Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
Utah State is in dire need of a win.
So, too, is its opponent this weekend.
Both the Aggies and Wyoming come into Saturday’s matchup with a 1-6 record on the season.
Who will get the victory?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and for Aggie fans, it was a good outcome.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
The Aggies still have several players on the defensive line banged up that were kept out of the simulation.
The biggest blow for Utah State, though, came with Saturday’s news — as first reported by KSL.com’s Nathan Dunn — that star wide receiver Jalen Royals is out for the season.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game the best I could.
Utah State is going with blue helmets and pants, along with white jerseys. There is no information on Wyoming’s uniform combo, so I went with their traditional home jerseys.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?
The actual score: New Mexico 50, Utah State 45
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah State 38, New Mexico 35 (OT)
My analysis: Yes, the simulation didn’t accurately predict the winner of Utah State-New Mexico, but it predicted it would be a crazy game and the real matchup provided plenty of highlights.
In the actual game, Utah State was undone by a poor finish — the Aggies were outscored 21-7 in the fourth quarter of a game they once led 17-0.
In the simulation, the Aggies nearly blew a 21-point lead during the fourth quarter, but won in overtime thanks to a defensive stop.
How did the simulation between Utah State and Wyoming play out?
Final score: Utah State 38, Wyoming 21
Key sequence: Utah State led 17-0 early in the second quarter, but Wyoming’s first promising drive of the day reached the Aggies’ 30.
Safety Torren Union, though, provided a momentum-flipping play, intercepting Evan Svoboda at the Utah State 22 and racing 78 yards the other way for a touchdown.
That gave Utah State a 24-0 lead, which ballooned to 31 points at halftime before the Aggies held off the Cowboys in the second half.
How the simulation transpired: The Aggies, despite not having Royals, rolled in the first half to build an insurmountable lead.
After Wyoming went three and out on the opening possession, Utah State moved the ball quickly downfield before Kyrese White caught a 27-yard touchdown on its first drive.
The Cowboys moved the ball into Utah State territory before stalling, then Spencer Petras found White again, this time on a 61-yard pass play, for another touchdown and a 14-0 lead with three minutes left in the first quarter.
Utah State made it a three-score game with a 52-yard Elliott Nimrod field goal just minutes into the second quarter, then Union’s pick-six pushed the lead out to 24.
Following a pair of empty possessions, the Aggies’ JD Drew intercepted Svoboda inside Wyoming territory at the 40, and that led to a Rahsul Faison 1-yard run with 3:13 until halftime.
Ike Larsen then had Utah State’s third interception of the first half before Wyoming added a last-minute 6-yard Tyler King touchdown to make it 31-7 at the break.
Utah State’s offense started to have struggles in the second half, and Wyoming cut the deficit down with a third-quarter drive that ended with a 21-yard Jaylen Sargent touchdown catch, along with a Sargent two-point conversion catch to make it 31-15.
Nimrod missed a 35-yard field goal with 16 seconds left in the third before the Cowboys capitalized on the miss a few plays later, as King took a short pass 82 yards for a touchdown.
After Wyoming missed the two-point conversion, Utah State led 31-21 with 11:54 to play.
It got even more nerve-wracking for the Aggies before getting better. A bad snap on a punt gave Wyoming possession to start at the Utah State 23, but a 49-yard Wyoming field goal attempt bounced off the goal post.
Utah State then put the game away with a 68-yard drive, highlighted by a 52-yard White reception and a 3-yard Faison touchdown run to make it a 17-point lead.
The Aggies then had a goal-line stand on Wyoming’s final drive before Utah State ran out the clock.
Star players: Petras threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns on an efficient 21 of 24 passing.
Faison put up 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns on a 5.7 per-carry average while adding 42 receiving yards, and White paced the USU receivers with five catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns.
Svoboda threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns, but also three interceptions.
His favorite target was King, who had eight catches for 157 yards and two touchdowns, while Sam Scott led Wyoming with 50 rushing yards.
Key stats: The two teams had similar total offensive numbers, with Utah State finishing with 415 yards to Wyoming’s 420.
The Aggies, though, held a 148-14 edge in rushing yards.
Utah State’s 3-0 advantage in turnovers also played a critical role.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: This seems plausible — the Aggies have shown they can score, though scoring 38 feels a bit high without Royals.
Then again, almost anything could be possible in a game between two 1-win teams.
