Five of the six teams who are still alive in the race for a Big 12 championship game berth are playing this weekend — league leader Texas Tech is the only one who is on a bye.
That puts plenty of importance on the Big 12 schedule in Week 13, as four of the weekend’s seven league games will have some sort of implication to the conference chase.
Here’s a look at four games critical to the league chase that take place in Week 13.
Kansas State at No. 12 Utah
Saturday, 2 p.m. MST (ESPN2)
The Utes (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) are on a roll, having won their last three games and five of their last six. And Utah is winning big — its 35.3 margin of victory in its eight wins leads the country.
Even so, the Utes will need help to reach the Big 12 championship game besides just winning out — if Cincinnati beats BYU on Saturday, the odds become better for Utah to find their way into the Big 12 championship game,
ESPN’s analytics give Utah an 88.6% chance of winning against Kansas State (5-5, 4-3 Big 12), who’s underwhelmed this season. After that, the Utes hit the road for a season finale at Kansas the day after Thanksgiving.
If Utah wins out, there is still hope that the Utes can make the Big 12 title game.
TCU at No. 23 Houston
Saturday, 2 p.m. MST (Fox)
When Houston (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) lost against West Virginia earlier this month, it was a big blow to the Cougars’ standing in the Big 12 race.
And yet, with two weeks left in the regular season, Houston still is very much alive in the league race.
The Cougars no longer control their destiny — like Utah, they’d need help — but Houston has something to play for when TCU visits this weekend.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a humbling 44-13 loss at BYU.
If Houston loses, though, that takes them out of contention and gives BYU improved odds to make the Big 12 title game, even if they lose once.
No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati
Saturday, 6 p.m. MST (Fox)
BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) delivered a big win when it really needed a blowout last week, as the Cougars rolled past TCU in a 31-point win.
The stakes get even higher this week, as BYU travels to Cincinnati to face the Bearcats.
Three weeks ago, Cincinnati was headed into Utah with a perfect Big 12 record to face the Utes. After losing to Utah and Arizona, though, the Bearcats are on a losing streak for the first time this season.
Cincinnati still has a shot at a Big 12 championship berth, though, and that requires beating BYU.
The Cougars, meanwhile, would take a huge step toward clinching a spot if they win on the road at Cincinnati.
BYU could even clinch a Big 12 championship spot this weekend if it wins and gets some help (see the scenarios below).
No. 25 Arizona State at Colorado
Saturday, 6 p.m. MST (ESPN2)
The defending Big 12 champion Sun Devils (7-3, 5-2 Big 12) are still in the race, thanks to their propensity to win close games.
All five of Arizona State’s conference wins this season have come by five or fewer points.
Last week, the Sun Devils avoided disaster and held off West Virginia.
Like Utah, Houston and Cincinnati, Arizona State needs help to reach the Big 12 championship. But the Sun Devils are heavy favorites to win this weekend, and if they do, they keep that hope going into the final weekend of the regular season.
Big 12 championship game berth-clinching scenarios in Week 13
Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), which is on a bye this week, can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship with one of these two scenarios:
- An Arizona State loss AND a BYU win
- Losses by Arizona State, Utah AND BYU
BYU, which plays at Cincinnati this week, can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship with one of these two scenarios:
- A win over Cincinnati AND losses by Arizona State and Houston
- A win over Cincinnati AND an Arizona State loss AND a Utah win