Last week, Rep. Andy Biggs touted that he was the only Republican candidate in Arizona’s gubernatorial race who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement as well as support from Turning Point USA’s late founder, Charlie Kirk, and his wife, Erika Kirk.
Biggs was speaking to a crowd of 30,000 people gathered at the Phoenix Convention Center for TPUSA’s AmericaFest, a conservative conference.
Charlie Kirk was assassinated on a Utah college campus in September 2025. TPUSA has not only endorsed Biggs but also helped organize his campaign launch rally in May, nearly 1½ years ahead of the election.
Erika Kirk has taken the reins of TPUSA, and the conservative conference was her first major outing as the new leader of the organization.
The state’s gubernatorial and congressional races are heating up with significant endorsements, shifting political alliances, and the strategic influence of groups like TPUSA.
In the gubernatorial race, Biggs has positioned himself prominently by securing endorsements, proving to be a robust challenge in the 2026 election.
Meanwhile, races in key districts such as the open 1st Congressional District signify high stakes, with candidates like Dr. Amish Shah and Gina Swoboda vying for seats as national and local forces converge to shape the future political landscape. These elections promise to be a litmus test for both parties’ appeal to Arizona’s electorate.
What are Arizonans looking for?
Last week, Biggs, a Latter-day Saint and Brigham Young University grad, also told the audience he is pushing for Congress to install a statue of Charlie Kirk in Washington, D.C. He even asked attendees to ask House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., scheduled to speak later in the day, to make the statue a reality. Johnson later promised he would try, earning loud cheers from the crowd.
TPUSA wants to not only turn Arizona red in the 2026 election but also get its slate of candidates elected to office. This was made clear after a recent local election.
In the weeks Charlie Kirk’s death, TPUSA poured its resources into a Mesa city council race, successfully ousting councilwoman Julie Spilsbury.
While Spilsbury, a Latter-day Saint, is a Republican, she supported Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Ruben Gallego in the 2024 election.
TPUSA is ramping up its efforts. Last week, it launched a new Arizona-based political action committee.
Arizona doesn’t vote ideologically, said Adin Lenchner, the founder and principal at Carroll Street Campaigns, based in New York. These voters are deeply concerned about a select few issues, like immigration and the economy.
Trump won in Arizona in 2024, flipping the state back red after losing there in 2020. But Republicans’ victory was split, as voters also chose Gallego over Kari Lake in the Senate race.
“Biden and Kamala paid a price for insisting things were improving while families felt squeezed and you’re now seeing the same dynamic emerge for Trump,” said Lenchner. “He’s calling the economy a ‘plus plus plus,’ at the exact same moment that parents are paying more for breakfast. Gifts cost more than last year while health care costs are rising ... and people are scraping by month to month just to stay afloat.”
The previous cycle, especially with the win of Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor, indicates that working families are looking for candidates who “understand their lived experience,” the political strategist noted.
In the Republican primary, Biggs is up against his colleague Rep. David Schweikert and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is running for reelection.
Hobbs, who previously served as Arizona’s secretary of state, touts delivering the largest investment in child care since the Great Recession, providing rebates to 750,000 families, and repealing the total abortion ban of 1884.
She also holds the title for the most number of bills vetoed, breaking her own record each year and bypassing the Republican-controlled Legislature. This year, she vetoed at least 174 bills.
Schweikert has branded himself as “the Math Guy” in Congress, advocating to reduce federal spending. He was a part of the House Freedom Caucus but eventually distanced himself from the group.
Where Biggs, Hobbs and Schweikert have had careers in politics, Robson wants to come across as the “political outsider” to the voters, according to an ad from Building A Better Arizona, a PAC backed by establishment-aligned and business-oriented Republicans.
Arizona 1st District
Since Schweikert is not running for reelection, the 1st District is wide open. Schweikert won this seat in a close race against Democratic nominee Dr. Amish Shah by roughly 4%.
Shah, a Hindu who served in the Arizona state House of Representatives for three terms, is in the race for the congressional seat again in 2026.
Among Republicans, Gina Swoboda, the Trump-endorsed Arizona Republican Party chairwoman, is in the running.
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely is the latest addition to the race. He originally launched a campaign for Rep. Andy Biggs’ congressional seat but decided to instead run for the 1st District seat. It’s worth noting TPUSA allies also encouraged Feely to run.
Trump encouraged Feely to “run in a different district, or for a different office” in a November social media post.
It’s not uncommon for Trump to have multiple endorsements for a competitive district.
Two other additions to the race are John Trobough, a businessman, who entered the race in early December, and Arizona state Rep. Joe Chaplik, a member of the Legislature’s Freedom Caucus, followed two weeks later.
As the race continues to shape up, the Cook Political Report’s ratings categorize it as an “open” seat, with Republicans holding a slight advantage. This isn’t surprising since Schweikert won within tight margins in 2022 and 2024.
Other competitive races in Arizona
The race for the 2nd District is also shaping up to be competitive between Republican incumbent Eli Crane and former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, a Democrat.
This could be their second matchup after Crane won against Nez by a little less than 10 percentage points. According to the Cook Political Report, this race leans “likely Republican” in favor of Crane. Another Democrat, former Arizona state Rep. Eric Descheenie, is also in the running.
Arizona 6th District Democratic candidate JoAnna Mendoza is working hard to defeat Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani, outraising him in the third quarter of 2025. This district is one of 26 that the national Democratic Party hopes to win next year.