Five games into the 2025 season, what do we know about Utah State football? Specifically, where do the Aggies fall in the pecking order of the Mountain West Conference?
Before the season, there was little belief outside of Cache Valley that Utah State would make a bowl game in 2025, let alone contend for the conference title.
Now that the Aggies are 3-2 overall (1-0 in conference play) with competitive losses on the road at ranked SEC opponents (Texas A&M and Vanderbilt) are they perceived differently?
Let’s take a look.
What does ESPN’s Football Power Index say about Utah State football?
While maybe not the best metric for ranking teams — there’s an argument to be made at least — ESPN’s FPI is nonetheless one of the most used, and from the preseason to now, Utah State has vaulted up the charts.
Before the season, the Aggies were projected to win four games and finish in the bottom third of the MWC. Now? USU is No. 4 in the MWC, ranked No. 76 nationally and is projected to win seven games.
The Aggies have an 84% chance to become bowl eligible — once considered a long shot — and have the fourth-best odds to win the conference (5.4%) behind Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State.
Utah State even is even given a chance, albeit a very slim one, of making it to the College Football Playoff.
Helping the Aggies vault up the rankings is their schedule, both the teams they’ve already played and that teams that are on tap for later this year.
Right now, per ESPN, Utah State has the fourth-best strength of record in the MWC, the hardest schedule by far in the conference thus far at No. 16 and a relatively manageable schedule going forward (86, which is middle of the road in the conference).
What do ESPN’s SP+ rankings say about Utah State football?
Even more than FPI, ESPN’s SP+ rankings can rankle. The creation of Bill Connelly, SP+ takes into account past seasons, as well as current performances, returning players, among other things.
As Connelly explains it, “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does.”
SP+ has not been a fan of the Aggies for years now, with multiple middling seasons really hurting USU’s chances of moving up. After five games this season, though, Utah State is much better positioned in the SP+ rankings than it was before the season.
Now No. 84 out of 135 teams, the Aggies are fifth in the MWC, the highest they’ve been in the league in SP+ since the 2021 season.
SP+ is very high on the Aggies when it comes to offense and special teams, with USU ranking top 50 in the sport in both phases of the game.
The Aggies defense still has some work to do to impress Connelly’s system though, with USU coming in at No. 123 overall.
What do Kelley Ford’s rankings say about Utah State football?
Aside from FPI, no rankings have been more impressed by the Aggies’ start to the season than Kelley Ford’s.
Before the season, Utah State was a considered a low- to mid-tier MWC team. Not bad, per se, but not a team of note.
Through five games, however, only 10 programs in the country have made a higher leap in the rankings than the Aggies, who’ve leapt 7.4 spots.
Currently, Kelley Ford has Utah State No. 83 in the country, fourth in the MWC.
Like SP+, Kelley Ford has been impressed by USU’s offense, which it ranks the Aggies No. 46 nationally, trailing only Boise State and UNLV in the MWC.
Utah State is right in the middle of the FBS when it comes to “most deserving rankings,” and the Aggies are considered a top 80 team when it comes to watchability.
What do the Massey ratings say about Utah State football?
The rating that is most favorable towards the Aggies is Massey. Utah State comes at No. 75 nationally. USU is No. 6 in the MWC, with Massey looking favorably on many MWC teams.
Utah State is the fourth highest rated 3-2 Group of Five team in the country, behind only East Carolina, Ohio and Toledo.
In every metric used by Massey, more than 10 in total, the Aggies are a top 100 team, but generally USU falls between No. 70 and No. 80.
What do the Sagarin ratings say about Utah State football?
In what should be seen as a trend at this point, Sagarin is a fan of Aggies, who’ve improved significantly in estimation since the season began.
Now rated No. 83 overall, the Aggies are No. 3 in the MWC.
That rating is based on the entire season, with the Aggies’ most recent performances really impressing. Recent ratings have Utah State No. 67 overall, third in the MWC behind only Boise State and Fresno State.
What to make of Utah State football?
Across the board, the Aggies are clearly viewed more favorably now than they were before the season began. Wins over UTEP, McNeese State and Air Force clearly helped, as did semi-competitive showings against Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, a team that wasn’t even expected to become bowl eligible this season is a dark horse MWC title contender, with games scheduled against all the other expected contenders.
The Aggies are still in the early stages of the rebuild under Bronco Mendenhall, but it is clear that people are becoming believers as to what Mendenhall can accomplish at Utah State, even in Year 1.
