Every year, the record gets a little more impressive.
For 47 straight years, Utah’s gymnastics team has advanced to the NCAA women’s gymnastics championships, colloquially known as nationals.
The Red Rocks are the only team in the country to make it to nationals every single year they’ve been held. It is a run of excellence that is simply unparalleled.
Forty-eight consecutive trips to nationals is the new mark the Red Rocks will hope to hit this April. In order to do so they must finish either first or second in two regional meets next weekend in Gainesville, Florida.
And per College Gym News’ annual postseason simulator, odds are the Red Rocks will keep making history.
Over the course of 10,000 simulations — more on the methodology in a bit — Utah advanced to nationals nearly 75% of the time (74.86%), the fifth-best percentage among all teams, right in line with the Red Rocks’ No. 5 national ranking.
It is an impressive percentage, all things considered, as Utah is competing in arguably the most difficult of four regionals, with host Florida — ranked No. 4 overall — Big Ten champion and No. 10-ranked Michigan State and a solid No. 13-ranked Missouri team leaving little room for error.
The methodology
As explained by College Gym News, all scores from the 2024 season were collected for the simulation. Additionally, gymnasts’ frequency of competing during the year was taken into account, as were injuries/availability. Home performances were weighted for regional hosts, with road performances weighted for all other teams.
Throughout it all, Utah came out looking pretty good, with a 97.93% chance to finish first or second in its regional semifinal against Michigan State, Maryland and Towson on Friday at 10 a.m.
As previously mentioned, Utah was given a nearly 75% chance to get out of the Gainesville regional with a berth at nationals, just behind host Florida (75.16%).
What does the simulation project?
Things are less positive, according to the simulations, once Utah gets to nationals. Among the top teams, Utah and Florida have the worst odds to make it to the national final — the national championship meet.
There is good reason for that, though.
For one, the Red Rocks and the Gators are on the same side of the bracket as No. 1 Oklahoma, which is a virtual lock to make it to the national title meet (the Sooners have more than a 84% chance to win the national title for a third straight season).
With No. 8 Alabama and No. 11 Michigan also on the same side of the bracket, there is going to be fierce competition for very limited spots.
Moreover, the simulation dinged Utah’s chances to make it to the national championship meet because of the difficulty of its regional. Put simply, Utah’s odds of succeeding at nationals will rise in the simulation if the Red Rocks survive their weekend in Gainesville.
“The top three seeds (Oklahoma, LSU and Cal) are heavy favorites to reach the team final, with Florida and Utah given about equal chances to join them,” explained CGN.
“Part of the reason for these lower percentages for Florida and Utah is because they were given lower chances to reach nationals in the first place; if they both advance out of the Gainesville regional, their chances to reach the final will increase accordingly. With the victors of the Ann Arbor and Gainesville regional being paired together in one national semifinal, it makes sense that Alabama is given a relatively high chance of advancing to the final, since Gainesville is most likely to produce a surprise semifinalist.”
Based off the simulation, the Red Rocks have only a 33.79% chance to be a Final Four team this year, with only a 16.99% chance to match their third-place finishes of the last three years.
Additionally, Utah won the national title only 0.43% of the time over the 10,000 simulations, meaning the drought is likely to continue.
These are of course, nothing more than simulations, and Utah has proven repeatedly in recent years that it can/is likely to overachieve projections.
Utah is one of only three teams this season to score 49-plus on every event in every meet — along with Oklahoma and Alabama — a degree of consistency that bodes well for the Red Rocks, as there almost always seems to be a team that crumbles under the pressure at nationals.
The Red Rocks’ consistency this season offers them a chance to take advantage of any miscues made by opponents. That, and Utah is ranked in the top seven on every event. The Red Rocks don’t have a glaring weakness, which can’t be said of every team they’ll compete against.
Utah is also competing the best it has this season entering the postseason, with scores of 198 in three of its last five meets, including at the Pac-12 championships.
Simulations are fun and all, even instructive, but the Red Rocks believe they can make some real noise this postseason.
As fifth year senior Maile O’Keefe put it after the Pac-12 championships, “We are only up from here.”