Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
Is Saturday finally the day that Utah will have a get-right game?
The Utes enter their contest at Houston on a three-game losing streak. Offense has been a struggle for Utah, and now the reins have been handed over to interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian.
Will that help Utah generate enough points to beat 2-5 Houston?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and there was more offense than expected in what ended up being a close game.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented.
With no clear indication on their status, I’ve left Utah defensive linemen Connor O’Toole and Junior Tafuna out of the simulation.
Houston quarterback Zeon Chriss was injured last week against Kansas and left the game, but he is expected back for the Utah game.
The uniforms both teams will be wearing were also implemented into the simulation as best as I could tell.
Utah shared a post on X that shows the Utes in a black helmet and white jersey in promoting the game — I added the Utes’ black pants to match.
Houston will be going with a traditional look of red helmet and jersey, with white pants.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?
The actual score: TCU 13, Utah 7
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 37, TCU 14
My analysis: The simulation was way off on how this game played out in reality.
In the video game, the Utes forced several turnovers and had two pick-sixes in blitzing the Horned Frogs.
In actuality, Utah’s offense struggled all night as TCU shut down the Utes.
How did the simulation between Utah and Houston play out?
Final score: Houston 28, Utah 24
Key sequence: Less than a minute after Houston trimmed Utah’s lead to 21-14, the Cougars capitalized on the game’s only turnover.
The Utes looked like they might have a decent drive going, but Dallas Bentley fumbled after a short catch and Houston’s Kentrell Webb returned the fumble 43 yards for a touchdown to knot the game at 21-21.
Houston ended up scoring on its next possession as well, overcoming an early 14-point deficit to turn the tide and win.
How the simulation transpired: This was expected to be a game where points would be at a premium — so of course, the simulation had both teams taking long drives for touchdowns to open the contest.
Utah marched 81 yards in nine plays — with 41 of those yards coming from Micah Bernard on the ground — before Bernard scored on a 5-yard run to make it 7-0 Utes.
The Cougars countered with a 12-play, 80-yard drive that was paced by Stacy Sneed and Chriss, before Joseph Manjack IV caught a 21-yard touchdown with 3:41 left in the first quarter.
The Utes extended that early success, showing off an excellent blend of run and pass — with the ground game setting up the pass — to build a two-score lead in the second quarter by scoring three touchdowns on their first three drives.
Bernard again had several lumbering runs on Utah’s second possession while Isaac Wilson picked up a crucial first down with a QB keeper on third and 2 inside the Houston red zone. That all led to Brant Kuithe scoring easily on a play-action pass for a 3-yard touchdown catch to cap a 15-play, 83-yard drive.
Utah’s first sack of the day, a 10-yarder by Karene Reid, forced Houston to punt on its second possession, and the Utes scored again on the ensuing drive to make it 21-7. Kuithe had a critical 8-yard catch on third down to keep the drive going, and on the next play, Wilson found Money Parks for a 22-yard touchdown with 4:41 until halftime.
Unfortunately for Utah, their offense stalled for much of the game after that early surge.
After empty possessions for both schools to start the third quarter, Houston cut its deficit in half with a 76-yard drive that ended with a Sneed 1-yard touchdown run. Chriss pulled off a 22-yard run on third and 4 to move the Cougars into Utah territory.
On Utah’s next possession, Bentley’s fumble ended up being the only turnover of the day, and Webb’s fumble return for a score made it 21-21 just over a minute after the Utes had led 21-7.
The Utes were stopped short on a third-down play on their next drive, and Houston continued its third-quarter dominance by driving for the go-ahead score. Sneed made a 7-yard catch to convert a third down, then he added a 19-yard touchdown catch on the next play to give Houston a 28-21 lead going into the fourth quarter.
Utah finally responded with a drive that featured a 15-yard Dorian Singer catch and one of 21 yards from Parks, then Bernard had a 9-yard carry to get Utah inside the red zone at the Houston 19. On the next two plays, though, Wilson took back-to-back sacks, and the Utes had to settle for a Cole Becker 48-yard field goal with 8:58 to play.
Houston had a chance to make it a seven-point game with just under two minutes left after another long drive, but the Cougars missed a 46-yard field goal.
That gave Utah one last chance to retake the lead, starting a drive from its 29 with 1:57 to play and all three timeouts, but the Utes’ drive was undone by another sack near midfield and Wilson threw incomplete on fourth down with a minute to play, handing Houston the win.
Star players: Wilson put up modest passing numbers — throwing for 179 yards and two touchdowns — while adding nine rushing yards, though he did have a few nice gains on RPO.
Bernard was the star offensively for Utah, finishing with 201 rushing yards and one touchdown.
Kuithe has seven catches for 52 yards to lead six Utes with multiple receptions.
Defensively, Karene Reid had a nice game with a team-high 10 tackles, 1 tackle for loss and a sack.
Chriss had 262 passing yards with two touchdowns for Houston while adding 42 rushing yards.
Sneed contributed in the run and pass game, with 52 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Carr had six catches for 95 yards to lead the Cougars.
Key stats: Utah owned a slight edge in total yards, with 389 to Houston’s 356 — that included a significant 210-94 edge in rushing yards.
The Utes also went 7 of 14 on third down, compared to Houston’s 5 of 12.
The big determining factor in this one, though, was Utah had the only turnover of the game, and it led directly to seven points for the Cougars.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: I don’t expect there will be this much offense in the actual game.
Besides that, though, it wasn’t surprising to see this contest stay tight and go down to the wire.
