Things are about to get even crazier for BYU basketball.
After winning four straight games, the Cougars have dropped consecutive contests — including a complete blowout dud at Cincinnati this past Saturday.
The next two weeks are critical for BYU.
The Cougars will play in a hostile road environment Tuesday at West Virginia. Then they’ll return to Provo to host a red-hot Kansas State squad and perennial power Kansas before finally heading south for a rematch with Arizona, who captured an 11-point win at the Marriott Center six days ago.
This upcoming stretch will likely make or break BYU’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament.
While things in Provo may soon appear dire, the math still believes the Cougars can end the regular season afloat.
ESPN Analytics and KenPom each use a number of formulas to project specific outcomes for every college basketball game. I looked into the algorithm’s projections for each remaining BYU contest this season to determine how the Cougars’ final record might shake out.
Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics and KenPom give BYU to win that day, with the cumulative record being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.
Injuries, newer game results and a number of other factors will cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now, we’ll stick to what they say ahead of Tuesday’s BYU-West Virginia game.
ESPN Analytics’ projections
BYU’s current record: 15-8 (6-6 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- @ West Virginia — 46.2% chance to win
- vs. Kansas State — 78.7%
- vs. Kansas — 44.1%
- @ Arizona — 19.2%
- @ Arizona State — 58.7%
- vs. West Virginia — 71.4%
- @ Iowa State — 20.4%
- vs. Utah — 79.6%
ESPN Analytics-based projected final record: 19-12 (10-10 in Big 12 play)
KenPom’s projections
BYU’s current record: 15-8 (6-6 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- @ West Virginia — 37% chance to win
- vs. Kansas State — 73%
- vs. Kansas — 44%
- @ Arizona — 20%
- @ Arizona State — 51%
- Vs. West Virginia — 67%
- @ Iowa State — 18%
- vs. Utah — 81%
KenPom-based projected final record: 19-12 (10-10 in Big 12 play)
