In a little over a week, the Utah men’s basketball team will embark on its first experience playing a grueling 20-game Big 12 conference schedule.
The first test comes at No. 25 Baylor on Dec. 31.
Utah’s 95-88 loss to Iowa last Saturday brought an end to the nonconference season. With 11 games in the rearview mirror, what can be learned about the Runnin’ Utes from their first two months of the season?
‘They are who we thought they were’
That is not just an infamous quote from former Arizona Cardinals coach Dennis Green. Right now, Utah has neither exceeded nor fallen short of expectations.
The Utes are exactly who pundits thought they were heading into the 2024-25 season. Of Utah’s 11 opponents during nonconference play, eight were clear underdogs against the Utes and Utah won all of them — most with ease.
The other three opponents — Mississippi State, Saint Mary’s and Iowa — are all in the realm of being considered Quad 1 opponents by season’s end, and Utah came up short each time.
The Utes’ resume currently includes an 8-0 record against Quad 4 opponents, while they are 0-2 against Quad 1s and 0-1 against Quad 2s.
How will that play out in Big 12 action if Utah — which was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason coaches poll — beats who it is supposed to beat and loses to who it is supposed to lose to?
There are 10 Big 12 teams currently in the top 50 of the NCAA’s NET rankings at this point, while the Utes are the 11th-ranked team at No. 63.
Two national analytics projections believe Utah will go under .500 in its 20-game conference slate — Haslametrics projects Utah to go 8-12 in Big 12 play, while ESPN has the Utes going 6-14.
With an 8-3 record through nonconference play, an 8-12 record in Big 12 action would be the baseline for Utah to have a winning record by the end of the regular season.
For a program that’s on an eight-year absence from the NCAA tournament though, that would be considered another disappointing season.
The Utes have been too one-dimensional against the top competition
Utah will enter Big 12 action ranked second in the league in scoring at 86.7 points per game, and the Utes lead the country in assists per game, averaging 21.3 per game.
Utah is also 14th nationally in averaging 10.9 made 3-pointers per contest.
The Utes’ defensive pressure, though, has been inconsistent when the competition has been tougher. Mississippi State trailed the Utes by 11 at halftime and Utah held the Bulldogs under 40% shooting for the game, but Mississippi State started the second half on a 22-5 run and made 24 of 33 free throws, often finding Utah out of position defensively.
The game was tied in the final two minutes before the Utes lost by five. It stings, considering the Bulldogs now find themselves 11-1 on the year, No. 13 in the NET rankings and No. 19 in the latest Associated Press top 25 poll.
“This is a good team we just played tonight, and it’s that type of team we’re going to see in the Big 12,” Utah coach Craig Smith said at the time.
In the loss to Saint Mary’s, Utah found itself in a 17-point hole at halftime after shooting 23.5% in the first half. Those rare offensive struggles, Smith explained, led to the Utes not being as sharp defensively, and the Gaels took advantage.
While Utah improved dramatically in the second half, it never retook the lead on Saint Mary’s and the Gaels scored on six of their final seven possessions to win what ended up being a nine-point game.
“Teams that want to score sometimes allow not scoring to affect their defense, and that’s the losing we have to eliminate. We missed so many point-blank shots at the rim that were just crazy, but you can’t allow it to take away from your spirit on the other end,” Smith said after the loss to the Gaels.
In the most recent loss — the setback to Iowa — the Utes again dealt with an inconsistent defensive effort.
Utah turned an early deficit into an 11-point lead early in the second half, only to have the Hawkeyes rally. Then, down the stretch, the Utes couldn’t get enough stops as Iowa scored 59 points after halftime and shot 53.1% for the game.
“We shoot 51.5%. I’ve been doing this, in my 14th year, and I don’t know that that’s happened five times where you shoot 51.5% and lose a game,” Smith told reporters.
It’s not a stretch to say that in each of the three losses, a bit better defense here or attacking the boards better there or protecting the paint more vigorously could have led to different results.
“We’re probably eight possessions away from being 11-0. Like, that’s how close we are, if you really look at it, and so that’s the silver lining,” Smith said.
Is this a preview of what life will look like in the Big 12, or can Utah improve in this area?
Smith talked about the team’s identity following the Saint Mary’s loss, and how Utah needs to finish better.
“‘Finish’ has been a big theme. We have to be able to finish, whether it’s finish the possession or finish with the defensive rebound or finish plays at the rim or make your free throws or finish,” Smith said. “We’ve got to be able to finish better than we have been.”
Utah has a talented roster, while rotations still need sorting out
Thanks to graduation losses and a lot of transfer portal attrition, Utah ended up with 10 new faces on its roster this season. That doesn’t include the coaching staff, where Smith had to reconfigure his assistants.
It’s understandable, then, that Utah is taking some time to develop chemistry and cohesiveness amongst this group.
When Utah has played Quad 4 caliber competition, its cohesiveness has looked sharper. When the Utes have played tougher competition, they have looked more discombobulated in longer stretches.
Still, there is undeniable talent on the roster.
Gabe Madsen is the team’s star and leads it by averaging 18.8 points per game. His twin brother, Mason Madsen, has been a key ingredient offensively, adding another scoring punch — he’s averaging 12.3 points per game and scored 24 against Iowa.
Lawson Lovering, in his senior season, has looked stronger and more assertive while learning under new big man coach Josh Eilert. Against Iowa, Lovering scored a career-high 25, and on the year, he’s averaging 13.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game.
Then there is the young talent on the team, guys who have multiple years of eligibility remaining like point guard Miro Little, forwards Ezra Ausar, Jake Wahlin and Keanu Dawes, as well as 6-foot-9 wing Mike Sharavjamts.
Throw in guys like seniors Hunter Erickson and Caleb Lohner, as well as forward Zach Keller, and there’s enough talent and depth on the roster to feel confident that Utah can compete in the Big 12 much better than its last-place projection might indicate, though they’re clearly a few notches lower competitively than the league’s powerhouses such as Iowa State, Kansas, Houston and Baylor.
Utah is still sorting out its rotations. Earlier in the season, Lovering and Keller were absent because of injury, while Lohner was playing on the Utes football team.
For the last couple of weeks, Utah has had its full arsenal of talent available, and at times it’s led to some choppy play and left fans wondering where guys like Dawes, who didn’t get off the bench against Iowa, have been.
Smith, for his part, wondered openly after losing to the Hawkeyes about whether Utah needs to play more length inside — guys like the 6-foot-9 Dawes — to help better control the paint.
Sharavjamts was removed from the starting lineup two games ago after going through his own four-game slump, and he has responded well to the move in limited action.
He’s shot 9 of 11 from the floor with three 3-pointers and averaged 4.5 assists in the two games since then.
With a rare 10-day window from the Iowa loss to its Big 12 opener at Baylor on Dec. 31, what can Utah implement in practice to counter some of these things that need fine-tuning?
“We’ll enjoy a few days off here, four days away,” Smith said, “and then it’s going to be a real grind, with 20 games in 10 weeks.”