Seven weeks ago, when the 2024 college football season began for BYU and Utah, the outlook on the season was vastly different.
The Cougars were the team looking to become bowl eligible after a 5-7 season, while the Utes were expected to be a College Football Playoff contender.
Fast forward a little more than a month and a half, and how things have changed.
That’s reflected in the latest bowl projections from national writers this week — BYU, at 6-0, is tied atop the Big 12 standings and being viewed as a conference contender, while Utah, at 4-2 and with Cam Rising out for the season, is having to readjust its expectations.
What are the latest postseason predictions for both schools? They’ve changed from the last time the Deseret News aggregated a roundup of national bowl projections two weeks ago.
Note: For the time being, Utah State, which is 1-5 on the season, is not showing up in any bowl projections, though if the Aggies do in the future, they will be included in future editions of these bowl projection roundups.
What are the latest bowl projections for BYU?
- Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: CFP first round — No. 9 seed at No. 8 seed Alabama
- Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed Ohio State
- Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: CFP first round — No. 9 seed at No. 8 seed Penn State
- Brett McMurphy, Action Network: CFP first round — No. 11 seed at No. 6 seed Georgia
- Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: CFP quarterfinals (no bowl designated) — No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed Oregon
- Erick Smith, USA Today: Alamo Bowl, vs. Washington State
- Steve Lassan, Athlon Sports: Alamo Bowl, vs. USC
- Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed Oregon
- Oliver Hodgkinson, College Football Network: CFP first round — No. 12 seed at No. 5 seed Penn State
Unlike two weeks ago when BYU was showing up in a College Football Playoff spot in only a couple of bowl projections, now the Cougars are slated for a CFP position in seven of the nine projections used for this story.
The Fiesta Bowl and a CFP first-round matchup on the road are the two most popular picks for BYU at this point, which makes sense considering Iowa State is also unbeaten and tied with the Cougars at 3-0 in Big 12 play (so, too, is 5-1 Texas Tech).
The other projected postseason outcome for BYU that is showing up is a trip to the Alamo Bowl.
During the back half of the season, the Cougars will host Oklahoma State, Kansas and Houston, while traveling to UCF, Utah and Arizona State.
The rivalry game against the Utes could be the toughest remaining game and will likely play a major factor in whether BYU has a shot at the Big 12 title.
What are the latest bowl projections for Utah?
- Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: No bowl projection
- Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Texas Bowl, vs. Arkansas
- Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: Holiday Bowl, vs. Pittsburgh
- Brett McMurphy, Action Network: LA Bowl, vs. Boise State
- Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. Oklahoma
- Erick Smith, USA Today: Holiday Bowl, vs. Duke
- Steve Lassan, Athlon Sports: Holiday Bowl, vs. Syracuse
- Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Sun Bowl, vs. Syracuse
- Oliver Hodgkinson, College Football Network: Holiday Bowl, vs. Pittsburgh
Following two straight losses — and the loss of Rising for the year — the national narrative surrounding Utah has changed.
Now, the Utes are projected to finish the year in a non-CFP bowl matchup, and one writer, ESPN’s Bonagura, didn’t even have the Utes in a bowl game.
The Holiday Bowl is the most popular projection for Utah at this point — the Utes last played in the Holiday Bowl in 2018, losing to Northwestern.
An intriguing matchup on this list would be the Texas Bowl vs. Arkansas — that would allow Utah to face former Utes running back Ja’Quinden Jackson.
Utah has a pair of winnable games in its next two contests — vs. TCU and at Houston — that seem likely to get the Utes to bowl eligibility before starting up what it looking like a difficult November schedule.
Which Big 12 schools are being projected for the College Football Playoff?
Here’s a look at which Big 12 teams are being projected this week to make the College Football Playoff in each of the nine projections used for this article:
- Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: CFP first round — No. 9 seed BYU at No. 8 seed Alabama; CFP first round — No. 10 seed Iowa State vs. No. 7 seed Georgia
- Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed BYU vs. No. 5 seed Ohio State; CFP first round — No. 10 seed Iowa State vs. No. 7 seed Penn State
- Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed Iowa State vs. TBD; CFP first round — No. 9 seed BYU at No. 8 seed Penn State
- Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed Iowa State vs. No. 5 seed Ohio State; CFP first round — No. 11 seed BYU at No. 6 seed Georgia
- Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: CFP quarterfinals (no bowl designated) — No. 4 seed BYU vs. No. 5 seed Oregon
- Erick Smith, USA Today: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — Iowa State vs. Georgia (no seeds designated)
- Steve Lassan, Athlon Sports: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed Kansas State vs. No. 5 seed Ohio State
- Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Fiesta Bowl, CFP quarterfinals — No. 4 seed BYU vs. No. 5 seed Oregon
- Oliver Hodgkinson, College Football Network: CFP first round — No. 12 seed BYU at No. 5 seed Penn State
Iowa State and BYU, not surprisingly, are receiving the most support as potential CFP participants for the Big 12 at this point.
In this week’s bowl projections from nine national writers, the Cougars have a slight edge over the Cyclones.
Three writers have BYU making the CFP quarterfinals, with a first-round bye, while four others predict the Cougars will start the CFP in the first round.
Similarly, three writers have Iowa State earning a first-round bye and a CFP quarterfinal spot, while only two have the Cyclones starting the CFP in the first round.
Kansas State, which is 5-1 on the year and 2-1 in Big 12 play, also received one vote to earn the Big 12′s top spot and an automatic berth in the CFP quarterfinals.
Two of the projections, though, present another interesting scenario where Boise State, as the Mountain West Conference champion, actually leapfrogs the Big 12 champion to earn one of the coveted automatic bids — and a first-round bye — that will be awarded to the top four ranked conference champions.
ESPN’s Bonagura is one of those who predicts the Broncos will earn a CFP first-round bye, though he has BYU and Iowa State making the CFP field as at-large selections.
College Football Network’s Hodgkinson also has Boise State filling the fourth automatic conference champion spot, with projected Big 12 champion BYU earning the No. 12 and final seed in the 12-team CFP field.
