On paper and by basketball metrics, Saturday night’s matchup between host Utah and rival BYU should be an entertaining one.
Both schools are coming into their first Big 12 matchup — this one at the Huntsman Center (7 p.m. MST, ESPN+) before the two teams finish the regular season at the Marriott Center on March 8 — with similar results so far this year.
The Cougars have a slight edge in overall record — they are 11-5 to Utah’s 10-6 — but both programs are 2-3 in Big 12 play at the quarter mark of the conference schedule.
“It’s obviously always an exciting game. I think when you play those types of rivalry games, everything just goes out the window,” said the Utes’ Gabe Madsen, who was one of the heroes in last year’s Utah win at the Huntsman Center.
Madsen scored 17 points in that 73-69 victory over then-No. 14 BYU, including a step-back 3 with 1:01 remaining that gave the Utes the cushion they needed down the stretch.
“It’s like just, who wants it the most and who’s going to come ready to compete, and I mean it’s pretty hard not to come ready to compete in those games, a lot of energy, it’s really fun,” Madsen said. “Yeah, I’m looking forward to it.”
What the national metrics say about the matchup
Several national college basketball metrics have this one essentially a toss-up as to who will win.
In ESPN’s Analytics, Utah started the week as a slight underdog against BYU, but now the Utes are given a 51.4% chance to beat the Cougars after both teams won earlier this week — Utah at TCU and BYU at home against Oklahoma State.
KenPom favors Utah to win as well, with a 53% chance of winning. KenPom also predicts a 77-76 Utes victory.
Bart Torvik gives Utah a 48% chance of winning in a 77-76 game, while Haslametrics calls the game for the Utes as a slight favorite.
“We’ve played some common opponents, but it’s a great game for the state of Utah. It’s a great game for our fan base. It’s a great game for their fan base. I think you throw all the records out the window. Hopefully the Huntsman Center is packed,” Utah coach Craig Smith said.
What the Utes are saying about the BYU-Utah matchup
While both sides of this year’s matchup have plenty of players who are unfamiliar with the rivalry, especially in an era where the transfer portal can change rosters heavily from year to year, there are some crossover connections for both teams.
Utah guard Hunter Erickson and forward Caleb Lohner both used to play for BYU. Jake Wahlin signed with the Cougars prior to serving a two-year mission for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, then signed with the Utah program after his mission.
Conversely, the Cougars now have big man Keba Keita, who played his first two seasons at Utah. He followed former Utah assistant coach Chris Burgess to Provo to serve under first-year BYU head coach Kevin Young.
“I’ve gone through two years with Keba and two years with Chris and vice versa, and life has a funny way of having its twists and turns,” Smith said. “On the flip side, right now, when Hunter and Caleb were there, that was with a different coaching staff. But you know, we have two guys on our roster from Provo, Jake Wahlin and Hunter, and so it’s funny.”
The Utes, perhaps, have a bit more momentum, as they come in on a two-game winning streak after losing their first three Big 12 Conference games.
That includes a 73-65 victory at TCU on Wednesday night, against a Horned Frogs team that beat BYU in Fort Worth last week.
Smith is trying to make sure his team keeps perspective — both regarding this game, as well as on the season as a whole.
“You’ve got to have a strong backbone. You’ve got to have a strong spine. Got to have internal belief. You have to trust your training. You’ve got to trust yourself. You’ve got to trust everybody around you. That’s easy to say. It can be hard to do when it feels like a lot of things are kind of caving in,” Smith said.
Part of that perspective is growing through adversity, like Utah’s three-game losing skid to start Big 12 play, and pushing forward.
“We’re just really trying to get better, let’s really hone in on the things that we can control,” Smith said. “You know, when everything’s kind of caving in, I’ve said this before, but you got to cut your problems in half. And I think we’ve been really trying to oversimplify and cut our problems in half and keep pushing forward.”
The Cougars, meanwhile, won their last game — at home against Oklahoma State — after dropping three straight.
It’s been a rougher go for BYU than expected in its first season under Young.
Like Utah, the Cougars have yet to earn a Quad 1 win this year.
BYU is led by Richie Saunders, who’s averaging 13.7 points per game, and the team has other veterans like Fousseyni Traore, Trevin Knell and Dallin Hall to lean on, as well as the transfer Keita, as true freshmen Egor Demin and Kanon Catchings adjust to the college game.
“They’ve got a lot of firepower. They’ve got a lot of punch in that lineup over there. They’ve got a lot of size,” Smith said. “A lot of guys can do a lot of different things.”
Smith, who’s faced BYU both as the head coach at Utah and prior to that at Utah State, understands the significance of the rivalry. Last year’s win over the Cougars was his first as a head coach.
“I remember last year, they were ranked No. (14) in the country last year, and we were playing good basketball as well,” Utah’s coach said. “That place was bonkers. I mean, we got a picture of it up in our practice facility.”
For the players, too, there’s an added significance, even if there are plenty of new faces in the rivalry.
“I think there’s just something about it. Everybody gets a little more juiced about it,” said Madsen, who leads this year’s Utah squad by averaging 16.3 points per game.
“It’s just, I’m excited for my brother, Mason (a transfer this year). I’ve been talking to him about it. Just something a little bit different in the building when you get there. And that just makes it really fun.”
What a win would do for Utah
The Utes (10-6, 2-3 Big 12) would move to .500 in Big 12 play if they beat the Cougars, and there’s more significance to a victory if Utah holds serve at home.
Following two games next week where the Utes will again be underdogs — at No. 10 Houston on Tuesday and home against Baylor next Saturday — there are three winnable games following that, if the national analytics are to be believed.
Including the BYU game, Utah is favored in four of its next six games, according to KenPom. That stretch also includes home games against Cincinnati and Colorado, along with a road trip to Oklahoma State.
If the Utes followed those projections, they would sit at 6-5 in Big 12 play — a surprise after that 0-3 start to conference action.
A victory over BYU would classify as a Quad 2 win, and there’s a good chance it stays that way, unless the Cougars fall apart and drops below No. 75 in the NET.
For it to qualify as a Quad 1 opportunity as a home game for Utah, BYU would need to climb from its current spot at No. 47 in the NET to the top 30.
“It definitely means a lot. Every game in the Big 12 is a big game, and they’re going to be a really good team throughout this year,” Erickson said. “So I just think we’ve got a really good opportunity to get one at home and get it on the resume.”