No. 8 BYU’s clash with No. 9 Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday is the first top-10 vs. top-10 matchup in school history. It also puts the nation’s focus on the Big 12, a league that is fighting to prove it is among the top Power conferences in college football.
It is the only top-10 matchup in the country and will be broadcast nationally on ABC, the mothership of the ESPN family. The Big 12 hasn’t had a regular season game on ABC in two years. By having that exposure this game could reach more than 5 million viewers, and that figure could go up to the 8 million to 10 million range — by far the most-viewed league game over the past few seasons.
In this piece by Jay Drew, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake explains that with so much on the line — national rankings, the first CFP poll out, the league title on the line along with preserving the team’s perfect record — his only focus is BYU improving and giving its best against Texas Tech.
Cougar Insiders predictions
Question of the week: If BYU finds a way to go to Texas Tech and win, it would cement a top-10 ranking at a critical time of the season, but if the 10-point underdog Cougars lose to the Red Raiders in Lubbock, how much will they fall in the AP and CFP polls and why? Give a prediction.
Jay Drew: Should No. 8 BYU fall at No. 9 Texas Tech on Saturday, the Cougars will certainly fall in the Associated Press Top 25 rankings and also in the College Football Playoff rankings. How far is the biggest question.
My hunch is that it depends a lot on how the game plays out. If BYU shows that it belongs on the big stage, and the game is reasonably competitive, I don’t think it will fall beyond No. 12 or No. 13.
However, if the Cougars get blown out — and that is a distinct possibility — I can see them dropping into the high teens, maybe even somewhere around 20. Why? Because my sense is that voters and the CFP committee are a bit skeptical of the Cougars, because they have won a lot of close games, just like last year. They haven’t really blown anybody out. They haven’t built up a lot of style points.
A loss will count the same in the league standings and certainly won’t take BYU out of the Big 12 race. But a big loss will have repercussions with the committee, when their assessments matter far more than those of media voters.
Prediction: Texas Tech 42, BYU 28
Dick Harmon: When you go 8-0, it is a remarkable achievement. There are only four teams in the country who are undefeated after 10 weeks of play — the Cougars, Texas A&M, Indiana and Ohio State.
With BYU ranked No. 8 and playing No. 9 Texas Tech, you would think a loss by the underdog Cougars on the road would primarily reverse the rankings of these two Big 12 teams. That would give both teams one loss.
But that’s not how the polls have gone so far this season.
BYU’s comeback wins, the close margins of victories have sullied some involved in the polls and they’ve held their noses while advancing BYU in the top 10 this past week. Utah’s jump in the polls with blowout wins over Colorado and Cincinnati showed that gaudy numbers do mean something.
But shortening the game, making it a defensive fight and playing conservative and balanced football with an emphasis on getting turnovers is BYU’s game plan. Close wins are still wins. The greater BYU’s turnovers gained, the bigger BYU’s margin of victory.
Pollsters have put one-loss Alabama, Georgia, Oregon and Ole Miss in the top 10 and have allowed a two-loss Notre Dame to be ranked No. 10. So, if fair treatment is applied, a BYU loss should keep the Cougars in the top 10 if the game is close, but they’ll drop out if they get killed. I think this game will be similar to the TT vs. Utah game, where it is close until late, and then one team will fire off a few huge plays and make it look worse than it is.
That won’t bode well if the loser is BYU. If the Cougars go 3-1 to finish the season, they will be in Arlington and possibly get to the CFP. The odds are that the Cougars will get that one loss this weekend in Lubbock. On the other hand, Jay Hill has had two weeks to draw up a way to slow down the Raiders.
Prediction: Texas Tech 28, BYU 21
Cougar tales
Kevin Young rolled out his No. 8-ranked version of Cougar basketball with projected No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa on Monday night. It looked like a work in progress at times in Las Vegas as the Cougars beat Villanova with stingy defense and spectacular play from Keba Keita. Here is our coverage of the Cougars’ opener:
- Dybantsa delivers in career opener (Jay Drew)
- What Villanova’s coach said after loss to BYU (Jackson Payne)
- How did social media react to BYU win (Jackson Payne)
- Three takeaways from BYU win over ‘Nova (Jackson Payne)
From the archives
From X-verse
- Changes for four undefeated to remain so (@365SportsYT)
- Ryder Lyons mission revealed (@TeeplesCY)
- Here are B12 tiebreaker rules (@Cougarstats)
Extra points
- TT hungry for national respect, like BYU (Lubbock Avalanche)
- Analyst believes Bear is a Heisman candidate (Deseret News)
- Yahoo piece on AJ, why he chose BYU (Yahoo Sports)
Fanalysts
Comments from Deseret News readers:
Whether it’s BYU or TT that wins, I feel like it’s like the race at the end of The Incredibles. It’s OK for either team to win, but for the conference to get two (or more) teams in, it looks best — and avoids one team getting bumped way down the rankings — if whoever wins, does so in a close, well-played game.
I’m hoping for the Cougars, but I think TT is the better team. At least keep it close and play hard, play well. TCU is 6-2, Cincy is 7-2. Those are going to be two tough games. If BYU loses Saturday, it will likely have to beat at least one of those two, very good teams to make it to Arlington (we’ve seen this movie before ...).
— Sinew South
To quote Nick Saban regarding being favored in a game or resting upon success to date:
“Rat Poison.”
The best thing for BYU is to always be underestimated, the underdog, not favored, and yes even disrespected. It bolsters Sitake’s mantra of being hungry and humble.
Tech is going to be a real tough game on the road with a well-publicized group of NIL talent that is likewise hungrier than ever before after dropping one to Arizona State they would like to have back.
No different than Utah that is on a tear after losing to BYU, which made them more hungry than before.
The Cincy and Tech games on the road are turning out to be the real and most difficult challenge ahead this season.
— Jayon Meline
Up next
- Nov. 5 | 6 p.m. | women’s volleyball | @ Arizona
- Nov. 6 | TBA | women’s tennis | ITA, Seattle
- Nov. 7 | TBA | women’s tennis | CSUN, Northridge
- Nov. 7 | 4 p.m. | swimming | UNLV
- Nov. 7 | 7 p.m. | women’s volleyball | @ Arizona
- Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | football | @ Texas Tech
- Nov. 8 | 2 p.m. | women’s basketball | San Jose State
- Nov. 8 | 7 p.m. | men’s basketball | Holy Cross
- Nov. 11| 7 p.m. | men’s basketball | Delaware