Can BYU, Utah and Utah State go 3-0 this week in conference play?
Yes, but only one of those games appears to be a lock.
On Saturday, the No. 11 Cougars face a crucial road challenge at Iowa State, a program they haven’t defeated in five tries. Iowa State will have had two weeks to prepare and their backs are against the wall after losses to Colorado and Cincinnati.
Utah, fresh off a disappointing loss to BYU, is a double-digit favorite over Colorado in Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday. The Utes should be focused, motivated and determined to get back on the winning track, and of the three local teams with key games, Utah should deliver fans a much-needed league win over the Buffs.
In Albuquerque, Bronco Mendenhall returns to New Mexico, a team he left after just a year, and you can expect the folks in that stadium will remind him of how he ran out the door.
Mendenhall’s team is capable of winning this game because of Bryson Barnes and his playmaking.
For the Cougars, once again, they’re on a mission to prove that they are worthy to be ranked.
At 7-0, there is a chorus of people, lots of pundits, who maintain the Cougars are good, but question if they are really good enough to be ranked 11th. They cite a close game at Colorado, a double overtime win at Arizona, a less-than-style-point win over West Virginia, and a hold-on victory over Utah in which the Utes “out-statted” the Cougars.
BYU, they say, just gets by.
Those are all valid arguments. Just like a year ago, when many believed BYU was lucky to get to 11-2. That’s fair, they were lucky.
But as Urban Meyer once said when at Utah, a team works hard to make those “lucky” plays, so it isn’t luck.
Is that a valid argument with what we’re seeing with BYU, 18-2 in the past 20 games?
Iowa State poses one of the biggest challenges the Cougars will have faced this year. A week ago, critics said BYU was 6-0 but hadn’t beat anybody. Until they defeated Utah, a team favored on BYU’s home field. Now, it’s yeah, they beat Utah but the Utes had more first downs, more yards and, well, there were calls that went against the Utes.
This Iowa State game will display what BYU is and is not.
Why? Because the Cyclones have a solid program, good athletes and elite coaching. It’s a daylight game, it’s before the biggest crowd the Cougars have faced all year, and the event comes after an emotional win over Utah. It’s squarely in the “letdown” category.
On the other hand, one must recognize BYU is winning right now because it is excelling in the margins: getting timely turnovers, huge special teams play, critical defensive stops at the right time, and effective balanced offensive football.
BYU is winning in what could be called the “machinery” of football. Grinding out one-on-one wins with 11 players on both sides of the ball when it counts.
Stats guru Ralph Sokolowsky points out on X: BYU outranks Iowa State in 8 of 14 offense stats with 3 ties; BYU outranks Iowa St in 11 of 13 defense stats with 2 ties. BYU outranks Iowa State in 7 of 12 special team/other stats with 3 ties. Overall, the Cougars outrank the Cyclones in 26 of 39 stats with 8 ties.
So, there’s that.
The Cougars are winning because they’ve got depth to platoon players and have displayed superior conditioning late in the fourth quarter with big plays. They’ve had injuries, but they haven’t been catastrophic.
And they’ve got a leader and playmaker in quarterback Bear Bachmeier, as well as the leading rusher in the league, LJ Martin.
Iowa State’s defensive coordinator explained BYU this way: “It’s 11-man football vertically and horizontally across the field.”
For BYU, facing Iowa State presents a unique challenge with QB Rocco Becht. He is the most accurate deep passer the Cougars have faced. Where Arizona’s Noah Fifita extended plays with his legs, was accurate off the run and had a very strong arm, Becht is a better thrower and runner out of the pocket — he’s bigger too.
If BYU wants to get to Arlington for the Big 12 championship game, they need to win one of the next two games. A year ago at this stage of the season, the Cougars lost to Kansas after beating Utah. It ended an undefeated season, and the subsequent loss at Arizona State set up a tie-breaker that killed chances to play in the league title game.
This game puts BYU right at those crossroads once again.
Is BYU a good team or a potential championship team?
This game will answer that question. Iowa State has lost at home only once the past two seasons.
This week’s predictions
- Indiana 38, UCLA 24
- Georgia Tech 34, Syracuse 21
- Oklahoma 34, Ole Miss 31
- Kansas 28, Kansas State 21
- Arkansas 31, Auburn 21
- Utah State 21, New Mexico 17
- Vanderbilt 27, Missouri 24
- Washington 37, Illinois 31
- Cincinnati 38, Baylor 34
- Miami 34, Stanford 24
- Texas A&M 28, LSU 17
- Arizona State 31, Houston 28
- Utah 28, Colorado 17
- BYU 27, Iowa State 24
Last week: 13-4; overall 104-28 (.787)