Be prepared to be stunned again in the Big 12.
A year ago, the favorites crashed, and those picked to hover around the bottom of the standings rose up.
It was a remarkable exercise of hole diving and resurrection.
ASU was picked last and won the Big 12 title game. Utah was picked to be the champion and struggled to win five games.
You have to like this league for its competitive value. One year ago, any team could beat any other team on any given week, and that might just be the case again this year.
Oh, you have your favorites, and some teams are simply better than others, but injuries, momentum, consistency, turnovers and long road games have basically made predicting the standings an exercise in tossing darts.
Phil Steele predicts Baylor to win the Big 12, with Utah second and Iowa State third. Like many experts, he believes in Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson and pays tribute to Utah’s great defensive reputation and imported offensive coordinator Jason Beck and QB Devon Dampier. He throws the defending champ a bone at No. 4 but declares Iowa State will finish third. He has BYU No. 8.
Alex Kirshner of Opta Analyst picks Kansas State to win the Big 12 with Baylor second, followed by Kansas, Texas Tech and ASU at fifth. He has BYU No. 7 and Utah 13th.
See the evidence? It’s a crapshoot.
Brett Ciancia of “Pick Six Previews” has an extensive look at the season, Steele’s product. He uses an endorsement by Stassen.com to declare he has “the most accurate college preview since 2014.”
In 2024 Ciancia had Utah picked No. 1 and Baylor way down at No. 12. He had Kansas State No. 2 and Oklahoma State at No. 3. He had UCF, Arizona, Iowa State and TCU tied at No. 6 and projected BYU next to last at No. 14 before the Cougars finished 11-2 and were ranked in the Top 10 for a week.
Last year, the Big 12 pistol-whipped Ciancia’s preview.
In 2025, Ciancia has ASU to win the Big 12 and defend its title. He has Baylor and Texas Tech tied at No. 2 followed by the Utes at No. 4. He has TCU and Kansas State tied at No. 5, Iowa State seventh and BYU No. 8.
The Always Talkin’ Podcast has Baylor and ASU playing for the Big 12 title with Utah 7th and BYU 9th.
Looking at every matchup in the Big 12 for the entire season, “First and XII --A Big 12 Podcast” projected the total records for all the league teams in 2025. The projection has Iowa State at 11-1, ASU, BYU, Texas Tech and Baylor at 10-2, TCU to finish 9-3 and Kansas State and Utah at 8-4.
Kelly Ford at Statswar says Big 12 teams have a 32% chance to win at least four league games and no team has better than a 32% chance to win at least seven conference games. He has Kansas State No. 1, followed by No. 2 ASU, No. 3 Baylor, No. 4 Texas Tech, BYU at No. 5 and Utah No. 8 behind TCU and Kansas.
At PEAratings, Kansas State is picked No. 1, followed by TCU, then Baylor. BYU is 8th and Utah 14th.
As one can see, these projections are all over the place. Generally, Baylor and Kansas State are considered the top teams with ASU somewhere near the top.
For the locals, all these projections generally have Utah and BYU in the middle of the pack in a league that will be famous for upsets, victims of sneaky comebacks and strange scores.
This is a league of quarterbacks. The Big 12 has perhaps the deepest QB group of any conference in the country, and that puts a premium on Utah’s Dampier and whomever BYU chooses to take the reins. The clock is ticking, however, and the sooner the decision is made in Provo the better.
Bottom line?
Hold on to your tailgate plates. This is going to be fun, and no matter the source, remember, no one is an expert in predicting the Big 12. Nobody knows how it will turn out.
It’s roulette.