A week ago, Utah arrived at the first of a critical two-game stretch that had the possibility to define its season.
One down (a dominant 42-10 win over a Sam Leavitt-less Arizona State team, then ranked No. 21), one to go.
After the win over ASU, No. 23 Utah (5-1, 2-1) arrives in Provo to face No. 15 BYU (6-0, 3-0) for a midseason rivalry clash that has the potential to make or break its season.
It’s possible, but unlikely, that a 10-2 Utah team would make it to the Big 12 championship game, so in essence, every game from here on out is a must-win for the Utes.
Perhaps no game on the remainder of Utah’s schedule will be as tough as Saturday’s rivalry matchup, though a Nov. 1 game vs. undefeated No. 24 Cincinnati at Rice-Eccles Stadium looms large.
There’s been rivalry games with bigger stakes before for one side — in 2004 and 2008, BYU was the only team left in Utah’s quest for an undefeated season and BCS game berth — but there’s an argument that this year’s clash is one of only a few rivalry games with huge stakes on the line for both teams.
The last ranked matchup between the two teams came in 2009, a 26-23 Cougar overtime win, and Saturday’s game is just the fourth time the two historical rivals have met in 103 (or 97) games played, depending on which school you ask.
Because of the midseason placement, the rivalry game won’t solely determine whether the winner goes to the Big 12 championship game — there’s still five regular-season games left for both teams after Saturday — but could have an impact on the title race. The potential College Football Playoff implications are something new to this rivalry, and that ratchets up the intensity that much more.
After Saturday’s game, Utah has home games against Colorado, Cincinnati and Kansas State, and is currently favored by ESPN’s analytics to win all three of those games. The Utes will have two road games remaining, at Baylor and at Kansas, and are favored to win those games, too.
The only game the Utes aren’t favored to win in ESPN’s matchup predictor? Saturday’s game in Provo, in which ESPN gives the Cougars a slim 50.6% edge, though Utah is favored by 3.5 points in Vegas.
Beat BYU, and the road to the Big 12 championship — and a potential rematch vs. Texas Tech, which dealt Utah its only loss of the season — is open, though it would require plenty of great football from the Utes to stay undefeated against some good teams.
A loss to the Cougars would all but assure the Utes won’t appear in the conference championship game.
There’s plenty at stake for both sides, but Utah is feeling a little more pressure this year. With one conference loss, Utah can ill afford another one, and in addition, the Utes have lost two consecutive games to the Cougars.
Utah will try to stop that streak in its tracks Saturday night.
In the past two years when both teams have been in the same conference, the Cougars have been on equal — or better — footing than the Utes.
Utah beat BYU in every meeting but one when the Utes were in the Pac-12 and BYU was a football independent, but since joining a power conference, the Cougars have some momentum.
BYU has made gains on Utah pretty much everywhere, including on the recruiting trail. The Cougars have put together the No. 23 recruiting class in 2026, according to 247Sports, while the Utes are at No. 44.
“It’s a big game and recruiting is at stake and a lot of things are at stake, bragging rights for fans and all that stuff. But at the end of the day, it is a football game that is won by the team that does the fundamentals, the techniques, the behaviors the best, usually ends up winning that game,” Ute defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley said on ESPN 700.
While the results of Saturday’s game are unlikely to sway a recruit one way or another, it’s more about the overall directions of the programs. The Cougars have been on a roll since last year’s 11-2 campaign, while the Utes went 5-7.
A win over the Cougars and a possible Big 12 championship game appearance would prove that the Utes are back on track after a couple of disappointing seasons.
There’s also the question of if this is the final year in Kyle Whittingham’s storied career at Utah. If it is, he will want nothing more than to go out with a win against the school he once played for.
Standing in his way is an undefeated Cougar team that has surpassed preseason expectations.
BYU is 6-0, but will be facing its biggest test so far this season when it welcomes Utah to LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Cougar freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has exceeded expectations, throwing for 1,220 yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions on 63.2% completion and has also rushed for 295 yards and seven scores.
He has led two come-from-behind victories and has not looked rattled in his short career, but will be facing the best defense he’s seen in Utah this week.
“The confidence only keeps building with him and this is a young man that does not get rattled that easily and man does he make plays, whether throwing the ball and he’s got a hose that he can zip it. He’s got the ability to run. He’s a big tank that when he pulls it down, everyone’s got to be ready to run and tackle,” Scalley said on ESPN 700.
The Utes’ run defense will be facing another test this week against LJ Martin and the Cougars. Utah has given up 139.8 rushing yards per game, tied for No. 61 in the country, though some of that has come during garbage time in blowouts.
Against dual-threat quarterback Jeff Sims and a talented rusher in ASU’s Raleek Brown, Utah allowed 149 ASU rushing yards.
The Cougars will try to win this one on the ground, getting Martin, one of the nation’s top backs who is averaging 108.7 yards per game, going early.
“LJ, that guy has some of the best contact balance that you’ll see. Rarely does he go down on the first hit, very strong lower body, very good ball security. He’s a running back that most teams covet because he doesn’t make many mistakes. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, he’s going to protect the ball and he’s got really good contact balance, which is why you see so many yards after contact with him,” Scalley said on ESPN 700.
As for Bachmeier’s receiving targets, three stand out. Chase Roberts (420 yards on 22 receptions) and Parker Kingston (333 yards on 23 receptions) are the Cougars’ two leading receivers, while former Ute tight end Carsen Ryan has notched 211 yards on 14 catches.
“We’re a man-coverage team, so you got to be disruptive. They’re very good route runners and this is a group of wide receivers with Jay’s (Hill) defense that has experienced press (coverage in practice), so you can see they’re much more savvy maybe versus a press corner than some of your other squads,” Scalley said on ESPN 700.
Meanwhile, BYU will be the second-biggest test this Utah offense has faced so far.
Former Ute Jay Hill’s defense has been stingy and excellent against the run, allowing just 104.2 yards per game. Just like the Cougars, Utah has been good at rushing the ball, led by Wayshawn Parker and NaQuari Rogers, averaging 248.2 rushing yards per game. Dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier also can make teams pay on the ground.
Utah is a run-first offense, and against Arizona State, ran all over the Devils. The Cougars’ No. 1 priority will be to contain that rushing attack, which is something only Texas Tech has been able to do thus far.
The Utes don’t take a lot of deep chances — the pass game is mostly short and intermediate — and while Jason Beck’s passing offense has worked well enough in five of Utah’s six games, the Cougars will be content if Dampier has to beat them through the air, something he’s rarely had to do this year.
Dampier has improved from last season at New Mexico, and now that he’s close to 100% after an injury that hampered him vs. Texas Tech, he’s been able to reach his potential.
Dampier has thrown for 1,131 yards and 11 touchdowns with three interceptions on 71.5% completion and has added 378 yards and five scores on the ground, including a 120-yard, three-touchdown rushing performance against Arizona State.
If there’s one clear advantage in a matchup of two very similar teams, it’s Utah’s offensive line vs. BYU’s pass rush. Getting to the quarterback has been the a weak spot for the Cougars this season, while the Utes have allowed just three sacks of Dampier.
BYU’s defense has 10 sacks on the year, No. 92 in the country (Utah is tied for No. 25 in the nation with 16 sacks) and has 87 total pressures on the year, in contrast with Utah’s 118.
Of course, the turnover battle looms huge. In this rivalry especially, whichever team takes the ball away the most usually wins.
In a rivalry that has produced so many close and exciting games, Saturday’s showdown could be another down-to-the-wire thriller.
“Between the two teams, there’s a lot of similarities statistically,” Whittingham said.
“Both rushing for roughly the same amount, throwing for roughly the same amount, scoring roughly the same amount,” the Utah coach pointed out this week. “Defensively, there’s a lot of similarities as well, both in the upper third of the conference in most of the key stats and so should make for a great matchup.”
