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The Big 12 championship game Saturday morning in Arlington, Texas, between BYU and Texas Tech looms as a critical moment for both teams — and the league. There is little question the Big 12 has been slighted in CFP rankings and this is a day to display what the league can provide.
For the Cougars, this is a chance to show far better than they did in early November against Texas Tech, and do it in Arlington in AT&T Stadium in one of the first league championships of the day on national television.
Tech is listed as an almost two-touchdown favorite in this game — primarily because of BYU’s 29-7 loss in the first meeting.
BYU is playing for its 24th conference championship in school history, and it would be its first in the Big 12. The last time BYU won a conference title was in 2007 in the Mountain West Conference. The last time BYU played in a conference championship game was back in 1998 in the Western Athletic Conference against Air Force.
The last time BYU played a team in a rematch from the regular season was 2007 against UCLA. The Cougars lost to the Bruins in September, 27-17, and faced them again in the Las Vegas Bowl that same season. BYU won the rematch 17-16, thanks to a blocked field goal by defensive lineman Eathyn Manumaleuna.
Here’s my big picture dive into BYU’s 11-1 regular season finish before the Big 12 championship game in Arlington on Saturday.
Cougar Insider predictions
Question of the week: BYU is a significant underdog to Texas Tech this Saturday in the Big 12 championship game. If the Cougars are able to pull off the upset, list a few thoughts on how and why. Predict the score.
Jay Drew: I was there in BYU’s postgame interview room after Texas Tech routed BYU 29-7 in Lubbock last month, and when I heard star receiver Chase Roberts say that the Cougars would win their next three games and see the Red Raiders in the conference championship game, and that they would win said title game, I had to suppress a giggle.
Well, the first half of Roberts’ bold proclamation happened — BYU downed TCU, Cincinnati and UCF by double digits to get to Arlington this week. It was a remarkable run and should be commended, especially considering the Cougars did it without Roberts for most of the Cincy game and all of the UCF game.
Now, BYU faces perhaps its biggest game in school history (since 1984, at least) and a win over TT at AT&T Stadium would be truly remarkable. That margin of victory for TT in Lubbock could easily have been larger, but the home team struggled in the red zone.
What does BYU have to do to pull off the upset as a two-touchdown underdog? First, Aaron Roderick has to throw caution to the wind on offense. Forget about those max protect schemes to deal with Tech’s ferocious pass rush and well-paid defensive line and get the ball to the playmakers — Roberts, LJ Martin, Parker Kingston, Cody Hagen and JoJo Phillips.
Defensively, the Cougars need to stick to the bend-but-don’t-break principles that worked last time in Lubbock, but perhaps pressure QB Behren Morton a bit more. But they have to contain the dual-threat star, not give up any long QB scrambles.
Special teams was a disaster in Lubbock, and obviously that must be cleaned up as well. BYU can’t afford to give the heavy favorites any freebies.
A fast start is imperative; Tech has outscored opponents 164-13 in the first quarter this season. That’s crazy good. I think BYU will keep it closer this time, but Texas Tech just has too much talent across the board.
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, BYU 24
Dick Harmon: BYU has come a long way the past two years to be in this Big 12 championship game. The Cougars should have been there last year but for a complicated matrix of tiebreakers and an untimely road loss at ASU. In both these games with TT, BYU could see what it will take in the talent bank to win a title outright and get the automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. The Raiders have created the roadmap: NIL talent.
Look for BYU to play far better this time around. At Lubbock, the Cougars simply choked. The moment was big, their freshman QB got rattled, BYU did not attack TT like ASU did in that Sun Devil win and special teams had a massive meltdown. Those were all nerves, on the road, on a big stage. This neutral field at AT&T Stadium is still in Texas, but it will be more manageable for the Cougars. The question is, will it be enough?
BYU will win this game if they can pound the Tech defense with a far-more-confident LJ Martin and the comeback kid Sione Moa, and establish a workable play-action game. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will need to attack TT’s edges with the pass game and force the Raiders to have to defend more turf than they did in Lubbock. Martin must run for more than 100 yards and BYU has to win the turnover battle. Still, that may not be enough.
I think BYU’s defense will, again, give TT all it can handle and put the Cougars in a position to win this game in the fourth quarter. BYU’s red-zone defense in the first game was amazing and Jay Hill’s schemes held TT to its lowest point total since the loss at ASU (22 points).
That Martin and Moa are available is huge, but BYU needs Chase Roberts back on the field. If these three combined with more usage of TE Carsen Ryan can give TT more to worry about, the Cougars have a chance. The distraction of Kalani Sitake’s situation with Penn State didn’t help matters this week — it is a distraction, at least on social media.
TT’s defense is the best BYU has faced in a decade. The Raiders, in my opinion, are a top-three team and could win it all.
Prediction: Texas Tech 28, BYU 21
Cougar tales
BYU basketball will finish the rest of the season without guard Dawson Baker after it was announced he has multiple season-ending injuries. BYU joins four other Utah colleges in NCAA Volleyball Tournament. After two wins in Orlando, Cougar basketball remains ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll.
Here’s Jackson Payne’s story of BYU’s second-half surge in a win over Dayton in Orlando this past weekend. Kennard Davis Jr. returned to BYU’s lineup with a huge game.
Sydney Bennally earned her first Big 12 freshman of the week honors in a women’s basketball win over Virginia Tech.
Here’s a look at the latest bowl projections and where BYU could end up if TT beats the Cougars in Arlington.
From the archives
From the X-verse
Extra points
- Big 12 commissioner hypes title game (Deseret News)
- BYU hoops a second-half team? (Deseret News)
- Crumbl CEO spearheads Sitake love (KSL Sports)
Up next
- Dec. 3 | 2 p.m. | women’s basketball | Washington State
- Dec. 3 | 7 p.m. | men’s basketball | Cal Baptist
- Dec. 4 | 6 p.m. | women’s volleyball | @ Cal Poly
- Dec. 6 | 8 a.m. | track and field | @ Boston University
- Dec. 6 | 10 a.m. | football | Texas Tech, Arlington
- Dec. 6 | 6 p.m. | women’s basketball | @ Portland
- Dec. 6 | 4:30 p.m. | men’s basketball | Clemson (MSG)