You can regurgitate all the stats and data points you want to prove who should be favored as No. 15 BYU hosts No. 23 Utah Saturday night at LaVell Edwards Stadium. But it means nothing.
Of interest, there isn’t much difference in the statistical rankings of the Utes and Cougars. They are twins, carbon copies, mirror images of one another.
Go down everything on defense and offense and, with a few minuscule exceptions, Utah and BYU have the same national rankings in stats. Both rank among the top 20 in most statistical categories.
So, whatever advantage one can claim over the other with the numbers game, don’t get too deep in the weeds.
It won’t matter.
This game will come down to who turns the ball over the most and when.
Throw the rest out the door.
In this regard, Utah has built a lopsided win advantage the past decade, which included a nine-game win streak over the Cougars. The Utes feasted on BYU turnovers, be it pick-sixes, scoop-and-scores, interceptions, blocked field goals, or turnovers on downs near the goal line. It goes on and on.
In BYU’s recent two-game win streak in the rivalry games, the Cougars avoided turnovers and protected the ball, and it ended up being the deciding factor.
It will again Saturday night.
“Turnover margin will be the deciding factor in this game,” BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick told reporters this week after a practice session. “It’s super important in any game to protect the ball and for defenses to get takeaways.”
Right now, BYU ranks 29th nationally in turnover margin while Utah ranks 56th.
But even that seeming advantage for BYU can be thrown out in this game, because the rivalry contest seems to create its own reality.
Two players who will handle the ball the most in this game are Utah quarterback Devon Dampier, and BYU’s freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.
Dampier is a fleet-footed cheetah who specializes in short passes (70%) and leans on his running ability to keep plays and drives alive. He’s older, confident, productive and a leader.
Bachmeier is a young but confident, burly rookie and averages more yards per pass than Dampier with an impressive 64% accuracy. He’s not afraid to run and use his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame to gain yards and keep drives alive. He is BYU’s second-leading rusher.
Here’s the statistical breakdown on this pair, starting with win-loss record:
Dampier: (5–1) Passing: 1,131 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT, 71.5%. Rushing: 65 carries, 378 yards, 5.8 YPC, 5 TDs.
Bachmeier: (6–0) Passing: 1,220 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT, 63%. Rushing: 71 carries, 295 yards, 4.2 YPC, 7 TD.
Here’s the catch: Neither of these players have played in this storied rivalry game.
These two are about to find out what pressure and emotion it brings. The way they handle it will prove key in how many turnovers they are a part of Saturday night.
This will be the largest crowd Dampier has ever played before.
Both Utah and BYU will try to run the ball; they both excel at this.
Both defenses will make stopping the run the No. 1 priority.
Utah wants Bachmeier to pass so they can attack the pocket and blitz him crosseyed.
BYU really wants Dampier to face third-and-longs so he has to pass; they want him to get out of his comfort zone and toss the ball downfield, where they believe they can get interceptions.
Utah is better at sacks.
BYU is better at pass efficiency defense, No. 6 nationally.
Utah leads the nation in converting third downs.
BYU is 10th nationally in yards allowed per attempt at 5.52.
But there we go, getting in the statistical weeds. It simply doesn’t matter.
This game is intriguing because both coaching staffs know they need to protect their QBs from making costly mistakes. Both defenses know they must stop the run and then try to force turnovers in the passing game.
I like Utah’s offensive line, but I do think BYU has an advantage in linebackers, corners and receivers.
It should be a real donnybrook, a made-for-TV primetime event.
This week’s predictions
- LSU 38, Vanderbilt 21
- Georgia Tech 28, Duke 10
- Michigan 24, Washington 21
- Arizona 28, Houston 24
- Baylor 34, TCU 27
- Oklahoma 33, South Carolina 27
- UCF 21, West Virginia 17
- Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 21
- Texas A&M 40, Arkansas 24
- Georgia 31, Ole Miss 28
- Texas Tech 33, Arizona State 24
- Oregon 41, Rutgers 24
- Texas 34, Kentucky 17
- UCLA 21, Maryland 17
- Alabama 24, Tennessee 21
- Notre Dame 27, USC 21
- Cincinnati 37, Oklahoma State 14
- BYU 24, Utah 21
Last week: 12-5; overall 91-24 (.791)