When Blake Anderson took over Utah State’s football program in 2021, few if any, thought the Aggies would be in contention for the Mountain West Conference title right away.
It was supposed to be a significant rebuild for Utah State, after the dismal pandemic-marred 2020 season.
Instead, the Aggies won 11 games the first year under Anderson and went 6-2 in conference play, winning the program’s first ever MWC title in football.
That 2021 USU team was great — it beat both Power Five conference opponents it played — but it also benefitted from a particularly advantageous conference schedule.
Of the Aggies’ six regular-season conference wins in 2021, only one came against a team that finished the season with a winning record (Air Force).
Utah State’s two conference losses, meanwhile, came against two (Boise State and Wyoming) of the six MWC teams that ended the year with winning records.
By way of comparison, this past season Utah State played three of the four MWC teams that finished the season with a winning record and lost all three of those games.
All of which is to say the right conference schedule can make or break a season.
Bronco Mendenhall will be in his first year leading Utah State in 2025. Are things lined up to give the Aggies a chance to make some noise in the MWC?
Here are three takeaways from the Utah State football’s 2025 conference schedule.
The road may not be kind to Utah State
The Aggies won’t play a road game in conference play until Oct. 11 when they travel to Hawaii.
That trip is the beginning of what could be considered a tough road slate, though.
The Rainbow Warriors notoriously are a much better team at home than on the road.
In 2024, Hawaii played Boise State tough in the islands, for a time, and then nearly upset the visiting UNLV Rebels. Hawaii also barely lost at home to UCLA and defeated both Nevada and New Mexico. The win over New Mexico (and Mendenhall) cost the Lobos a shot at bowl eligibility.
Utah State can beat Hawaii on the road. The Aggies have won four straight road games in the series in fact. But plenty of good to great teams have been undone by the trip to the islands.
Utah State also travels to New Mexico, where the Aggies and Mendenhall will surely get a frosty greeting.
Mendenhall left New Mexico after only a single season in Albuquerque (this time around), a decision that did not sit well with UNM fans.
New Lobos head coach Jason Eck, meanwhile, proved during his time at Idaho that he can give more talented teams all they can handle. Last season, Idaho beat Wyoming and only lost to Oregon by 10 points on the road.
Utah State is certain to get a rough reception in Albuquerque and the Lobos have been tougher in recent years. New Mexico took Utah State to double-overtime in 2023 before the Aggies' eked out the win. And last season the Lobos defeated the Aggies in Logan.
Utah State also travels to UNLV, the MWC runners-up, and Fresno State.
UNLV and Fresno State were two of only five MWC teams to win at least six games last season, and although the Rebels lost head coach Barry Odom (he took the job at Purdue), they replaced him with former Mississippi State and Florida head coach Dan Mullen.
Fresno State, meanwhile, has been one of the better MWC teams over the last five years, even with a bit of a downturn in its first year under Tim Skipper.
To put it simply, there are no gimme road games for Utah State in conference in 2025.
The Aggies will have to prove their worth
Of Utah State’s eight conference games in 2025, half are against teams that finished in the top half of the MWC standings last season.
That includes Boise State, UNLV, San Jose State and Fresno State.
Three additional opponents — Air Force, Hawaii and New Mexico — all finished 5-7.
Which means the Aggies will play seven of the top 8 MWC teams from last season.
The road games have already been noted, but Utah State also has to welcome the Broncos, Falcons and Spartans to Logan.
Utah State’s struggles against Boise State are well known. A win over BSU would be one of the biggest wins in program history at this point.
But the Aggies have also lost half of the homes games they’ve played against Air Force since joining the Mountain West and were soundly beaten by the Falcons in 2023.
Throw in a SJSU team that was competitive in almost every game played last season in its first year under Ken Niumatalolo and ease likely won’t be associated with Utah State’s 2025 schedule.
The Aggies will have to earn almost every single conference victory they get.
Is Utah State set up to run out of gas or make some noise?
This past season, Utah State was undone, in a big way, by an extremely difficult start to the season. A start that included games against USC, Utah, Boise State and UNLV.
Injuries piled up and the Aggies couldn’t get any real sort of momentum going until late in the year when the schedule softened significantly.
By way of comparison, there really is no softening of the schedule in 2025.
In the nonconference, Utah State has winnable home games against UTEP and McNeese State in the first five weeks, but the Aggies also host Air Force and travel to both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
It USU starts the 2025 season 3-2 overall, most would say that things are going pretty well under Mendenhall. But that might be the best the Aggies could do.
After that opening five game stretch, USU travels to Hawaii and New Mexico, while also hosting San Jose State.
No juggernauts involved in that three-game window, but no gimmes either.
And then, following a bye on Nov. 1, Utah State plays four straight games including against Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State back-to-back-to-back to end the season.
There is an argument that the 2025 schedule lines up well for Utah State to make serious noise. The chief competition for the Mountain West title are on the Aggies' schedule. And games against the Broncos, Bulldogs and Rebels late in the year could enable Utah State to wreck havoc in the conference title race.
There is also an argument to be made, though, that Utah State’s schedule is built in such a way that it will prevent any sort of real momentum from being generated. There isn’t a clear path – right now — to consecutive wins. At any point really.
Can the Aggies pull off a run like in 2021?
The 2021 season for Utah State football probably won’t be replicated again, if any time soon.
It took something of a perfect storm that involved landing the right transfers, having established talent already on the roster plus a favorable schedule for Utah State to pull off the miracle turnaround and win the Mountain West.
Utah State may have landed the right transfer again under Mendenhall. He definitely believes in the talent he and his staff have brought in. And there is talent already on the Aggie roster.
But the 2025 schedule, Mountain West Conference schedule specifically, just doesn’t line up in a way for Utah State to have a real shot at title contention.
Bowl eligibility is a real possibility, and you never know when a team will coalesce into one to remember. But the Aggies' 2025 slate doesn’t appear like it will do the team any favors.
