If the Utah Hockey Club is to make the playoffs this year, they’ll have to make it past their next opponent in the standings.
The St. Louis Blues, who will be in Salt Lake City on Saturday, currently sit five points ahead of Utah HC with two games in hand.
With one of those games being a head-to-head battle, the math says it’s possible for Utah to surpass St. Louis in the standings.
But what does the logic say? Let’s take a look.
What happened the last time these teams met?
Matias Maccelli’s goal 1:01 into the game against the Rangers on Thursday was the second-fastest goal to open a game in franchise history. The first came from Michael Kesselring the last time they played the Blues. It took him 18 seconds.
Though Utah HC pulled out a 4-2 win from that game against the Blues in November, there was a stretch where it looked like overtime would be necessary.
With 3:21 left in the third, Dylan Guenther sent a centering saucer pass to Logan Cooley on a 2-on-1. Rather than landing on Cooley’s stick, though, it bounced off Blues defenseman Colton Parayko’s foot and into the net.
Jack McBain scored an empty-netter with four seconds left to salt the wound.
Head coach André Tourigny talked a lot after Thursday’s game about uncontrollable factors like that bounce that contribute to the results of hockey games — puck luck, in other words.
The puck luck was in Utah’s favor against the Blues last time and the team is ready for some bounces to go their way again Saturday.
Of course, the phrase “you make your own luck” applies here.
It’s the dog days of the season. When you’re playing every other night and losing consistently, it can be hard to get motivated and put yourself into positions to succeed. But the ability to do that is what ultimately separates the good and bad teams in a league with such high parity.
What do the stats say?
The first stat to acknowledge is Utah’s home record: 6-11-4. St. Louis' away record of 11-10-3 isn’t the greatest, but it gives them a clear advantage over the worst home team in the league.
Utah HC can draw some confidence from their special teams record, though. They’re 21.8% on the power play and 81.6% on the penalty kill, compared to the Blues' 18.5% and 74.1% in the same respective categories.
Utah has a chance to take command of the game through special teams. It might do well to put both Liam O’Brien and Michael Carcone in the lineup at the same time, as they tend to stir the pot and draw a lot of penalties.
The Blues are on a two-game winning streak after knocking off the Calgary Flames on back-to-back nights. They have not won three consecutive games all season, giving them a 0-6-1 record after winning two games in a row.
Where to watch Utah Hockey Club vs. St. Louis Blues
Saturday’s game between Utah and St. Louis starts at 7 p.m. MST.
It will be available on Utah 16 and Utah HC+. Tickets are available for as low as $10.