And then there were four.
Going into the final week of the college football regular season, four Big 12 teams remain in the hunt for a spot in the league’s championship game.
The path is considerably easier for Texas Tech and BYU.
Utah and Arizona State must win, and they will need some help.
Those four schools will be in the spotlight this weekend as the two spots in the Big 12 championship game will be earned over the next couple of days.
Here’s a look at four games critical to the league chase that take place in Week 14.
No. 13 Utah at Kansas
Friday, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN)
The Utes (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) are on a four-game winning streak going into the regular-season finale, but they’ll need another win to keep their slim hopes alive of 1) making the Big 12 championship game and 2) reaching the College Football Playoff.
Utah fell one spot in the CFP committee’s rankings this week after a comeback win over Kansas State, the only Utes win this season that wasn’t a blowout.
It’s an indication of just how the committee views the Big 12 and likely sees it as a one-team league. The reality is that if Utah wants to break into the CFP, the Utes will need to make the Big 12 title game and win to earn the automatic berth.
For the Utes to reach the championship game, they’ll need to beat Kansas — they are heavy favorites — and then need wins from BYU and Arizona State, as well as a loss from Texas Tech.
That’s the only path to the Big 12 championship for the Utes.
No. 25 Arizona at No. 20 Arizona State
Friday, 7 p.m. MST (Fox)
The Sun Devils (8-3, 6-2 Big 12) have kept their shot at defending their Big 12 title alive by finding ways to win, despite losing quarterback Sam Leavitt for the season and having star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson sidelined due to injury for significant stretches.
The Territorial Cup will provide another stiff challenge, as Arizona (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) is on a four-game winning streak. The Wildcats, led by quarterback Noah Fifita, are playing as well as most any team in the Big 12 right now and, while they don’t have a chance at making the Big 12 title game, they can spoil the chances of their rival.
Arizona State has a few paths to the Big 12 championship, but every one requires a win over Arizona and help from other schools.
Here are their three scenarios to a path to Arlington:
- A win over Arizona + a Texas Tech loss AND a Utah loss AND a BYU win OR
- A win over Arizona + a BYU loss AND a Utah loss OR
- A win over Arizona + a Texas Tech loss AND a BYU loss AND a Utah win
Conversely, if Arizona State loses Friday night, it would set the Big 12 championship matchup, clinching spots for both Texas Tech and BYU.
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia
Saturday, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN)
While the Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) are the clear class of the league, they still haven’t clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game because of a tight race at the top of the standings.
It’s simple, though — if Texas Tech beats West Virginia, they are in the Big 12 championship game.
The Red Raiders would also clinch a spot if Arizona State loses Friday night.
Texas Tech is heavily favored to beat 4-7 West Virginia — ESPN’s analytics give the Red Raiders a 91.5% chance to win that game.
If the Red Raiders somehow lose, it would open the door for teams like Utah or Arizona State to sneak in.
UCF at No. 11 BYU
Saturday, 11 a.m. MST (ESPN2)
The Cougars (10-1, 7-1 Big 12) control their destiny to make the Big 12 championship game — win and they’re in.
BYU also would clinch a spot if Arizona State loses Friday night.
There’s also a third possible scenario to make the Big 12 title game for the Cougars if they lose — in that scenario, Texas Tech would also need to lose, while Arizona State and Utah would need to win.
After missing out on a spot in the league title game last year due to tiebreakers in a four-way tie atop the Big 12 standings, it’s a comfort for BYU and its fans to know that one more win will get them in this season.
While BYU ranks No. 11 in the CFP committee rankings, its most likely scenario for making the playoff is winning the Big 12 championship and earning the league’s automatic bid to the CFP.
Earning an at-large bid to the playoff just seems too much of a long shot at this point.