BYU is just one win away from playing in its first-ever Big 12 championship game.
After defeating Cincinnati 26-14 on Saturday, the Cougars improved to 10-1 overall and 7-1 in Big 12 play. With a win over UCF (5-6, 2-6 Big 12) in Provo next Saturday, BYU would punch its ticket to the Big 12 championship game just three years into its membership in the conference.
Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) can also clinch its place in the Big 12 championship game with a win at West Virginia (4-7, 2-6 Big 12) or an Arizona State loss.
BYU and Texas Tech appear on a collision course for a rematch with a College Football Playoff berth at stake. The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 in the first meeting between the schools in Lubbock, Texas, on November 8.
With one week remaining in Big 12 play, four teams are still alive for the title game — BYU (7-1), Texas Tech (7-1), Utah (6-2) and Arizona State (6-2).
Cincinnati (5-3) and Houston (5-3) were eliminated from the title race after the Bearcats lost to BYU and the (red) Cougars lost to TCU.
BYU will be heavy favorites in its home finale against UCF, but should the Cougars lose to the Knights, there is still a path for them to get to AT&T Stadium — home of the Dallas Cowboys and host of the Big 12 championship game.
An Arizona State loss to Arizona sends the Cougars to the Big 12 title. With the Sun Devils and Wildcats playing on Friday, BYU could know if it is in the Big 12 title game before it plays on Saturday.
Arizona State (8-3, 6-2 Big 12) needs a win against Arizona (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) and a BYU loss to UCF to clinch its place in the Big 12 championship game. In that case, the Sun Devils would own the tiebreaker against BYU (and Utah, in a three-team tie between ASU, BYU and Utah) due to their record against common conference opponents.
Utah is somehow still alive for its first Big 12 title berth despite losing to both BYU and Texas Tech this season, but the Utes have the most unlikely path of all to the Big 12 title game.
The Utes’ path would require BYU to beat UCF, Utah to beat Kansas, Arizona State to beat Arizona and West Virginia to beat Texas Tech.
Texas Tech would be eliminated from the three-team tiebreaker due to record against common conference opponents played equal times (Texas Tech lost to West Virginia in this scenario, while Utah and Arizona State beat West Virginia). Then, Arizona State and Utah would be in a tiebreaker, which Utah would win due to the head-to-head victory.
That would result in a Utah vs. BYU Big 12 championship game with a College Football Playoff spot on the line.
Texas Tech will be a heavy favorite over West Virginia — ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Red Raiders a 91.6% chance of winning.