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One of the surprises from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season, which were released Tuesday night, was that Utah came in at No. 13.
That’s up four spots from where Kyle Whittingham’s squad is currently sitting in the latest Associated Press top 25 rankings.
Utah (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) is one of three Big 12 teams in the first edition of the CFP rankings, with BYU at No. 7 and Texas Tech at No. 8.
The Utes’ two losses this season came to the Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) and Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12), who will face each other this Saturday at 10 a.m. MST in Lubbock, Texas, a game that will be televised on ABC and has ESPN’s “College GameDay” in town.
While Utah needs some results to break its way to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game, do the Utes have a shot at the playoff if they win out in the regular season, even if they miss the league title game?
The odds currently favor BYU and Texas Tech to meet again in the Big 12 championship game next month, though there’s still plenty to be decided in the conference race. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Red Raiders have a 46.2% chance of winning the Big 12 and BYU has a 35.5% chance. Utah is next, at 10.8%.
The winner of the Big 12 will earn an automatic bid into the playoff, and if BYU and Texas Tech win the games they are favored to down the stretch — the Red Raiders are the favorites this weekend — the Cougars and Red Raiders would meet again in the Big 12 title game.
For Utah, its No. 13 ranking is its second-highest ever in the first CFP rankings of the season. The only other time the Utes were higher to start was in 2019, when Utah was No. 8 in the first CFP rankings.
That year, the Utes climbed as high as No. 5 before playing in the Pac-12 championship game for the second straight year. The Utes lost that game to Oregon and fell to No. 11 in the final CFP rankings.
Since then, the CFP has expanded from four teams to 12, with the first year of an expanded field occurring last season.
Currently, Utah would be the third team outside of the playoff field, behind No. 11 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma, with four weeks left in the regular season and conference championship weekend.
Five conference champions earn automatic bids, and in the first CFP rankings, two of those conference leaders are ranked lower than Utah. That includes the ACC, where Virginia (No. 14), Louisville (No. 15), Georgia Tech (No. 17) and Miami (No. 18) are all ranked behind the Utes.
On one hand, it’s not highly likely that the Big 12 would have a shot at getting three teams in the CFP.
On the other, could Utah be able to sneak into the playoff picture with a favorable end-of-year schedule? The Utes are favored by more than 79%, according to ESPN’s FPI, to win each of their final three games, and ESPN is giving Utah the highest odds (44.3%) among Big 12 schools to win out in the regular season with four weeks to play.
Utah also is looked upon favorably by the metrics in a year where, when the Utes win, they’re beating their opponents by an average of more than 36 points per game. Last weekend, Utah beat then-No. 17 Cincinnati 45-14 at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
The Utes’ two losses have come against two teams in the top 8 of the rankings as well. Going into Saturday, BYU and Texas Tech have a combined 16-1 record on the season, and Utah briefly took a fourth-quarter lead against both teams in the Utes’ two losses.
ESPN’s FPI currently gives Utah a 27.9% chance to make the playoff, third among Big 12 teams, with BYU at 65.5% and Texas Tech at 59.3%.
Utah’s initial positioning in the CFP rankings — and the potential it opens up to earn an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff — brought mixed reactions from social media and national college football experts.
Pete Fiutak, College Football News: “The committee did a nice job with this. Margin of victory actually does matter, but it goes a few ways. The Utes destroyed Cincinnati and Arizona State, and they’ve walloped everyone else, hanging 42 or more in every win but the 31-6 victory over Wyoming. This is the right spot.”
Brad Shepard, Bleacher Report: “There is way too much value being placed on coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utes’ mediocre résumé. I guess this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, so a 45-14 dismantling of No. 17 Cincinnati last weekend in Salt Lake City is fresh on everybody’s mind, but that’s pretty much the only feather in the Utes’ headband.”
Stewart Mandel, The Athletic: “Utah is No. 13, four spots higher than AP. The metrics *love* Utah.”
Shehan Jeyarajah, CBS Sports: “No. 7 BYU, No. 8 Texas Tech, No. 13 Utah. The Big 12 has to be *thrilled* with these rankings.”
John Kurtz, Open for Business (Big 12 newsletter): “Utah is sitting so pretty right now. Cushy end to its schedule, chilling at 13. Good chance they don’t make the Big 12 title game and just inch up into a playoff spot.”
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