Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
For the first time in nearly a month, BYU is back home at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Between a bye week and two road games, the Cougars haven’t played at home since Oct. 18.
Now, BYU returns to Provo for a game in front of the home crowd where the Cougars sit all alone atop the Big 12 standings.
Can Kansas, who’s been playing its best ball of the season as of late, knock off BYU and hand the Cougars their first loss of the season on Saturday night?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and it provided a back-and-forth contest between the Cougars and Jayhawks, with the outcome in doubt until the final minute.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented.
Wide receiver Kody Epps and center Connor Pay finally return for BYU after being sidelined for more than a month due to injury, though right tackle Brayden Keim is out until the postseason and is replaced by Isaiah Jatta in the starting lineup.
I implemented the uniforms both teams will be wearing into the simulation, to the best of my knowledge.
BYU is going with royal blue helmets with a white facemask, royal blue jerseys and white pants with royal blue trim.
It wasn’t clear what Kansas will wear in Provo, so I used their all-white road jerseys, the first away option on the video game.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: BYU 22, Utah 21
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 41, BYU 38
My analysis: The simulation did accurately predict that the game would come down to a last-second field goal — in the video game, Utah kicked the game-winner, but in reality, it was BYU’s Will Ferrin who connected for the game-winning points.
The simulation was also too high-scoring from what actually happened, though it was able to predict that one team would rally from a double-digit deficit. In the simulation, Utah rallied from 21 points down, while in the actual game, BYU rallied from 11 down to win.
How did the simulation between BYU and Kansas play out?
Final score: Kansas 31, BYU 24
Key sequence: Moments after the Jayhawks took a seven-point lead on a field goal midway through the fourth quarter, BYU had a chance to tie the game and was driving.
With the Cougars facing a third down, Jake Retzlaff found Chase Roberts over the middle for a conversion that pushed BYU into Kansas territory at the 46-yard line.
There was a flag on the play, though, as the Cougars were penalized for an ineligible receiver downfield. BYU couldn’t convert the third down after the penalty and was forced to punt, and that ended up being the Cougars’ last solid chance to score after Kansas nearly ran out the clock with its next possession.
How the simulation transpired: For a brief time early in the game, the Cougars led — but for much of the day, BYU was playing catch-up against the Jayhawks.
On BYU’s second possession, the Cougars used completions to Roberts and Epps to move the ball into scoring territory and settled for a 43-yard field goal from Will Ferrin with four minutes left in the first quarter.
Kansas had a quick answer, though, as Quentin Skinner caught a 59-yard pass that pushed the Jayhawks into the BYU red zone. Star quarterback Jalon Daniels then scored on a 5-yard scramble on third and inches to give the Jayhawks a 7-3 lead.
After BYU was forced to punt from near midfield on its next drive, the Cougars appeared prime to make a stop, but a defensive pass interference call on third down allowed Kansas to retain possession. That ended up being a big penalty, as it put the Jayhawks into BYU territory and Kansas eventually scored on a Luke Grimm 11-yard touchdown catch three minutes into the second quarter to go up 14-3.
The Cougars then put together their best drive of the day, moving the ball 77 yards in 11 plays before Epps caught a touchdown pass from 4 yards out to make it 14-10.
The Jayhawks countered with an 85-yard drive of their own, scoring when Daniels shook off a sack attempt, then ran over a defender at the goal line on a 6-yard touchdown run on third down. That gave Kansas a 21-10 lead with 39 seconds until halftime.
BYU, though, took the sliver of time remaining in the half and made the most of it — Retzlaff found Roberts behind the Kansas coverage and hit the Cougars’ star receiver for an 81-yard touchdown pass to make it 21-17 at the break.
After a first half full of explosive offense, defense played a bigger role in the second half.
Kansas took the opening drive of the second half into BYU territory, as Devin Neal rattled off back-to-back long runs to move the ball to the Cougars’ 31. BYU’s Tyler Batty, though, came up with the Cougars’ lone sack of the day, a 9-yarder on first down, and it forced Kansas to punt the ball from BYU’s 39.
That led to another long Roberts touchdown catch — his 77-yard grab on the first play of the ensuing drive gave BYU the lead back at 24-21 with 6:57 left in the third quarter.
The Jayhawks struck back quickly — on the ensuing possession, Neal took a pitch and broke off a 40-yard run to move Kansas to the Cougars’ 6. That led to Grimm’s second touchdown of the day, a 6-yard grab, and the Jayhawks went up 28-24 late in the third.
Both teams traded punts going into the fourth quarter, then Kansas put together another long drive that ended up with a 44-yard field goal with 5:47 to play to make it 31-24.
BYU linebacker Jack Kelly had a key stop to force the field goal attempt, dropping Neal for a 2-yard loss on third and three at the BYU 27.
On the Cougars’ ensuing possession, Retzlaff found Keanu Hill and Epps on back-to-back plays, before the aforementioned third-down penalty that ended up halting the drive and forcing the Cougars to punt.
The Jayhawks then used a solid mix of run and pass to run nearly five minutes off the clock, with the most crucial play coming when Daniels hit Skinner for a 5-yard pass to BYU’s 30 on fourth and 1.
Kansas had a chance to make it a two-score game, but the Jayhawks missed a 27-yard field goal that bounced off the upright.
BYU started its final drive at its own 20-yard line with 52 seconds to play and no timeouts. The Cougars, though, never got past midfield, and a last-play Hail Mary hit the turf, sealing the upset win for the Jayhawks.
Star players: Both quarterbacks had big passing days, though Daniels was more efficient — he completed 70% of his passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns, while Retzlaff completed 57% of his passes for 364 and three touchdowns.
Daniels also ran for 17 yards and two more touchdowns.
In the run game, the Jayhawks’ Neal had 163 rushing yards with a 6.2 yards-per-carry average while BYU’s LJ Martin put up 48 rushing yards with a 3.2-per carry average.
Both schools had receivers put up big numbers. Roberts ended up with four catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns for BYU.
On the Kansas side, Skinner had eight catches for 197 yards, while Grimm finished with six receptions for 73 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Key stats: There was a lot of offense in this one, as Kansas finished with 517 yards of total offense, compared to 405 for BYU.
The Jayhawks, though, established the run, putting up 180 yards on the ground, while the Cougars had just 41 rushing yards in the game.
Kansas had three sacks, while BYU got to Daniels just once, though it helped force a key punt after the Jayhawks reached Cougar territory.
The Cougars were flagged for just two penalties, but both were huge — one extended a drive that Kansas scored a touchdown on, and the other cost BYU a third-down conversion in the fourth quarter and led to a punt on the Cougars’ last possession to reach Kansas territory.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: This feels like a totally plausible result on Saturday night — either team could win a close game at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
The only nitpick here is that both quarterbacks in the simulation well outpaced their normal passing numbers.
