The eyes of the nation will peek in at BYU and Texas Tech on Saturday. What they should see is a pair of top-10 heavyweights wrestling each other to the turf.
What they’ll actually get, who knows?
No. 7-ranked BYU must go 3-1 to ensure a Big 12 championship game appearance in Arlington, and that campaign begins Saturday in Lubbock against No. 8-ranked Texas Tech in Jones AT&T Stadium.
The Red Raiders are favored by 10 points over the Cougars and they’ll be protecting their home turf while fighting for that same Big 12 title game.
The Cougars and Raiders are among six teams in FBS with a top-20 scoring offense and scoring defense. BYU ranks No. 19 in scoring with a 36.3 average and is No. 16 in scoring defense at 17.0 points allowed per game. Texas Tech ranks No. 3 in scoring offense at 43.6 points and is No. 5 in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game.
The team that wins this will need to control two key elements: physicality and turnovers.
Both have proven to excel in these areas. BYU has the edge in turnover margin, ranked No. 3 in the country; Tech is 13th.
But this physicality deal is real.
Texas Tech is used to imposing its will on teams and jumping out to early leads. BYU tends to start slow and then physically wear down opponents, especially in the fourth quarter.
The Cougars cannot afford to start from behind, as they did at the Iowa State and Arizona road games. When they face Texas Tech on the field, it will be a donnybrook from the opening kickoff.
Speaking to the Big 12 football studio podcast this week, Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire put it this way: “We’ve got to be extremely physical. This is a big-boy game. This is going to be who wants to play football the most. BYU’s extremely physical and they’re taking the ball away at a high rate. They are a plus-10 on the year in turnover margin and we’re a plus-eight. It’s one of the oldest stats in football, whoever wins the turnover battle.
“It’s going to be a fight for all four quarters and we have to be willing to be the first to fight. I tell our guys we’re first to fight and be the last one standing.”
The Cougars are going to have to find a way to draw Tech’s safeties into the box to stop the run, then use play-action to set up some passes. They’ll try to do this against the No. 1 rushing defense in the country.
To date, BYU has been able to do this because of outstanding offensive line play and the use of the legs of LJ Martin and Bear Bachmeier. You will know very early in this game if BYU will be able to pull off this formula.
Texas Tech wants to stop the run and force the pass, and then use the best defensive end in the country, David Bailey (11.4 sacks), to put pressure on Bachmeier and force him to make mistakes, even fumble or throw interceptions.
The Raiders feature the national leader in forced fumbles, a peanut-poking linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (seven forced fumbles). Martin, Bachmeier and receivers Parker Kingston, Chase Roberts and JoJo Phillips will need to have keen ball protection when he’s around.
This is the biggest game on TT’s field since the clash with Texas in 2008. That was the year the Raiders last hosted “College GameDay,” and now it’s back with the chore of taking on undefeated BYU, 8-0.
This will be the best team, the best defense and most explosive offense BYU has faced this season — or since facing No. 13-ranked Utah, and won.
But this time, it won’t be in Provo.
The Cougars have yet to play a full clean game this season, or since the Portland State game in Provo over a weak FCS opponent. Head coach Kalani Sitake, offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick and defensive coordinator Jay Hill will need to get the best execution possible out of their team that’s had two weeks to rest and prepare.
On the other hand, TT has played six-straight games and will either be finely tuned or in a little need of a rest entering this game.
The rest gave BYU a chance to get back Martin, linebackers Siale Esera, Jack Kelly and safety Raider Damuni, along with receiver Phillips.
By playing six-straight games, TT quarterback Behren Morton, who has missed several games, including the team’s only loss at ASU, has not had as much time to heal up.
A big question: Does a rested-up BYU and Jay Hill defense with two weeks to prepare have an edge on a TT team that comes in without a week off to heal up — if this is indeed a physical contest of bodies on bodies?
It should be a classic.
This week’s predictions
- Indiana 42, Penn State 21
- Georgia 28, Mississippi State 21
- West Virginia 31, Colorado 17
- Ohio State 37, Purdue 14
- Texas A&M 33, Missouri 21
- Oregon 27, Iowa 24
- Miami 28, Syracuse 21
- Arizona 34, Kansas 27
- TCU 34, Iowa State 24
- Vanderbilt 27, Auburn 19
- Washington 27, Wisconsin 21
- Virginia 31, Wake Forest 17
- Alabama 38, LSU 17
- Nevada 28, Utah State 14
- UCLA 21, Nebraska 20
- Texas Tech 28, BYU 24
Last week: 12-5; overall 125-37 (.771)