — 6-12.
- No. 12: Oregon State — 4-14.
This week’s Pac-12 schedule
Thursday
- Washington at No. 19 Washington State, 7 p.m. MST (FS1)
- Colorado at Oregon, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
- No. 5 Arizona at UCLA, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
- Utah at Oregon State, 9 p.m. (ESPNU)
- California at Stanford, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)
- Arizona State at USC, 9 p.m. (FS1)
Saturday
- Colorado at Oregon State, 3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network)
- Utah at Oregon, 5 p.m. (Pac-12 Network)
- No. 5 Arizona at USC, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
- Arizona State at UCLA, 9 p.m. (FS1)