Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah returns to Rice-Eccles Stadium this weekend trying to put a two-game losing streak behind it.
For the Utes, the chance to get right will come against a familiar program: TCU.
Utah and the Horned Frogs were once conference foes in the WAC and Mountain West Conference, and now they are again in the Big 12.
Going into this year’s game, both teams are also in desperate need of a victory — the Utes are 4-2, while TCU is 3-3.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and Utah found the winning formula.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters — I bumped that up from using 10 minutes during the first half of the year, to better reflect an accurate number of possessions per game — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
Isaac Wilson is taking over as QB1 for the Utes going forward, with Cam Rising now out for the season after suffering a leg injury in the loss to Arizona State.
Kyle Whittingham also said there’s a chance Utah would get Karene Reid and Sione Fotu back this week, and I included them in the lineup for the Utes defense in the simulation. Connor O’Toole and Keanu Tanuvasa were kept out again.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game the best I could.
For Utah, it’s the Ute Proud game with a unique look that isn’t available in College Football 25, so I recreated it as best as possible. TCU is going with the ice look — white helmet, jerseys and pants.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?
The actual score: Arizona State 27, Utah 19
College Football 25 simulation final score: Arizona State 24, Utah 17
My analysis: The simulation was able to predict it would be a one-score game where both teams had their share of challenges in a lower-scoring game.
The Utes’ red-zone struggles in real life also made an appearance in the simulation, as Utah came up short on a red-zone trip in the fourth quarter in the video game that could have tied the game.
One big difference is that Rising threw three interceptions in the actual game, while he didn’t have a turnover in the simulation — in the real-life contest, Rising was injured on Utah’s third offensive play and was clearly hobbling after that.
How did the simulation between Utah and TCU play out?
Final score: Utah 37, TCU 14
Key sequence: Early on, TCU had its offense moving the ball, but turnovers hurt the Horned Frogs and flipped the momentum to Utah’s side.
TCU scored first to take a 7-0 lead midway through the first quarter and had a chance to capitalize on Wilson throwing an interception inside the Utah 30 on the ensuing possession.
On third down, though, Tao Johnson intercepted a Josh Hoover pass into the end zone on third down, and while Utah couldn’t move the ball after the turnover, it set a precedent as the Utes forced turnovers on three straight possessions.
Logan Fano recovered a TCU fumble on the next Horned Frogs drive, and that set up a 25-yard Cole Becker field goal.
Then, just minutes into the second quarter, Smith Snowden intercepted Hoover on a pass near the sideline and returned it 42 yards for a pick-six to give Utah the 10-7 lead — that was part of 37 straight points for the Utes, as Utah eventually went into halftime up 20-7.
How the simulation transpired: The Horned Frogs took their second drive for a touchdown after a 27-yard Jack Bech reception got TCU into Utah territory — leading to a 4-yard Major Everhart touchdown catch — but that was the last major highlight for the Horned Frogs until late in the game.
From there, Utah shook off Wilson’s early interception and were spurred by an opportunistic defense to take command of the game before the offense got rolling in the second half.
Following the aforementioned three straight turnovers by TCU that gave Utah a 10-7 lead, the Horned Frogs put together another drive, but their first of two missed field goals left the Utes with a three-point lead.
Utah doubled that with a 32-yard field goal from Becker, after the Utes took nearly six minutes off the clock on a possession that started at Utah’s 20.
After the Utes forced a three and out, the Utes put together a quick touchdown drive just before halftime — Wilson found Mycah Pittman for a 35-yard gain to TCU’s 30, then three plays later, Wilson hit Dorian Singer for a 30-yard touchdown pass on third down with 40 seconds until halftime.
That four-play, 66-yard touchdown drive took just 19 seconds, and it set the tone, as TCU never seriously threatened after that.
Utah pushed that lead to 23-7 with a 21-yard Becker field goal with 30 seconds left in the third quarter, ending a possession where the Utes converted three third downs with three points.
The Utes then made it a three-possession game with 8:29 to play.
On the ensuing possession after Fano picked up a four-yard TFL on third and 2 to force a punt, Wilson connected with Singer for a 31-yard gain to the TCU 39. Later in the drive, Wilson rolled out to his left and found a wide-open Brant Kuithe for a 25-yard touchdown and a 30-7.
Johnson then capped the memorable performance by intercepting Hoover in the end zone for the second time, then weaving his way for a 100-yard pick-six with three minutes to play.
TCU added a last-minute touchdown to account for the final score.
Star players: Wilson threw for 235 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in leading the Utah offense.
Bernard ran for 117 yards to help extend multiple scoring drives, while Pittman added 81 receiving yards on five receptions.
Johnson tied for the team lead with nine tackles and had two interceptions, with 125 interception return yards highlighted by the 100-yard pick-six.
Hoover threw for 453 yards for the Horned Frogs but had more interceptions than touchdowns — three to two. His minus-35 yards rushing kept TCU to 25 rushing yards total on the day.
His favorite target was JP Richardson, who had 13 catches for 156 yards.
Key stats: The Horned Frogs had 478 yards of total offense to Utah’s 326, but the Utes’ defense made several stops in Utah territory to negate TCU’s ability to move the ball between the 20s.
The Horned Frogs’ four turnovers were a major factor in the game, while Utah turned it over just once.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: This could well happen in Saturday’s matchup, though I suspect the contest will be closer than a 23-point game.
Utah’s defense helped feed the Utes offense later in the game, and after a couple of uncharacteristic efforts, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Utes’ defense make a statement against TCU.
